Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/12/26

Top Pick Stats: 499/1599 (-$802.10)

Best Bets: 58/144 (-$41.90); Spot Plays: 32/147 (-$88.40)

Best Bet: PACINO HANOVER (Race 13)

Spot Play: TWENTYDOLLARDOLLY (Race 2)

Early Pick-5: 2,3,6/6,7/3,5/4/7 $2.40

Middle Pick-5: 4/3/2,10/1,2/7,8 $1.60

Late Pick-5: 1,2/7,8/3,6/4,5/8 $3.20

Race 1: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,500 LAST 8 STARTS AE: NW $60,000 IN 2026 (MIN 18 STARTS).

(3) RBSTENACIOUS T gets reunited with his usual pilot and drops another notch in class. He likely overpowers these. (6) ASIAGO SEELSTER got a great trip two back and converted for the win. He draws better tonight and could try to use similar tactics. Still waiting on (2) SNACK ATTACK who I thought had pace late in the mile, but got zero trip luck and couldn’t get a check. Maybe this week.

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Race 2: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: (GR 3). 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES. STARTING FEE: $1,000 CDN ($775 USD).

(7) TWENTYDOLLARDOLLY was unleashed on the front by JBR in her debut, but has been stuck chasing quality fillies from off the pace. She’s second back since the qualifier; I’ll hope to see some gate speed. (6) ACEANDATEN has throttled Grassroots foes in her last two outings. She has held her own against Gold company in the past. (4) MONEY CARLO has been right in the mix all season and just missed in her latest. Her versatility makes her a contender with any trip.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $16,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $40,000. AE: N/A $2,135 P/S IN 2025-2026.

(3) SORCHA SEELSTER had plenty of pace in the final eighth of the mile and gets a major post switch tonight. I think she is rounding into winning form. (5) MADAM X was able to sneak to the outside when it looked like she might face a death shuffle. That was her second move after leaving from post ten and she finished a strong second. Post relief is key. (4) SUNSHINE MAGIC will likely be first to the lead and could work out a nice trip if others don’t quarter move on her.

Race 4: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: (GR 3). 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES. STARTING FEE: $1,000 CDN ($775 USD).

(4) JERSEY BULLDOG was closing best of all in the final eighth but once again couldn’t overcome a final quarter sprint behind top fillies. She’s the best filly in this race and I think she works out a winning trip. (6) BOARDWALK BABE was crushing it in PA until last week. She has just one start at Mohawk but definitely improved when shipping south. Her gate speed could carry her a long way. (1) MAURITIUS is not to be slept on at a price. Her turn of foot can be on par with Jersey Bulldog when at her best. The short field could see her right in the mix.

Race 5: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $52,000 (OS $64,000) LIFETIME.

(7) I LOVE THIS BAR is third back now and will get a pass from me because those were some quick fractions he set last week. (3) SECRET SOCIETY tripped out last week but has now won four of five and can get in the mix with any trip. (10) ILLICIT BEHAVIOR prefers the bigger track because it allows him more time to get into top gear. He likely needs a couple things to go his way when leaving from the high draw.

Race 6: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: (GR 3). 2 YEAR OLD OPEN. STARTING FEE: $1,500 CDN ($1,150 USD).

(4) ATLAS ROSS pushed his unbeaten streak to five after cruising against some of these in his latest. He draws well and will look for a half dozen wins to kick off his career. (2) YES I AM HANOVER was never threatening Atlas Ross but he got late pulled on near the top of the stretch by Cattletracks. He still picked off that rival and has been holding his own. (8) L A CAPTAIN had to wait for room to materialize in the stretch and by the time he reached top gear, Mascarpone had too much momentum. Interestingly enough, J-Mac sticks.

Race 7: SIMCOE: (GR 3). 3 YEAR OLD OPEN. STARTING FEE: $1,500 CDN. ($1,150 US).

(3) BEAU JANGLES needed to do some serious pacing once he angled to the outside, and he did just that. It was the best we’ve seen him look in months. We’ll see if there’s an encore tonight. (1) SWEET LOVIN LOU returns to Mohawk after some serious efforts against Grand Circuit rivals. That Cane Pace win came seemingly out of nowhere but he raced huge. He’ll look to slot right back in provincially. (4) REDLAND ROCKET MAN couldn’t have done much more in his latest, but Beau Jangles just overpowered him. He continues to remain sharp.

Race 8: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $24,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $80,000. AE: NW $100,000 LIFETIME.

(2) WAFFLE BLUE CHIP had little chance given the post draw and trip he got. It’s a major post switch for a horse that loves to go down the road on occasion. (10) DUBLIN DASHER was probably best in last week’s race, but Chain Gang got him stuck in the pocket and forced him to swing wide. The post should inflate his price. (3) HELLUVA N returns to Mohawk after a try in the Gold Cup and Saucer. His turn of foot around the bigger oval should have him in the mix despite a few weeks off.

Race 9: OPEN.

(1) CRACK SHOT was dominating the Opens before a few Grand Circuit tries. He fits much better against these types. (2) SUGAR MAN found enough live cover to get him into the race, but he was lethal in the stretch when he flipped wide. If he sits just behind Crack Shot, he could outsprint him late. (6) DALTON SHARD N eventually grinded to the lead and got the win, but now has to face off against a dynamic duo to his inside. He is likely an underneath use at best tonight.

Race 10: NW $2,650 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,510 P/S IN 2025-2026.

(8) SHOTGUN JERRY came through for yours truly last week after a nice steer. I don’t see anything here that really towers over him. Why can’t he repeat? (7) PAC MAN HANOVER moved to the front last week but paid a price with those quick fractions. I’m not sure what trip he prefers tonight, but a horse like (5) INSTANTANEOUS could tow him right into the race. He gets post relief tonight and likes to sustain his moves on the outside. One of the grinders that never seems to fade.

Race 11: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(3) STROBE LITE didn’t lose anything in defeat in his latest and should have every chance to get to the lead and bottom out his rivals. (6) TOUCHEDBYANANGEL had to grind for a piece behind the top two but likely shows more gate speed this week. It should work in his favor. (4) TOSS OF THE DICE took a trip to Hanover in his latest and scored a big pot. He has raced very well this year but is usually a second-tier type when in Gold events.

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Race 12: NW $1,100 LAST 4 STARTS (W/O $9,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: NW $17,750 IN 2026.

(5) HONOLULU VACATION was better in his latest and could pick off some rivals who are known to produce cheap speed. Tote board might tell us plenty in a potentially open race. (4) LARRY KARR has been trusted in the past to produce wins on the front end, but he has no doubt lost some velocity on his fastball. We’ll see what he can do with a good draw this week. (3) FOREFATHER has been lacking in form lately but drops to the bottom level to try and spark a rally.

Race 13: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,500 LAST 8 STARTS AE: NW $60,000 IN 2026 (MIN 18 STARTS).

(8) PACINO HANOVER just missed in his latest after a sharp stretch rally. I’ll go right back to one of my favorite horses on the grounds. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT only lost by half a length but never really challenged at any point. The lack of wins of late are a cause for concern if you’re looking to play him on top. (1) P L OLIVER has plenty of early speed and could set himself up well from a sometimes tricky rail starting spot.