Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/21

Top Pick Stats: 510 - 1469 / $2,733.00 (-$199.10)

Best Bets: 71 - 136 / $223.70 (-$48.30)

Spot Plays: 32 - 134 / $312.70 (+$44.70)

Best Bet: HIGHLAND KISMET (9TH)

Spot Play: CODE CRACKER (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,5,6/1/1,2,3,8/2,6/7,8,9 = $14.40

Middle Pick 5: 4,6,8/4,5/2/4/2,4,5 = $3.60

Late Pick 5: 4/2,4,5/5,6/1,6,8/3,4 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 2,6/7,8,9/4,6,8/4,5 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 2,4,5/5,6/1,6,8/3,4 = $7.20

Race 1: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $43,000 IN 2024**Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

I’m not sure that (1) HP LIS SHADOW didn’t leave everything on the track last week when he smashed his lifetime mark, but if he comes close to repeating that mile tonight racing off the Merner claim, he will be tough to beat. (5) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE drops off an improved effort and he is worth using in the Pick 5 at a price. (6) WHEELS ON FIRE was a first up winner last time he raced this low five starts back. He should contend here but he may get overbet. (3) ORDER ONE TO GO should pass a few of these and land in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 2: OPEN TROT

(1) LOGAN PARK is back home where he excels, and he is always the one to beat when facing tonight’s rivals. (5) GAINES HANOVER, who jogged at this level last week has beaten the choice on this track this year and he should be the main threat. (4) OSCEOLA was no match for Gaines Hanover last week, but he should be part of the exotics in this short field. (6) PEMBERTON can pass a couple of these and land in the exotics.

Race 3: F&M 5YO and younger NW3 or $86,000 LT

(3) LIGHTNING LIZZIE was a winner last time she got away from Its A Love Thing and company and she should be looking to go right down the road tonight; top call. (1) SORCHA SEELSTER is another that figures to improve in this easier company and she should be the main threat to the choice; using. (8) COCO JO JO was a good 3rd in the Simcoe but her typical racing style puts her behind the 8-ball. I’ll use her underneath. (2) STONEBRIDGE HALO also produced a good effort in a Grand Circuit race, and she should be in the mix here racing from close range. Gingras being listed to drive won’t hurt.

Race 4: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L4 AE: NW $1,000 in 2024 - Pick 4

(2) CODE CRACKER showed early speed in a tougher field last week and he fits well vs. these. I’ll give him a slight nod expecting another aggressive steer. (6) HUNGRY MAN is sharp, and he draws the bets post as he seeks a threepeat. He should be prominent throughout here. (3) BLOCKBUSTER TRADE just took a new life’s mark last week when beating a weaker field than he faces here. A repeat seems unlikely in this spot. (10) BAYFIELD BEACH finished ahead of the choice last week, but he draws worst here, and a small share is likely for him tonight.

Race 5: OPEN HANDICAP PACE. PP #1-7 DRAWN AND PP #8 & 9 DRAWN

(8) TAURASI gets top billing here based on the post draw. He starts inside his main rival (9) FORTIFY who beat him last week. Post could be the deciding factor in this spot. (7) DRAGONONTHEBEACH should be better here getting an improved post. He has upset potential. (6) WRITE ME A ROSE kicked in 25 4/5 when finishing 4th to the choice and he can take another slice here.

Race 6: ELEGANTIMAGE FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

(8) FRENCH CHAMPAGNE missed a month prior to her elimination last week and Svandstedt will have her sharper for tonight’s final. Call to upset. (4) DRAWN IMPRESSION was perfectly driven in her elimination considering she missed a week, and she should be even sharper for this Grand Circuit final. She’s the one to beat. (6) EMOJI HANOVER rallied well to win her elim and she still has some upside. She is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (1) COLD SNAPS kicked in 26 3/5 last week and she has been good all year. She is a good one to use underneath in this spot.

