Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/11

Meet Stats: 220 - 623 / $1,172.10 (-$91.90)

Best Bets: 31 - 58 / $115.40 (-$0.60)

Spot Plays: 19 - 58 / $144.90 (+$28.90)

Best Bet: VENERABLE (3RD)

Spot Play: CENTURY HEINEKEN (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,4,5,8/6/4/4,5,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 = $28.00

All Stakes Pick 5: 3,5,6/3,4/4,5/2,3,4,5,8/3,4 = $24

Early Pick 4: 4,5,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9/8/3 = $28

Late Pick 4: 2,3,4,5,8/3,4/1,9/1,2,5 = $60

Race 1: NW $5,000 L5 or $12,000 L10 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) JM JACK OF HEARTS blew up the tote board to the tune of a $76 mutuel price last time he raced this low and I'll give him the nod in a wide-open race to kick off a great card. (4) GOING FAST made a couple of moves in that race and was nailed late. He should improve on the class drop tonight; using. (3) UNLOADED N has tactical speed and improving form and he could trip out and pounce late here. He is another Pick 5 possibility. (1) DREAMFAIR MOXY raced well here the other night and was nailed right on the line by a chalk that took the inside route the entire race and still barely got there. He has upset possibilities stepping up one level and returning in less than a week.

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Race 2: OPEN HANDICAP

(6) SINTRA often comes up large on the biggest cards and I see him vaulting past late to take an Open win on North America Cup night. (7) WARRAWEE VITAL has a much better chance of making front tonight and that makes him dangerous in this spot. (8) CENTURY FARROH finished ahead of the choice in the Pacing Derby and he should get good position early in here. He's not out of this. (5) MAYHEM HANOVER steps up off a lifetime-best score. I see him taking a small share this week.

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Race 3: PEACEFUL WAY FINAL 2YO FILLIES

(4) VENERABLE couldn't have won any easier last week without coming close to needing to produce a top effort. She towers over these. (3) ADARE CASTLE has been great winning Golds and a Grand Circuit race while staying unbeaten but this is likely where that streak ends; using underneath. (6) AMERICAN BEAUTY closed nicely in her elimination for this race and she should take a good share tonight. (9) DABRA DAY was a distant 2nd to the choice and she could land in the Super if she flashes speed again tonight.

Race 4: CHAMPLAIN 2YO - Pick 4

(4) BOB LOBLAW got eliminated in the stretch last week when he tried the inside route when looking like he was full of pace. Once his path was shut off, there was little hope of getting a check. He should have a good chance in here racing on or near the front. (8) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS has raced great in several races in a row while showing he can race effectively deploying several styles. He's hard to leave out of multi-race bets. (7) MARKET BASED has flashed big speed in Pennsylvania and he fits here. The question will be how sharp he is coming off a vet scratch. I'd demand a price. (5) NAUTICAL HANOVER showed little when overbet in a Grand Circuit race last time, but his best effort gives him a chance here and his price will be better. He is another multi-race option.

Race 5: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(9) SWEET DEISEL was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths in the top class here with Gingras driving on 8/28 and that teamster returns. I'll give him a slight nod in one of the more wide-open races on the card. (6) SPEEDY DOMINIC A made two moves in a decent effort racing at a higher level. He could trip out here and convert. (2) HES SWIFT has a habit of blowing up the tote board and he is worth a look at a price here for multi-race tickets. (3) BETTORBUCKLEUP should be closer early here and that gives him a chance in this race where the winner will likely trip out.

Race 6: 3YO OPEN

(8) CENTURY HEINEKEN paired up 1:49 2/5 miles and he was razor-sharp winning on 8/28 pacing sub-27 opening and closing quarters. He should be tough in here. (1) PIRATE HANOVER flies home every week but he often finds himself out of position. Perhaps he will leave a bit better in this easier spot; Exacta factor. (6) SUMMA CUM LAUDE just missed making the North America Cup final. He should be closer here and take a slice. (7) FOREFATHER is capable of contending here and his break last time was caused by broken equipment; consider for the exotics.

