Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 8/31

Top Pick Stats: 473 – 1373 / $2,562.60 (-$183.400)

Best Bets: 67 – 128 / $213.80 (-$42.20)

Spot Plays: 30 – 125 / $283.20 (+$33.20)

Best Bet: DRAWN IMPRESSION (3RD)

Spot Play: CALICOJACK HANOVER (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,4,8,9/8/9/4,5,6/3,5,6,9 = $12

Late Pick 5: 3/3,5,9,10/1,2,6/6,10/2,5,9 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 4,5,6/3,5,6,9/3/3,5,9,10 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 6,10/2,5,9/1,4,6/2,6,10 = $10.80

Race 1: NW $27,550 L5 AE: W/O to draw outside **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) WRITE ME A ROSE was beaten less then three lengths when facing a couple of the best older pacers on the continent last week and he has a good shot here facing easier. (3) DRAGONONTHEBEACH missed close to a month, but it didn’t matter as he surged late to get the decision last week. He is in tougher now, but he is sharp, and McCarthy is listed to drive; using. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT raced okay against Taurasi and he won twice in 1:49 previous to that start. He gets Gingras now and he is another in with a shot in a good race to kick off the early Pick 5. (9) JABBERWOCKY gets Zeron tonight and he has teamed him to some fast wins here in the past. If he can clear, he might get brave in this spot and he is yet another possibility for the Pick 5.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 4. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES

(8) CHANTILLY is hard to go against here. They all get beat at some point, but she likely extends her win skein tonight. (3) PICK ME UP HANOVER is the other unbeaten filly in here. She jumps into the deep end tonight, but she picks up Dunn who can make speed better than most. She can be an Exacta factor. (7) WICKEDPACE hasn’t missed the board yet and she likely keeps that streak going racing close to the front. (10) PERFECTLY CHIC looked good winning a Grand Circuit race last week but she is up against it starting from the widest post this time.

Race 3: SIMCOE: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(9) DRAWN IMPRESSION was outstanding winning the Casual Breeze last weekend and it’s hard to imagine her getting beat here. (8) EMOJI HANOVER was no match for the choice, but she draws inside her tonight. She likely completes another Exacta here. (2) COOL MA BELLE got a clean line and closed for a share. She should be in the exotics mix again. (10) R LIZA is having a great season, and she picks up Zeron tonight, but a small share is likely her ceiling in this spot.

Race 4: 5YO and younger NW3 or $50,000 AE: 3YO N/A $1,475 P/S in L5 - Pick 4

(5) CALICOJACK HANOVER was kept buried last week coming off a rest and when he finally got room late in the mile, he flew late. He should get put into the race this time and he should be loaded for a big try; top call. (4) STONEBRIDGE THRILL produced a big late kick to fall just short and he draws better now. He should be the one to fend off late. (6) TROPHY TAKER adds Lasix, and he is capable of better than he showed in his last start. He is another to consider for the early multi-race tickets. (8) CHALK HANOVER is worth a look for the exotics picking up Gingras this time.

Race 5: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,750 L10 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: NW $44,500 in 2024 (Min. 14 starts)

(3) ORDER ONE TO GO finally gets an inside post which should mean he gets placed better leaving the gate. If Roy can get him into a live flow, he can beat these. (9) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B exits six straight races where the winner paced under 1:50. He will likely get activated early vs. these and that makes him a threat. (5) BOSTON BOUND’s form is good, but his racing luck hasn’t been great recently. He is another in with a shot here and he may get more aggressive in this spot. (6) CODE CRACKER couldn’t get past a resilient class dropper last week but that was a solid effort, and he is in the mix here.

Race 6: SIMCOE: 3 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 4

A solid argument could be made that (3) HIGHLAND KISMET was best in the Hambletonian and he stands out here. Beat him to greet the cashier. (2) PAQUET has looked like he could be a special trotter in his first two starts and he has the chance to prove it here against the choice which is no easy feat. I’ll use him underneath. (5) BRYANT BROS has improved form for trainer Svandstedt. He should be in the exotics mix here. (6) WILLOWTIME, stablemate to the choice, took his first win of the year in his last start and he should flash speed here again. He can stick around for a share.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 4: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS

(10) SMILING DANCER takes on Gold colts here but his late speed should play well in this spot. Post 10 should add value, too; price play. (9) BOXER SEELSTER beat some good colts to win a Grand Circuit race last week and he is hard to leave out in this sires stake. (5) FIFTH AND FIVE got outsprinted late but that was a good bounce back effort coming off a tough trip in the Battle of Waterloo. I could see him tripping out this time; using. (3) STERLING CHOICE gets Dunn and that makes him worth a look for multi-race tickets.

Race 8: CANADIAN PACING DERBY FINAL: 3 YEAR OLDS & OLDER

(6) ABUCKABETT HANOVER flew late to win here last week, and he should get plenty of pace to chase here with the speed lined up on the far outside of the gate. Dunn can work out the winning trip here starting from the best post. (1) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR should find a live helmet to follow this time and that makes him dangerous; using. (2) IT'S MY SHOW was better last week, and he is in with a shot at what should be a good price tonight. (10) RUTHLESS HANOVER would be rated higher if he drew better. Post 10 is the great equalizer.

Race 9: NW $14,000 L5 or $21,500 L10 AE: NW9 LT - Pick 4

(6) MR IBIZA N fell just short to a tripped-out rival last week now he draws best. He steps up which should help his price and he gets McNair back tonight; slight nod. (10) STOCKADE SEELSTER could fall into a nice pocket trip here assuming both he and (9) UNCLE SHANK A both blast off the gate as expected. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. The latter will lead for as far as he goes. He can stick around for a share in this spot. (1) REIGN SUPREME was bet like he couldn’t lose, and he tripped out to take a new life’s mark. This is a tougher spot, and a small share is likely for him this time.

Race 10: MAPLE LEAF TROT FINAL: 3 YEAR OLDS & OLDER

(5) PERICULUM got the trip stalking big speed last week, but he exploded late and won like he was much the best. He should get another fast pace to chase here, and he should be hard to fend off. (9) M M'S DREAM missed close to three weeks between starts and she should be sharper now. I could see her landing in mid pack early and getting a good trip; using. (2) LOGAN PARK inherited the win when the favorite broke on the lead, but he is right there in every start and his positional speed always makes him dangerous. (10) GAINES HANOVER is capable vs. these, and he is worth using underneath at what should be a big price.

[DRF HARNESS: Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter]

Race 11: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(4) THE VICAR draws perfectly here to stalk the leaders and pounce late and I’ll give him top billing in this spot. (1) MCPLEASANT just beat the choice and he has won four of his last five. He is too sharp to leave off late multi-race tickets. (6) CEREAL ASSASSIN won the battle but lost the war last week in a race where the leaders stopped in late stretch. He should get a better trip here and he is another contender in a good betting race. (3) DANCELIKE EHSKIPPR should pass a few of these late and take another slice here.

Race 12: F&M NW $14,550 L5

This looks like a race that will be won by the pocket sitter, and (6) MS QUICK SAND has a good chance to grab that spot leaving the gate from the best post. (10) ALABAMA HANNAH finished ahead of several in this field last week and she might get overlooked from post 10; using. (2) FIRSTOFANERA draws much better and Macdonald sticks with her over (4) JM BETONSIX who he won with last week. The former is worth using in the Pick 4 at a price and the latter can take a slice. (3) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL takes a lot of checks, and she will likely close for a small slice here.