Race 7: METRO PACE FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN

(4) CAPTAIN OPTIMISTIC easily shrugged off a first-over challenger last week and he should be tough to beat here. (5) FALLOUT was content to follow but when he got an inside lane in the stretch, he couldn’t help but blast through for the win as he was loaded. He should be the main threat to the choice. (2) PRINCE HAL HANOVER raced well against the choice, making a couple of moves and staying for 2nd. He should be in the exotics. (10) BANDERAS is sharp and consistent, and he could sneak into the bottom of the exotics at a price.

Race 8: SHES A GREAT LADY FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

Unbeaten (2) CHANTILLY draws perfectly to keep her record intact, and she should be sharper coming back on a 7-day rotation tonight. (8) THE LAST MARTINI was 2nd to the choice last week and you know McNair will be firing her off the gate. She could provide some Exacta value starting from a wide post tonight. (5) CANT SEE ME looked good last week but she got a perfect trip that is unlikely to get repeated here. I’ll try to beat her out of the Exacta. (10) COWGIRL HANOVER is clearly one of the best fillies but post 10 will probably limit her to getting only a small share.

Race 9: CANADIAN TROTTING CLASSIC FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 5

(4) HIGHLAND KISMET might be the best sophomore trotter on the continent – for sure he is in the top two – and he should get the job done her on his home soil. (1) PAQUET flew home last week, and we likely haven’t seen his best race yet. I can see him rallying for 2nd here. (6) SIR PINOCCHIO won’t be allowed to crawl on the front end racing for $713K here. I’ll try to beat him out of the Exacta which would likely be paying about $5 with him underneath the choice. (5) PRIVATE ACCESS should be better tonight and he can rally to land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 10: MOHAWK MILLION 2YO TROT - Pick 4

(2) MARYLAND caught fire here in the Wellwood final and if he can replicate that effort, his rivals will be racing for 2nd tonight. (5) ONAJETPLANE has developed a lethal late kick and I’ll use him on late multi-race tickets as a price option. Super filly (4) MONALISHI faces the boys here, but she has the fastest mark in this field, and she has shown herself to be fast and tough. She is in with a real chance. (1) EMOTICON LEGACY bounced back to win a weak division of the Champlain. I don’t see any value here considering the choice beat him by 9 1/2 lengths in the Wellwood. He is a play against for me.

Race 11: 5YO and younger NW2 or $35,250 LT AE: 3 YR OLDS N/A $770 P/S LAST 5 STARTS

(5) MIKI RAY raced tough in defeat last week, but the repeat winner refused to be passed. He looks good here starting from the middle of the gate, and he gets top billing. (6) MCWICKED TIME gets both post and class relief tonight and he should be much closer to the front early in the mile. He is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (2) FASNACHT HANOVER rode the choice’s good cover, but he couldn’t pass him last week. I’ll use him underneath here. (1) GANSBAAI moves inside off a decent effort where he closed several lengths on the choice in the back 1/2, but he seems more likely to take a slice than a win in this spot.

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Race 12: GRASSROOTS STARTERS: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(6) BETTERWITHGLASSES is getting sharper as the season progresses and she has a good chance to repeat here starting from the best post. (1) ONE MORE BET took a ride down the 401 to easily grab a big purse and her third win in six starts after starting the year 1 for 9. She is sharp and dangerous, and she should be the main threat despite drawing the rail. (8) WICKED LEADER was motoring late last week, and she should get a good setup for her late kick; price look for the multis. (7) MAKE OUT WITH ME is another coming off a nice closing effort that should kick late to get a share here.

Race 13: 5YO and younger NW4 or $65,000 LT AE: Ontario sired 3YO

(3) CHAIN GANG wins when he doesn’t have to face the likes of Nijinsky and he should get back on track vs. these. (4) WIKIPEDIA beat the choice here on 8/16 and he is the most likely upsetter that is worth a look for late multi-race tickets. (6) LOUS WORLD is another that should improve getting class and post relief, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (2) R J RINGO is razor sharp, but he steps up here and he will likely find some of these too tough; small share predicted. (8) TROPHY TAKER would be rated higher if he drew better. From out there, he likely will be limited to taking a slice.