Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/26

Meet Stats: 237 - 753 / $1274.40 (-$209.40)
Best Bets: 37 - 67 / $122.00 (-$12.00)
Spot Plays: 12 - 69 / $97.40 (-$38.60)
Best Bet - TORRIN HANOVER (6TH)
Spot Play - BORN OF FIRE (3RD)
Early Pick 5: 1,3,5/3,8,9/6,9/1,3,7/3,4,5 = $32.40
Late Pick 5: 2/1,2,3/2,3/2,3,6/3,10 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 1,3,7/3,4,5/2/1,2,3 = $27
Late Pick 4: 2,3,6/3,10/2,6/6,7 = $24
20-Cent Mandatory High-5 Payout Tickets: 6,7/6,7/1,2,3,5,11/1,2,3,5,11/ALL and 6,7/1,2,3,5,11/6,7/1,2,3,5,11/ALL for $56 Each for a total of $112

Race 1: NW $22,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000 **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(1) WHEELS ON FIRE did everything but hold off gritty veteran Nickle Bag last week and that rival isn't in here, so he gets the nod. (3) H P NAPOLEON has never been better and although he jumps up again in class, he should be a big threat. (5) SPORTSLINE gets a much better post here and he is likely blasting again. He is in with a chance here and he's the third one that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (4) YACHT SEELSTER is sharp but these are tough. He is likely to finish on the edges this week.

Race 2: NW 3 or $53,000 LT AE: Grassroots Starters

(3) DAY DELIGHT is sharp as a tack and I'll side with him to knock off unbeaten (9) ENAVANT who may just get too far back this time starting from the worst post. (8) NIGHT WATCHMAN gets away from the likes of Tattoo Artist this week and a speed blast would not be surprising; upset chance. (7) BUSH MAN N raced better last week, and he should be in the exotics mix here.

Race 3: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10 AE: NW1 in Last 10 Starts

(6) BORN OF FIRE should appreciate the class and post relief here and he gets top call against these. (9) SPORTS COLUMN also drops, and Macdonald should be blasting early with him; using. (5) HIDDEN DELIGHT improved last week at long odds and while his price will drop here, he should make it into the Trip or Super. (1) AINTNONEBETTOR A exits a tough race at The Meadowlands. He's worth a look for the exotics.

Race 4: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000 - Pick 4

(1) SWEET DEISEL paced a huge mile last week and while these are tougher, he gets the call to repeat. (3) LYONS JOHNNY JNR enters a hot barn shipping north and he obviously has enough speed if he is ready; using. (7) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was dead game racing uncovered last week and he is another who is in with a chance to repeat here. (10) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER should be coming late again; consider for the bottom of the Tri and Super.

Race 5: SHES A GREAT LADY FINAL 2YO

(3) SCARLETT HANOVER has been excellent in her last three starts and I'll take her to knock off (4) CAVIART AUDREY who appeared beatable in both of her past two starts but survived them. (5) NOTORIOUS PINK should get more aggressive in this final and she is another who would be no surprise. (1) VOELZ DELIGHT should sit another good trip and she could upset if everything shakes out her way.

Race 6: NW $8,000 L5 or $17,000 L10 AE: NW $1,000 L3 - Pick 5

(2) TORRIN HANOVER should be mighty tough on the class drop here and a more aggressive steer is very likely; top call. (4) GENERAL JOY A also drops, and he picks up McCarthy. He could be the one to catch if allowed to clear early. (3) PEDRO HANOVER should be passing some of these late and I'll use him in the Tri and Super. (10) HERVEY HANOVER is another closer who should pass a few of these and land on the edges.

Race 7: MILTON FINAL F&M 3YO and OLDER

(3) KISSIN IN THE SAND absolutely flew late to take her elimination and while she was covered up most of the way then, she has shown many times in the past that she doesn't need a perfect trip to win. (1) TREACHEROUS REIGN also was motoring late, and she may pass them all here if the early pace is honest. (2) WARRAWEE UBEAUT got a bit leg weary very late last week but she is still an obvious threat and she’s on my Pick 5 ticket. (4) TRILLIONS HANOVER is the other elimination winner and she could certainly better this placing with a decent trip.

Race 8: METRO FINAL 2YO OPEN

(2) EXPLOIT was compromised at the head of the lane when the horse he was following almost went down and he still finished gamely. McNair takes over the reigns with McCarthy driving the favorite, but I'll call him to upset that likely big chalk (3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER who is undoubtedly the one to beat. (8) LAWLESS SHADOW gets better every week and he should be in the mix early and late. (6) NO BETTER JOY is a good closer to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 9: F&M NW $12,500 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 – Pick 4

(2) DONT STOP BELIEVIN won two straight at one level higher than this five and six starts back and she should be a good price here facing other droppers; call to upset. (6) SUNNY DEE faced some of the best older pacing mares on the continent last week and she makes sense here, but she is still stuck with zero wins in 2020 and I wouldn't take too short of a price here. (3) SYLPH HANOVER's winning mile two starts back puts her in the picture here. She's the third one that I'll use on late multi-race tickets. (10) HELLO LOVE is likely to pass a few of these and land in the Tri or Super.

Race 10: MOHAWK MILLION 2YO OPEN

(3) DONNA SOPRANO gets the biggest test of her young career, but she has post advantage on her main foes and she gets top call here. (10) VENERATE should be able to get a decent start leaving behind the #1 or #2 and if he does, he will be a big threat. (7) ON A STREAK, stablemate to the choice, is in top form and he should get a piece of this. (9) INSTA GLAM goes for a top barn and with Gingras in the bike she can't be counted out.

Race 11: PREFERRED

In a short field, (2) MATTICULOUS GB is a good bet to lead all the way. (6) ROCKME ROLLME should get put into this race early and he is likely to be the main threat. (1) EAST END is likely to get good position leaving the gate and ride a good trip to a on the board finish. (3) NICKLE BAG comes off a nice win, but these are tougher, and a smaller share is likely in this spot.

Race 12: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 – Mandatory Hi-5 Payout

Last time (7) SIR PUGSLEY raced this low (six starts back) he took a new life's mark. He should be aggressive here and he gets top billing. (6) JM JACK OF HEARTS also takes a big drop and he should be a threat racing from close rage. (1) FOOT SOLDIER figures to contend stepping up off a sharp win but I prefer to use him underneath. (11) ROCKIN N TALKIN could get a great trip starting from the second tier and he is on my High-5 tickets. (10) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP is another who should wake up on the class drop, but I'm not sure the second-tier post is great for him and I'll use him underneath only.