Race 7: GOODTIMES FINAL 3YO OPEN – $100K GTD. All Stakes Pick 5

(3) LOCATELLI was impressive winning while first-over in his elimination and trainer Takter is deadly in these stakes finals. I'll give him the nod in a race that has at least three solid options. (5) FASHION FRENZIE couldn’t be better right now and he has a good chance to take a Grand Circuit win here; using. (6) DANCINGINTHEDARK M was carefully driven last week and he raced well to qualify for the final. He still seems like a risky play to me and he is likely to get overbet tonight; your call. (1) ON A STREAK can improve tonight making his second start since 7/24; consider for the exotics at a price.

Race 8: FAN HANOVER FINAL

This should be a good battle between (4) FIRE START HANOVER and (3) HOT MESS EXPRESS. I’m of the opinion that there isn't much between these two fillies currently, so I'm going to lean to the former who should offer a better price. (5) NOTORIOUS PINK led to the stretch in her elimination and she should be good for a share here, perhaps racing off a helmet this time. (6) GAME OF SHADOWS can get another good trip starting from a good post and land in the exotics at a price.

Race 9: CHAMPLAIN 2YO Fillies

(5) SILVER LABEL has been lights out winning every start by more than a length and she should be the one to beat here. (4) BOUDOIR HANOVER flew home to win in Lexington, but she got a perfct trip tracking slow fractions. She is a threat but she could get overbet off that line. (3) SMUGGLE TINA produced a nice closing kick here last week in a Grand Circuit race and she has upset possibilities here with Dunn in the bike. (6) TREACHEROUS KISS should flash early speed again, sit a trip and land in the Tri or Super.

Race 10: WILLIAM WELLWOOD MEMORIAL FINAL 2YO - Pick 4

(8) PRETENDER made a couple of moves in his elimination and finished well. I'm going to take a stab with him in a race that looks like he might set up for a closer that makes the last move in the lane. (4) PERICULUM was sitting pretty when (2) KING OF THE NORTH tired and drifted out last week and his good tactical speed gives him a good chance in this final. The latter looked kind of one-paced for much of that mile, perhaps a product of being off for a month. He could bounce back here, but I'm not willing to take a short price after what I watched last week. (3) DULY RESOLVED may be rated a bit low here but I just feel that this is a much tougher assignment for him; using on the bottom.

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Race 11: NORTH AMERICA CUP FINAL

I hate to eat chalk in a race like this, but (4) BULLDOG HANOVER keeps showing that next to impossible trips for most horses are a piece of cake for him. It's hard for me to imagine a colt that paced 25 4/5 and 26 1/5 closing quarters racing uncovered while pulling away in his elimination getting beat tonight. (3) PERFECT STING dug in to win his elimination and he is the obvious alternative to the choice and he will be a clear second choice in the wagering. (5) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH has been good in both local starts and if you are looking for one to upset the two choices, you could do worse than land here. (6) DESPERATE MAN paced a big back 1/2 following the choice and he should get a piece of the $1,000,000 purse.

Race 12: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW $80,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(9) POINTS NORTH drops and gets Macdonald and an aggressive try is coming here; top call. (1) LETS GET PICKLED has never been better and his capability to pace a sub-54 back 1/2 makes him a threat here; using . (5) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER should show speed again and I see him hanging around for a share. (6) DEAN B HANOVER has faced some good sophomores recently but this is no easy spot and I see him taking a small share tonight.

Race 13: NW $8,400 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: NW $70,000 LT High-5 Mandatory Payout w/ carryover

(2) REAL WILLEY dropped to this level last week, got an impossible trip from the worst post, and he still managed to close 10 lengths in the back 1/2. He could be sitting on a big race tonight and McNair will put him into play from this much better post. (1) ROCKME ROLLME has paced two big miles in a row in this class setting or pressing strong fractions in both cases. He should be right there again this week. (5) GROOVY JOE was right there last time he raced at this level two starts back. He had the rail that night and gets a better post here and I like that leading driver Macdonald chose him over two others. He is the third horse that I will use in all positions in the High-5. (3) HP NAPOLEON is in solid form and he gets a driver upgrade to Filion here. He should land in the High-5 vs. these. (11) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES has a big late kick on his best day and he could add some value to this High-5.

20-Cent Pick 5 ticket: 125/125/123511/123511/All = $57.60