Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 8/29

Meet Stats: 174 - 569 / $998.20 (-$139.80)
Best Bets: 27 - 51 / $85.10 (-$16.90)
Spot Plays: 11 - 53 / $85.30 (-$20.70)
Best Bet: ATLANTA (4TH)
Spot Play: ISLAND BEACH BOY (9TH)
Early Pick 5: ALL/1,5/2,5,6,8,10/4/7,8,9 = $42
All Stakes Pick 5: 2,3,6/3,4/2,3,5,7,9/3,4,5,6,7,8/4 = $36
Early Pick 4: 4/7,8,9/3,4,8/2,3,6 = $27
Late Pick 4: 3,4,5,6,7,8/4/5,6,7/5 = $18

Race 1: ETERNAL CAMNATION 2YO FILLIES **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

Races 2,4 and 5 look chalky so let's try for some early Pick 5 value here with (2) ADASHIOUS HANOVER who was used hard in her first start out of the Beaton barn and could pop here at a price with a different trip. (5) ANDRA DAY has been solid in every race but the Battle of the Belles final which can be blamed on the dreaded 8-hole. She is likely the one to beat. (6) GAME OF SHADOWS made a power move on the final turn, but she couldn't hold off two foes that were coming right behind her. She can take a share here. (4) NIGHTLIFE SEELSTER easily repelled the pocket-sitter last time and she is another that merits a look in a contentious opener.

Race 2: ETERNAL CAMNATION 2YO FILLIES

(5) CAVIART AUDREY made a stunning wide move late that you rarely see in a debut race on July 13th then came back to win only to be set back. She will need to knock off unbeaten (1) BET ON BECKY, but I think she's up to it. The latter is hard to leave off early Pick 5 tickets. I think you use both fillies and move on. (6) POSTSCRIPT should be passing fillies late if she stays on stride this time; using underneath. (2) ALUMNI SEELSTER gets Filion back here and that should spark improvement.

Race 3: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10

(10) SCOUTS REPORT is razor-sharp right now and he will be a square price moving up. He is another who I will hope to create some Pick 5 value with. (8) IWONTDOTHATAGAGAIN takes a big class drop here and a Roy speed blast is likely coming. He's the one to beat. (6) SO MUCH BETTOR has been in some tough spots recently and kicked home well and still had nothing to show for it. He could fare much better here. (5) NIRVANA SEELSTER drops and is another in with a shot in a race that demands deep Pick 5 coverage.

Race 4: ARMBRO FLIGHT FINAL F&M 3YO and Older - Pick 4

(4) ATLANTA stands out here with Manchego not in the field and she will be very hard to beat. (3) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP has improving form and she will likely be the danger if there is to be one. Local hope (2) HEY LIVVY raced tough against aged males here on Monday night and she should be in this Tri. (7) FELICITY SHAGWELL S looks next best and she can round out a chalky Super.

Race 5: PREFERRED HANDICAP Pick 5

(8) AMERICAN HISTORY looked dynamite here last week, and he gets post advantage on his main foe (9) DANCIN LOU whom won the Breeders Crown here last year. Slight nod to the former but using both in the Pick 5. (7) SINTRA stayed sharp pacing a 52 3/5 back 1/2 here last week and he's not out of this but he could end up being at a tactical disadvantage again. (1) THE DEVILS OWN N took a fast mark last week that I downgrade a bit because it was the first race of the day with the sun still beating down and the air still warm. Two hours later, that is around a 1:50 mile; using on the bottom.

Race 6: NW $22,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000

(3) BEST IN SHOW was too far back last week and he still made a race of it. He will be closer early here and that gives him a big shot. (4) EASY LOVER HANOVER has a similar profile and I expect a more aggressive try here from him, too. (8) PLAY JET RAY was hammered at the windows and he delivered but this is tougher, and I'll use him underneath. (6) HERVEY HANOVER should pass a few of these late and finish on the edges.

