Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/14

Top Pick Stats: 496 - 1438 / $2,658.80 (-$214.20)

Best Bets: 70 - 133 / $221.30 (-$44.70)

Spot Plays: 31 - 131 / $286.40 (+$24.40)

Best Bet: TWIN B JOE FRESH (8TH)

Spot Play: WILLYS HOME RUN (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 3,5/6/3,4,6/3,6,8/2,3 = $7.20

Middle Pick 5: 6/1,4,7/1/8/1,2,7 = $1.80

Late Pick 5: 8/1,2,7/2,6/1,2,3,6,9/3,4 = $12

Early Pick 4: 3,6,8/2,3/6/1,4,7 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 1,2,7/2,6/1,2,3,6,9/3,4 = $12

Race 1: SHE'S A GREAT LADY ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

I’ll kick off an evening featuring several Grand Circuit eliminations with a price play, (3) AU JUS HANOVER who seemed to use last week’s start as a prep. She should get put into play this time and she will surely offer value in this spot. I don’t believe we’ve seen her best race yet. (5) MY SWEET LILLY has the fastest mark in the race and is peaking for trainer Takter. She can win on the engine or from off the pace. (6) CANT SEE ME hasn’t finished worse than 2nd but her three wins came off perfect trips and that scenario is unlikely here. I’ll use her underneath. New York Sires Stakes sensation (1) COWGIRL HANOVER is another that hasn’t missed the Exacta. She will need to be faster here, and I’ll play to beat her in this spot.

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Race 2: ELEGANTIMAGE ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(6) DRAWN IMPRESSION is in peak form coming into this Grand Circuit elim, and driver Roy while likely float out and continue a march to the front. She’s the one to beat here. (4) R MELINA is another that is racing very well and she has shown that she can win on any sized track. She should be the main threat. (3) FRENCH CHAMPAGNE just finished 2nd to the Hambletonian Oaks winner in a solid effort and she should be part of the Tri. (5) COLD SNAPS is having a very good season. She should grab a spot in the final.

Race 3: ELEGANTIMAGE ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

I thought (4) WILLYS HOME RUN looked good closing down the middle of the track to finish ahead of nine of her 10 rivals in the Simcoe and I’ll give her the nod here. (3) R LIZA had beaten the choice several times this year and her potent early speed should play well in this short field. (6) COOL MA BELLE got a nice tightener in Monday night, beating up on some older males and she is coming into this race sharp. She can be a big threat here. (5) EMOJI HANOVER is no doubt one of the best fillies in here, but she broke stride on Monday at Pocono, and I won’t take a short price here.

Race 4: NW $18,250 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $27,750 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000 - Pick 4

(3) P L OZZY was terrific winning first up when facing similar two starts back and he is the one to beat on the class drop here. (6) TYGA HANOVER is on a roll, and he has McCarthy listed to drive, but note that Macdonald chose the choice over him. (8) JACK PANIC typically races well at this level, and he won’t get bet much here starting from a wide post; price look for the multi-race tickets. (1) MR IBIZA N will likely sit a trip here and close for a small share.

Race 5: METRO PACE ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN

(2) CAPTAIN OPTIMISTIC’s only loss so far came to (3) PAPIS PISTOL, who had a better trip that night. These two figure to battle for the win here. The nod goes to the former who took the fastest winning mark in this field in his last start. (1) PAPIS ROCKET just won the PASS final, and he has been consistent all year. He should be part of the Tri. (4) D A LOVE BOAT comes off a nice effort in the Champlain and he is worth a price look for the exotics.

Race 6: SHE'S A GREAT LADY ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

Unbeaten (6) CHANTILLY keeps getting faster and she adds Lasix tonight. Beat her to greet the cashier. (8) BONHOMIE HANOVER got a nice tightener here last week and a fairly easy trip. She is worth using here trying to add some value to the Exacta. (2) THE LAST MARTINI races on a big track for the first time tonight and her good gate speed should play in this field. She should get a good share. (7) NICE BUNS steps up of her maiden win, but she is improving, and she can make the final.

