Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/25

Meet Stats: 248 - 733 / $1,362.30 (-$104.70)

Best Bets: 36 - 67 / $130.20 (-$3.80)

Spot Plays: 20 - 68 / $148.30 (+$12.30)

Best Bet: LOCATELLI N (4TH)

Spot Play: DEAN B HANOVER (12TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,7/3/3/4/All = $6

Late Pick 5: 5/5,6,8,9,11/2,3,5/9/2,4,6 = $9

Early Pick 4: 4/ALL/5/5,6,8,9,11 = $10

Late Pick 4: 9/2,4,6/1,3,6/2,3,4,5 = $36

Race 1: NW $8,500 L5 or $17,000 L10 AE: NW $85,000 LT **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) HAIL CHRISTIAN N was narrowly beaten at this level last week in a good effort and he keeps driver McCarthy here. He has a big shot tonight. (7) REAGAN BLUE CHIP is fast enough for these on his best day and he could go forward here in this third start back; using. (2) HES SWIFT should be closer at this level and he can win here if he works out a trip racing near the front. (3) UNLOADED N should be good for a share racing near the front.

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Race 2: F&M NW $15,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $110,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000

(3) TREACHEROUS REIGN had broken equipment last time when she dropped to this level and she backed up late. She requalified well and if Alagna has her straightened out, she could dominate these. (5) SNOW SHARK drops but she is tricky because she races best when covered up until very late and she could be used earlier than usual on the class drop which likely wouldn't lead to the best result. I couldn't take a short price here. (6) COUSIN MARY is another dropper who should factor in here and she has upset potential. (4) LAURAS LOVE got a bit of a lucky trip last week, but she roared home when she got room in midstretch. I prefer to use her underneath here.

Race 3: MILTON PACE FINAL FILLIES AND MARES 3YO and Older

(3) LYONS SENTINEL is just too good for these right now and it's hard to imagine the trip that gets her beat. (8) PEAKY SNEAKY was good when 2nd to the choice last week and this improving mare should be an Exacta factor again tonight. (2) JK FIRST LADY seems to be coming around to her best form and she is worth a look for the exotics at a price. (6) ROCKNIFICENT is right there every week but an Exacta with her second likely doesn't pay more than $6 so I'll take a shot against her in that spot.

Race 4: SIMCOE 3YO OPEN - Pick 4

(4) LOCATELLI trotted a 55 3/5 middle 1/2 racing uncovered in the Goodtimes final just to get close to the leaders and that wasn't a trip that was going to get him any money. Expecting a more aggressive steer from McCarthy here, he is my clear top choice. (6) INAMINUTE HANOVER comes in sharp for a hot barn. Give him a price look for the exotics. (8) SPY BOOTH had an impossible trip in the Canadian Trotting Classic and he can improve enough to get a slice tonight. (3) ON A STREAK should be prominent early and I see him sticking around to land in the Tri or Super.

Race 5: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,500 L10 or NW4 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000

This is a good spot for (2) PIRATE HANOVER, who has been facing some of the best sophomore pacers. Jamieson should put him in play on the backstretch and he gets the nod. (4) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE is improving every start and he gets post relief tonight. He's on my multi-race tickets. (1) HP NAPOLEON should get a good trip and take a share in this spot. (8) YACHT SEELSTER made a nice late charge at a price last week and he could enter the picture for a share here.

Race 6: SHES A GREAT LADY FINAL 2 YEAR OLDS - Pick 5

Something's gotta give when the two unbeaten fillies (5) NIKI HILL and (3) PROHIBITION LEGAL meet. To me, the former just seems faster and I will take a stand and single her. (7) JOYRIDE HANOVER was flying late last week but she ran out of racetrack. She has upset possibilities if the two choices hook up in a battle. (1) BOUDOIR HANOVER raced well last week but she was no match for the choice. She should take another good share here.

Race 7: METRO PACE FINAL 2YO OPEN

This year's edition of the Metro looks wide-open to me and I'll swing for the fences with (11) MONTE MIKI, who is improving rapidly and comes off a fast win where he showed gameness. (9) CAVIART CAMDEN has been knocking heads with the precocious Pebble Beach in Kentucky and his 1:48 3/5 win two starts back sticks out. He is a contender but no lock from the 9-hole. (8) TRUE BLUE LINDY is hard to fault and he has already shown an affinity for this track. He's hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (6) WEARINMYSIXSHOOTER broke stride the only time he raced here but you can't count Takter out in these big events where her stock frequently shines.

Race 8: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

Gingras has been trying to leave with (5) SWEET DEISEL but from wide posts he has been forced to take a seat early. From one of the best posts tonight, could land on top early, let one go and work out a perfect pocket trip and I'll give him the nod. (2) SPEEDY DOMINIC A paced a :53 4/5 back 1/2 uncovered on the rim in a good effort and he is one of the main contenders here; using. (3) EAST END steps up off a loss but that was a sharp effort and he figures for at least a share here. (4) THE GREEK FREAK raced okay for Zeron last week in a fast race and he can take a share here.

Race 9: MOHAWK MILLION 2YO OPEN - Pick 4

(9) VENERABLE has the look of a generational filly and she gets the call to beat the boys here despite drawing widest. (4) VELENTINA BLU has raced well since getting shuffled in the Doherty which was won by the choice and she could boost the Exacta payoff tonight; using underneath. (2) KING OF THE NORTH hasn't wowed me in his two races here, but he gets the job done. I'm not sure he can beat the choice if she brings her best race. (6) DOVER IN MOTION gets the big test tonight leaving the friendly confines of Indiana, but he has been sensational and he might be up to it.

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Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS

(2) DESPERATE MAN couldn't be any better right now and he might be a slight overlay because he got a perfect trip to win the North America Cup; top call. (6) BULLDOG HANOVER got a great trip on the engine but he was one-paced late. He has rebounded before and he should be right there tonight. (4) BETTOR SUN was used hard early in a fast race and I don’t see the same kind of battling in this short field. He is in the exotics mix. (3) ARMOR SEELSTER can close late to take another slice.

Race 11: PREFERRED

(6) WARRAWEE VITAL was closest to Abuckabett Hanover in the Gold Cup last week and he figures to blast to the front and lead these on a merry chase tonight. (3) BEST IN SHOW wasn’t far behind the choice and he should get put into play in this short field; Exacta factor. (1) WHEELS ON FIRE should be sharper returning to a 7-day cycle and he isn't without a chance tonight. (4) CENTURY FARROH figures to take another small share here.

Race 12: NW $5,000 L5 or $11,600 L10

(4) DEAN B HANOVER paced the final 1/16th of a mile as though his tail were on fire last week. He was moving that fast. I'll take a shot with him against some class droppers, expecting to get a square price. (3) HERVEY HANOVER jogged in a higher class six starts back and he rates highly on the drop here; using. (2) CAPTAIN VIDEO similarly won at that level seven starts back and he is hard to toss facing NW $5,000 L5. (5) PRICELESS BEACH tripped out last week but the winner was unyielding late. He should land in the Tri or Super here. (1) RHYTHM IN MOTION is a good one to use in the bottom of the exotics.