Race 7: NASSAGAWEYA – 2YO OPEN - All Stakes Pick 5

(3) PIRATE HANOVER was impressive flying late to win his debut and he will likely improve here in his second start; top call. (2) DEAN B HANOVER is unbeaten, but he needed the wire last time. I wouldn't take a short price. (6) CANDY TRADER is capable of better and he should get put into this race earlier. He's on my Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (7) BAZOOKA HANOVER is in solid form, but post might hurt him here; using underneath. .

Race 8: FAN HANOVER FINAL 3YO FILLIES

(3) PARTY GIRL HILL seemed to finish with something in reserve last week and I'll give her the nod to keep her perfect record intact. (4) PEAKY SNEAKY was faster at every fraction and she could pose a big threat here. I'll use both fillies in the late Pick 5. (5) LADY LOU provided relentless pressure on the choice in a good effort and she should be in this Tri. (1) KARMA SEELSTER should sit another good trip and sneak into the Tri or Super.

Race 9: NASSAGAWEYA – 2YO OPEN

(3) ISLAND BEACH BOY didn't get clear sailing until it was too late in the Dream Maker final. He can upset here with a better trip. (5) BETTOR SUN carved some swift fractions and was passed late by a tough rival. He is in with a good chance here. (9) ABUCKABETT HANOVER has the fastest mark in the race but the 9-hole is no picnic here; demand a price. (2) CAPTAINOFROCKNROLL should improve moving inside but I prefer to use him underneath.

Race 10: ROSES ARE RED FINAL – Pick 4

This race looks as wide-open as can be and I'll be using many of them in the Pick 5. I’ll give (6) WARRAWEE UBEAUT – who won a Breeders Crown race here last fall – a slight nod. (7) SO MUCH MORE could have this race fall into her lap late if there is early battling and she should be a great price here. (8) STONEBRIDGE SOUL was sharp here last week but post could be an issue here; demand a price. (3) MAJOR OCCASION A knocked off the mighty Shartin N in the Haughton final. She is another in with a shot here.

Race 11: NORTH AMERICA CUP FINAL 3YO

(4) TALL DARK STRANGER has shown in the past that he does his best work in stakes finals when coming back to a 7-day rotation and I expect a big mile here. (5) CAPT MIDNIGHT gave the choice all he wanted last week, and I'll take him to complete this Exacta. (3) CAPTAIN KIRK looked good winning first-over in his elimination, but his race went almost a second slower; using underneath. (7) TATTOO ARTIST is likely to blast off early this week and he has some upset potential if he is sitting in the pocket turning for home.

Race 12: ETERNAL CAMNATION 2YO FILLIES

(5) BEST HEAD WEST has really turned the corner in her last two starts and if she improves again here, she will be very hard to beat. (6) SCARLETT HANOVER gets a big driver change to Gingras here and that merits multi-race consideration. (7) LADY MIDNIGHT has some options here starting from the outside in a small field and she isn't out of this. (3) SPELLCHECK HANOVER should move up not having to chase Notorious Pink; using underneath.

Race 13: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(5) TRACEUR HANOVER is a big class-dropper in here and it's hard not to focus on him when constructing these tickets. I will use him 1-2 and try to get some prices surrounding him. (4) WESTERN EXPOSURE overcame some issues behind the gate to get a good spot behind the speed last week and he capitalized. If he behaves, I see a high placing for him here. (7) SPORTS COLUMN gets off the second tier and he should be leaving hard to get position. He is another good price horse (12/1 morning line) to use here. (10) SAMS A CHAMP A is developing a lethal late kick and he steps up here which will help his price. (1) YACHT SEELSTER exits a wicked-fast mile and he can take a small share here starting from the inside. (2) PERSIMMON A didn't get clearance until late last week in a good effort and he is another that will be on most of my tickets.

20-cent High-5 ticket: 5/1,2,4,7,10/1,2,4,7,10/1,2,4,7,10/ALL = $84