Race 7: PREFERRED

(4) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR got a textbook perfect trip and drive in the Pacing Derby and found that the top two were just too tough. Good news is, neither of those rivals are in this race and Oakwood Ardan IR can beat this group. (1) TAURASI had no shot in the Pacing Derby starting from post 11. He is obviously one of the best ones inhere; using. (7) FORTIFY paced a sub-53 back 1/2 to win last week and he will offer a good price tonight moving up to the top class; price look. (10) STOCKADE SEELSTER is racing better every week, but he likely gets only a small share starting from the widest post in the top class tonight.

Race 8: MILTON STAKES FINAL: FILLIES & MARES 3 YEAR OLDS & OLDER

I can’t imagine a way to get (1) TWIN B JOE FRESH beat considering how dominant she has been this year. Enough said. (4) SYLVIA HANOVER was kept buried last week which should have her loaded for a good try here, but I don’t see her upending the choice. (3) SILVER LABEL appeared to move over for her stablemate (6) PROHIBITION LEGAL in midstretch last week. Both of these mares should be in the exotics here.

Race 9: CANADIAN TROTTING CLASSIC ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 5

(8) HIGHLAND KISMET has proven that he is one of the best sophomore trotting colts on the continent and he is clearly the one to beat in this stake. (6) SUPERNOVA HANOVER was first up in a 27 2/5 third 1/4 chasing TCI in the PASS final and that wasn’t ideal. He can be an Exacta factor tonight. (1) PRIVATE ACCESS adds Lasix tonight and he should be in the exotics mix here if he stays flat. (4) AMAZING CATCH has taken eight slices in 13 starts and he should get a share here, likely racing close to the front most of the way.

Race 10: METRO PACE ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 4

(1) SWINGTOWN steps out of Ohio-bred company for the first time tonight, but he will likely be up to the challenge. This looks like the easier elim, and he should be tough to beat. (2) FALLOUT has been chasing monster Louprint lately and three starts back he finished 2nd in the fastest two-year-old mile in history. He figures to be the main threat to the choice. Local hope (7) BOXER SEELSTER looked good last week unleashing a lethal late kick to win his second Grand Circuit race. He is sharp and he should come on late for a share. (4) TWIN B COURAGEOUS is improving quickly. He can close for a slice here.

Race 11: CANADIAN TROTTING CLASSIC ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD OPEN

(6) SIR PINNOCHIO has had an outstanding sophomore campaign so far, only missing the top two once in a race where he broke stride. He will be the one to catch here. (2) PAQUET was too far back in the Simcoe to threaten Highland Kismet, but he did close well to get 3rd. He should be the main threat here. (3) BRYANT BROS S tried Highland Kismet first up and that was an exercise in futility. He has a better chance to land in the top three in this field. (5) MYRETIREMENTDREAM has missed a month, but I can still see him landing in the bottom of the exotics vs. these.

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Race 12: NW $8,300 L5 AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,040 P/S IN 2024. AE: NW $40,500 IN 2024

(2) REIGN SUPREME took a mark of 1:50 three starts back then moved up too high. He fits much better here, and I could see him working out a good trip racing near the front; call to upset. (1) COLD CREEK QUESO’s first start back since July was decent and he should get a solid pace to chase tonight; using. (3) ORDER ONE TO GO is another that should be passing rivals late in this spot, but he might get over bet. Let price be your guide here. (9) ROLL WITH THE FLOW is a dropper that figures to improve tonight and is another to consider in a wide-open race.

Race 13: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $33,500 LIFETIME

(4) MIKI RAY finds a nice NW2 spot here after trying Nijinsky in a Grand Circuit race last week. He is the clear horse to beat. (3) R J RINGO was a strong first-over winner at this level last week. He is sharp and dangerous, and he is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (2) FASNACHT HANOVER should be closer here dropping out of NW2. He is a good one to use underneath. (8) CEREAL ASSASSIN raced well but he couldn’t fend off R J Ringo last week. I’ll use him underneath here. (6) WALLACE HARTLEY shows a stale date, but he adds Lasix. He can land in the High-5 despite having missed some time.