Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/19

Meet Stats: 225 - 716 / $1222.60 (-$209.40)
Best Bets: 35 - 64 / $116.30 (-$12.70)
Spot Plays: 11 - 66 / $85.30 (-$44.70)
Best Bet: READY FOR MONI (5TH)
Spot Play: ROCKIN IN HEAVEN (13TH)
Early Pick 5: 1,3,6/2,4/5,10/1,2,3,5/6 = $9.60
Late Pick 5: 3,4,5/2,3,10/1/1,3 = $18
Early Pick 4: 1,2,3,5/6/3,4,5/2,3,10 = $36
Late Pick 4: 1,3/2/2,7/1,3 = $8

Race 1: METRO STAKES ELIMINATION 2YO OPEN **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) EXPLOIT gets away from unbeaten Perfect Sting here and he stands a good chance racing on or near the front. (1) BETTOR SUN showed a new dimension last time, sitting then flying late and that should serve him well here; using. (6) PIRATE HANOVER's only bad race came when he broke stride. He should be passing a couple of these late. (4) NO BETTOR JOY is another who can be closer here if he can find a live helmet to follow this time; using underneath.

Race 2: METRO STAKES ELIMINATION 2YO OPEN

(3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER sizzled here last weekend and anything close to a repeat would make him very tough to beat. (2) LAWLESS SHADOW has really come around in his past two starts and if anyone is going to knock the choice off here, it's likely him. (6) CANDY TRADER was a distant 2nd to the choice last week and (1) CONTROL HEAVEN’s good late kick should serve him well to make the final and he should make it into the Super.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO COLTS and GELDINGS

(10) MACHO MARTINI is clearly the best horse in here although if you need a reason to take a shot to beat him, the second-tier post might be it. (5) FASHION FRENZIE has done nothing wrong so far in his four-race career and if he can get the jump on the choice, he may be able to knock him off. (6) FULL OF MUSCLES was only a couple of lengths behind the choice in the Wellwood Final and in this field, he should hit the board. (9) EMOTIONS RICHES has never finished worse than 2nd, a string that will likely end here but he can land in the Super even starting from the worst post.

Race 4: NW $22,000 L5 OR $30,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55K - Pick 4

(1) BEST IN SHOW went too fast, too soon last time and the 26 1/5 third 1/4 that he paced took its toll late. He can rebound here starting from a post from where he should be able to find some cover; top call. (3) MONGOLIAN HERO N is sharp right now and his stalking style should work well in this field. He also gets McCarthy back for a return drive; using. (5) WHEELS ON FIRE's good gate speed makes him dangerous and he fits well in this field. He's on my early multi-race tickets. (2) PERSIMMON A is the kind of horse Gingras might trip out then sneak past them late with; upset chance.

Race 5: CANADIAN TROTTING CLASSIC 3YO OPEN

(6) READY FOR MONI has been dominant with his only loss coming to super filly Ramona Hill in the Hambletonian and he will be hard to beat here at a short price. (2) THREEFIFTYTWO looked much better last week and he should be in the Exacta mix here. (7) HP ROYAL THEO will likely be forced to blast here then let the choice go and he should be in the Tri at the finish. (3) CHESTNUT HILL has improved in his past three starts and he has shown he can take air. He's a good one to use in this Super.

Race 6: MILTON ELIMINATION F&M 3YO and OLDER - Pick 5

(3) WARRAWEE UBEAUT was a powerful winner of the Roses Are Red two starts back and she then tried the boys with no luck. She should be tough in this spot. (4) KISSININTHESAND had a month off due to sickness but her September 8th qualifier indicates readiness; Exacta factor. (5) MAJOR OCCASION A gets McCarthy here and she is capable of a big effort if she can blast early then sit a nice trip near the front. (2) STONEBRIDGE SOUL gets post relief here and she should take a small share.

Race 7: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(10) TORRIN HANOVER is always a contender at this level, and the horse he will follow should leave well; top call. (3) YACHT SEELSTER and Gingras were winners when teamed together two starts back and that reinsman returns here; using. (2) SAMS A CHAMP A finally gets a good post and he's in with an upset chance. (9) FIXED IDEA is capable of doubling up but post 9 might make it tough; using underneath.

Race 8: MILTON ELIMINATION F&M 3YO and OLDER

(1) CAVIART ALLY is the class of this field and she looks ready to unleash a strong effort based on her two recent qualifiers; top call. (3) TRILLIONS HANOVER's effort in the Roses Are Red was very good and she should be a threat here. (4) SO MUCH MORE continues to race well every week and she would be no surprise in this spot. (6) TALL DRINK HANOVER inexplicably backed up last week, but she is obviously capable of better and she should rebound and at least land in the Super.

Race 9: ELEGANTIMAGE 3YO FILLIES

Great battle brewing here between the Hambletonian winner and the Hambletonian Oaks winner. I'll lean slightly to (3) SORELLA, who barely broke a sweat defeating older foes prepping for this. (1) RAMONA HILL is obviously the one to beat and impossible to leave off late Pick 5 tickets. (6) SISTER SLEDGE had a brutal trip at Harrah's Philly, and she can rebound here leaving from the best post; using underneath. (10) WHOSE BLUES could get a great trip here following Ramona Hill off the gate; consider for Tris and Supers.

Race 10: SHES A GREAT LADY ELIMINATION 2YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(1) NOTORIOUS PINK was lights-out here in the Whenuwishuponastar series before knocking heads with a tough filly in Lexington. She gets top billing here over (3) SCARLETT HANOVER, who has really hit her best stride with Gingras at the controls. (4) GAME OF SHADOWS got in some major road trouble last time and she could be a good price option for the Tri/Super. (2) BEST HEAD WEST is in great form and she should be able to sit a nice trip just behind the speed and take a share.

Race 11: SHES A GREAT LADY ELIMINATION 2YO FILLIES

(2) CAVIART AUDREY had to work harder than normal last week winning the Champlain, but she is still the one to beat and I imagine Gingras will take control of this race early. (4) CITY BY THE BAY rode the choice's cover to a decent result last week and she can be an Exacta factor here. (1) TWIN B SUNKISSED has improving from and I see her closing to land in the Tri. (3) VOELZ DELIGHT will likely seek out the same trip as last time and stay glued to the pylons to take a slice.

Race 12: PREFERRED

This is a field that (2) CENTURY FARROH should dominate and I expect that Filion will have him on the lead before they hit the 1/4. (7) FILIBUSTER HANOVER's form has improved over the last month and he might be the one to provide a challenge to the choice here. (6) MATTICULOUS GB is right there every week and he should be in the Tri again here. (3) POINTS NORTH was a game winner of the Pacing Derby consolation and he is another to consider using on the bottom in this spot.

Race 13: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN had an impossible trip last week but he kept coming. Post relief should lead to a better trip and I'll call him for the slight upset over (1) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER who takes a sizable class drop here and is the obvious one to knock off. (6) BETTOR B GOING also faces mostly easier here, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (5) ROCKIN N TALKIN gets a better post which means he should lay closer early and pass some horses as usual, this time to take a share. (10) WESTSLUCKY TERROR is better with his nose on the gate, but he should get a covered trip here and land in the High-5.