Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/24
Meet Stats: 501 - 1586 / $2,633.30 (-$534.70)
Best Bets: 80 - 145 / $271.90 (-$18.50)
Spot Plays: 38 - 146 / $262.50 (-$29.50)
Best Bet: SAVE AMERICA (8TH)
Spot Play: GOING FAST (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 2,4,5,8/8/1,2,9/6,8/1,3,6 = $14.40
All Stakes Pick 5: 4,5/1,9,11/4/3,4,6,7,9/1,6 = $12
Late Pick 5: 3,4,6,7,9/1,6/3/3,4,7/2,5,6,7,8 = $30
Early Pick 4: 6.8/1,3,6/4,5/1,9,11 = $36
Late Pick 4: 1,6/3/3,4,7/2,5,6,7,8 = $30
Race 1: METRO PACE CONSOLATION **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**
(4) HUNGRY MAN's 26 2/5 kickers in his past two were futile because of drawing post 9 both times and getting so far back early. Drawing better and facing easier gives him a good chance in this Metro Pace consolation. (5) GOLDIN GREATNESS was aggressive early last week then took a shuffle and found Save America's cover. He couldn't keep up late but I can see him getting a good trip racing near the front tonight; using. (8) BRUE HANOVER drew poorly and dropped back immediately in all three starts vs. Save America. My gut tells me that he will blast here in this easier spot and he is worth a look. (2) STORMALONG is capable vs. this group and he is another that I expect to leave quicker here. He is in with a chance in a wide-open race.
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Race 2: OPEN HANDICAP
(8) FASHION FRENZIE made two moves in the Maple Leaf Trot and he still took a share. He is strictly the one to beat in this spot. (6) HP ROYAL THEO will likely land in the choice's pocket leaving the gate and that makes him a good bet to complete the Exacta. (4) DREAM NATION flew late to win last week now he picks up the leading driver. He should be in the exotics mix. (1) PIKACHU HANOVER should be positioned near the front early and ride a good trip to a share.
Race 3: Winners of 3 but not more than 6 or $80,000 LT AE: 3YO and 4YO to be claimed for $60,000
(2) THATLL BE SPORTY is better than he has shown recently and maybe Tetrick can work his magic here and find him the right trip. I'll take a big swing for the fences with him. (1) MOMAS SON BYRNE was an absolute blur at the wire last week but his move came a fraction of a second too late. He will rightfully take a lot of action here. (9) RON is one of several sophomore stakes types in here gearing up for end of season Gold semi-finals and finals. He can win if he gets put into the race early but intent is a guessing game. (3) ROLL WITH THE FLOW is a sharp shipper that can take a share here.
Race 4: FILLIES and MARES OPEN HANDICAP - Pick 4
(8) WATCH ME NOW N gets away from the top mares on the continent here and she has a big shot to wire these. (9) VOELZ DELIGHT always looked like the winner last week and she can be dangerous if she can find the pocket again tonight; using. (7) WESTERN WISH couldn't be any sharper but she might be a bit overmatched facing the top two choices. I'll use her underneath. (4) SHES GOT IT ALL will probably sit another inside following trip and land in the Super.
Race 5: Pop Up Series Final
(3) GOING FAST has been right there in every leg of this series and he was unlucky last week to get beat by (6) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE, who scooted up the pylons late. This final will likely be decided by these two in the final 1/16th of a mile. (1) FOREFATHER figures to get a much better trip tonight and he should get a good piece of this. (4) ILLGETMYOWN THANKS is always passing horses. He has upset potential here.
Race 6: SHES A GREAT LADY 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES – Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5
(5) SYLVIA HANOVER's only loss so far came when she drew into the second tier and got out-tripped. She draws well here, and she gets the nod to prevail over a filly with an identical 5-1-0 record in six starts, (4) CHARLESTON. The latter was terrific in her elimination, racing uncovered on the rim yet still pacing a 53 3/5 back 1/2 while getting past to win. She will provide a stern challenge to the choice. (3) BELLISIMA HANOVER rode the pocket when 2nd to the choice and she should get a good share of this $525K purse. (7) CAVIART DAVIA is capable of better than she showed last week. I think she sits and rallies into the Super tonight.
