Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/12

Meet Stats: 208 - 659/ $1143.40 (-$174.60)
Best Bets: 33 - 59 / $111.40 (-$6.60)
Spot Plays: 11 - 61 / $85.30 (-$36.70)
Best Bet: CAVIART AUDREY (11TH)
Spot Play: HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST (10TH)
Early Pick 5: 5/ALL/2,3,7/1,4,6/7 = $10.80
Late Pick 5: 2,3,5,8/1,2,4,7/2,6/3,6/3 = $12.80
Early Pick 4: 1,4,6/7/2,3,5,8/1,2,4,7 = $48
Late Pick 4: 2,4/3/4,5,6/3,4,7,8,10 = $30

Race 1: SIMCOE 3YO FILLIES **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) LADY LOU is only 2 for 21 lifetime, but she has regularly faced the best and there are no Party Girl Hills in here so she should convert at a short price. (4) BETALADY flew home to win in a Gold race last weekend and she should contend for a spot in the Exacta here. (2) SEX APPEAL had a food race off the shelf and she is likely to be close early here. She should be in the Tri. (7) ALICORN gets no favours with the draw and she is likely to be a fringe player tonight.

Race 2: CHAMPLAIN 2 YEAR OLDS

(6) TWIN B EAGLE shows wins and breaks on his card and if he can stay flat here, he rates highly in this small but contentious field. (4) TWIN B EDGE is certain to be sent hard for position by Gingras and that could be critical in this short field; using. (1) PERFECTBOY HANOVER was used hard early in the Nassagaweya and he could get a much better trip here; another possibility. (2) CONTROL HEAVEN did well to hit the board in a Grand Circuit race in only his second start. This race should come down to trip.

Race 3: NW $24,500 L5 or $33,000 L8 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000

(7) EAST END did well to be beaten only four lengths in the Canadian Pacing Derby and he should be tough to beat in here if he gets a reasonable trip. (3) WHEELS ON FIRE has been used hard in his last two and he is capable of better if he can get a slightly easier trip; using. (2) ROCKME ROLLME certainly qualifies as a contender based on his most recent start, and he has shown in the past that he is capable of laying closer to the pace early; using. (4) SPORTSLINE is sharp and capable of taking another share off a covered trip.

Race 4: SIMCOE THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

(1) LAURAS LOVE provided cover for the eventual winner last week in a solid effort and she could be more aggressive here; slight nod in a tough race. (4) KARMA SEELSTER just missed in a good try and she could get another nice trip here; using. (6) PERFECT STORM may go off favored here dropping out of the Fan Hanover and she is obviously in with a good chance but probably not worth a short price. (5) PREEMINENCE is sharp and she can come on late to take a slice.

Race 5: PEACEFUL WAY 2YO FILLIES

(7) DONNA SOPRANO has looked special right from her debut race and she is relentless when chasing down a leader. She should be tough to beat here as we likely haven't seen her best race yet. (8) DREAM CHAPTER gave the choice a stiff challenge last week and she should be the main foe again here. (4) DICENTRA, stablemate to the choice, has good tactical speed and she should be in the exotics mix her as should (5) YOU WILL BE QUEEN who has done nothing wrong to this point and can hit the ticket again.

Race 6: CHAMPLAIN 2YO FILLIES – Pick 5

(2) VOELZ DELIGHT was an unlucky loser at Grand River in that she did all the heavy lifting only to be picked off late by the filly that rode her cover. I'll give her a slight nod here. (3) SCARLETT HANOVER is razor-sharp right now and she should be right there at the wire. (5) TWIN B SUNKISSED tripped out to beat the choice at Grand River but she's not out of this. (8) BEST KEEPSAKE was a sure winner at huge odds two starts back here when she ran in, interfering with her stablemate. Her race at Grand River was decent. You could land on worse longshots than her tonight.

Race 7: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10

(4) THE DOWNTOWN BUS woke up as expected last week, but he couldn't get to a sharp winner late. I’ll stick with him here. (2) HP NAPOLEON is obvious on the class drop but he has been more apt to take slices rather than wins this year so far; demand a price. (7) ROYAL RENEGADE gets Cullen back and he will offer a square price in a race where he has a reasonable chance. (1) BORN OF FIRE is sharp and he gets his nose back on the gate here. He has the look of one of those Auciello upsetters who wins then after the race you say: "Why didn’t I use him?”

Race 8: SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE 3 YEAR OLD OPEN

(2) CAPT MIDNIGHT gets McCarthy here and I expect a more aggressive steer; top call. (6) THE GREEK FREAK is fast and consistent and probably the one to beat in here; using. (4) BEAUMOND HANOVER was no match for a sharp rival that likely would be third choice if he were in this race. I'll use him underneath. (1) RHYTHM IN MOTION can use his big closing kick to take a share here.

Race 9: WELLWOOD MEMORIAL FINAL 2YO OPEN

(6) MACHO MARTINI had an easy time of it in his elimination and that could serve him well here when he gets asked to turn on the afterburners; slight nod in what should be a great race. (3) SOUTHWIND TYRION is the other undefeated colt and the one that the choice will have to beat. It's hard to split hairs here for the late Pick 5; using both. (2) ON A STREAK was sharp in defeat last week and he is in the exotics mix here. (10) MAGICAL MUSCLE MAN could be a good one to use on the bottom to try to get a good Super payoff here.

Race 10: CHAMPLAIN 2 YEAR OLDS – Pick 4

(4) HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST has come around quickly racing at Mohawk Park and he gets Henry now; call to upset. (2) ABUCKABETT HANOVER was perfectly tripped-out by McClure to win the Nassagaweya now he draws inside and McCarthy takes over the reins. He's the one to beat at what will likely be a short price. (3) CANDY TRADER should be coming on late again to take a slice. (5) AMAZING BET never misses the top four; using in the Super.

Race 11: CHAMPLAIN 2YO FILLIES

(3) CAVIART AUDREY has looked every bit a superstar so far in her short career and she simply stands out here. (2) ADASHIOUS HANOVER suffered interference from her stablemate last time although she would have still been second. She could spice up this Exacta. (5) GAME OF SHADOWS has improved in her past two starts and she can take a slice here. (1) ALWAYS BE DEO is another with good form who can come on late to take a share.

Race 12: SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE 3YO OPEN

(6) WARRAWEE VITAL has really turned up his speed in his last two starts and I'll give him the nod over (4) MONEYMAN HILL who rode a great drive and trip to a 3rd-place finish in the North America Cup and is obviously one of the ones in here. (5) CAPTAIN BARBOSSA will be stalking and if the top two engage in any battling he could roll right by. (2) ANETO often outruns his odds. He is worth a look for the bottom of the Super here.

Race 13: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(3) FIXED IDEA has had a couple of starts back now vs. tougher and he should be ready to produce his best effort; top call. Gingras chose (8) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN over a horse he won with last week and he is sure to motivate him early; using. (4) AMERICAN VIRGIN races better with his nose on the gate and he should take a piece of this. (7) AWESOMENESS is in sharp form and he should be passing many of these in the back 1/2; using underneath. (10) SAMS A CHAMP A is another who will be passing rivals that should hit the ticket.