Race 7: ELEGANTIMAGE FINAL 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(1) MON CHEVAL looked good winning a prep for this last week and I think she still will offer value in this spot; top call. (9) ADARE CASTLE was passively handled in that race and you know that will change here. She is a threat despite drawing wide. (11) WARRAWEE XENIA is probably the best in here, but with her gait issues she is risky starting from the second tier. What price will you accept? (4) RAISED BY LINDY will be forwardly placed early and she should stick around for a share.
Race 8: METRO PACE FINAL 2 YEAR OLD OPEN
(4) SAVE AMERICA paced a 26-flat third 1/4 racing first up last week and he still drew off late, which is a rare feat for a rookie pacer. He could be a generational talent and I don't see him getting beat here. (5) MOMENT IS HERE paced his best mile to date when 2nd to the choice in the elimination last week and he can complete another Exacta here. (8) TICKERTAPE HANOVER might have been a bit short last week after missing three weeks but he is up against it here drawing wide vs. the choice; using underneath. (2) STOCKADE SEELSTER had his bubble burst last week and he is another that I'll use underneath here.
Race 9: CANADIAN TROTTING CLASSIC FINAL 3YO OPEN - Pick 5
Great betting race here. I'll side with (6) KING OF THE NORTH to stalk the speed and roll by late. (3) KEG STAND comes off two narrow losses but his speed makes him dangerous here. (7) BRANDED BY LINDY is sent out by connections that have had great success here and he is another one in with a good chance. Local hope (4) TWIN B ARCHIE has only missed the Exacta once this year and he has shown versatility. He should be in the exotics mix.
Race 10: MOHAWK MILLION 2 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 4
(6) WINNERS BET moves from the worst post to the best one here and he comes off a big effort in the Champlain that should have him primed to win this $1 million race; top call. (1) OH WELL is the obvious threat and he has shown he can win on the front or stalking the leader; using. (7) SILLY ME HANOVER got a needed clean line last time and he should be put into play earlier here; using underneath. (3) OH LOOK MAGIC has some talent and he will be a big price here with Bax in the bike; price look.
Race 11: NW $12,000 L5 or $28,000 L8 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $65,000
This is a field that (3) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH is supposed to beat although the break in stride last week is a bit concerning. (4) B STONEY had no chance last week because he was in traffic while the winner was sprinting away from the field on the last turn. Once he found racetrack, he flew late. He has upset potential here. (2) COMMANDING OFFICER is sharp and dangerous and he should be a speed threat again; using. (6) CONTROL HEAVEN figures to pass a few of these late and land in the Tri or Super.
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Race 12: PREFERRED 2
(3) CARBINE should be tough here making his second start back from a rest in a spot where he fits well. (4) COLD CREEK CABO looked the winner every step last week while taking a new life's mark and he could beat these if he repeats that mile. (7) CODENAME CIGAR BOX managed to close ground into a 53 1/5 back 1/2 in a 1:47 1/5 mile which shows how sharp he is; using. (6) POSEIDON SEELSTER comes to play every week but I think he gets over bet here and this is no easy spot. I'll play to beat him.
Race 13: NW $12,000 L5 or $28,000 L8 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $65,000
(8) FABRIZIO N drops and he should get aggressive early against this field; top call. (6) WOODMERE STEALDEAL was stellar last week taking a new life's mark vs. lesser and he should be a threat here despite stepping up in class. (2) LEGION SEELSTER was narrowly beaten by a sharp rival at this class last week and he is another to consider for late multi-race tickets. (5) TYPHOON STRIDE N should improve enough on the class drop to take at least a share here. (7) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N is another dropper in with a shot in a great betting race.