Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 8/24

Top Pick Stats: 452 - 1306 / $2,478.80 (-$132.20)

Best Bets: 63 - 122 / $197.70 (-$46.30)

Spot Plays: 30 - 119 / $283.20 (+$45.20)

Best Bet: CEREAL ASSASSIN (11TH)

Spot Play: NORDIC CATCHER S. (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,5/2,4,5/8/2,4,5,7/4,6 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 5,8/1,2,7/1,6,8/3,7/6 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 2,4,5,7/4,6/5,8/1,2,7 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 6/4/3,5,7/3,4,7 = $1.80

Race 1: 2YO Open **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) SOUTHWIND MILK faces colts here but she is fast enough to beat this group and she should be tough if she stays flat; top call in the opener. (5) TREGARON tried some tough Grand Circuit colts last week and he did not make the Wellwood final. This is an easier spot, and he should be much closer vs. these; using. (1) CIVILIAN DRONE missed some time but his first couple of starts identify him as a contender for a share if he is sharp enough; using underneath. (8) CHICAGO HALL was 3rd in a good race two starts back then he broke last week. He will likely blast for position here and I see him sticking around and taking a slice.

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Race 2: NASSAGAWEYA: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN

Grand Circuit winner (4) PRINCE HAL HANOVER is fastest in here and he should be tough to beat if he gets a reasonable trip. (5) AYEAYE CAPTAIN DEO progressed rapidly, and he looked good winning the Dream Maker series. He should be the main threat racing either on the lead or in the choice’s pocket. (2) BOXER SEELSTER shows identical 26 4/5 kickers in his last two starts and he is another possibility if the top two battle at any point. (6) NOVA BLU was 2nd twice to the #5 in here and he can take a small share in this spot.

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Race 3: ETERNAL CAMNATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(8) CHANTILLY has been nothing short of spectacular to date and she likely adds another win here at a short price again. (7) PAPIS OPINION ships north in good form for Pelling despite not breaking her maiden yet. I can see her closing for 2nd in this spot. (3) AU JUS HANOVER handled the big chalk in the Whenuwishuponastar final and she continues to improve but like anyone not named Chantilly in this race she will likely be fighting for scraps. (2) WICKED N SINGLE tries hard every race and she gets Dunn in the bike here. She should be in the exotics mix.

Race 4: NW $9,000 L5 or $20,000 L7 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: NW1 in 2024 (Min. 10 starts) - Pick 4

(5) MR IBIZA flashed home in 25 2/5 in an improved effort but that only got him a 5th-place check last week. That was an improved effort and I’ll give him the nod even though McNair chooses another over him. (2) BOSTON BOUND is another that was motoring late last week that was simply too far back. He could do here if he gets into the flow and is closer turning for home; using. I have mixed feelings about (4) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS, who McNair chose over the choice. He is fast enough and classy enough to beat these, but he has a stale date and is 0 for 4 this year, albeit when facing tougher. I wouldn’t take a short price here. (7) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B drops and he will likely get sent forward leaving the gate. He is another in with a shot in a competitive dash.

Race 5: NW $14,750 L5 or $32,500 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $15K or less L4 AE: NW $6,750 L3

(4) PACINO SEELSTER has been impressive in two starts for Team Cullen and I’ll stick with him here after taking a new life’s mark last week. (6) DRAGONONTHEBEACH is another that just took a new life’s mark, but he has a stale date now due to sickness. If he is sharp enough, he will be a tough rival in here. What to do with (3) STOCKADE SEELSTER? He was done before the 3/4 pole last week but that was against the best older pacers on the grounds. I suppose his class could carry him to a win here, but this race will likely be paced in 1:48 and change and he hasn’t shown that speed yet in four starts this year. (2) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE is in solid form and he figures to close for another share here.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED. HANDICAP (PP#1-4 DRAWN & PP#5-8 DRAWN) - Pick 5

(5) SILVER LABEL is in peak form right now and she outdrew her main rival (8) SYLVIA HANOVER tonight. Nod goes to the former. The latter was driven very aggressively in the slop on Hambo day, and she had no answer for monster Twin B Joe Fresh. McClure climbs back in the bike tonight and she figures to be the main threat. (7) PROHIBITION LEGAL couldn’t get in the clear fast enough to chase after her stablemate last week, but it likely wouldn’t have mattered anyway. She likely takes another slice tonight. (6) TELLS ON A ROLL is having a great year but she is another who is likely looking at a small share in this spot.

Race 7: PEACEFUL WAY FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(2) R DUTCHESS trotted identical 27-flat third and final quarters uncovered and she kept coming to nail the 1 to 5 favorite in her elimination. That was an extremely impressive performance and she gets top billing in the final. (1) CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS raced well but the choice was better. This race could come down to another battle between these two. (7) LASTING DREAM gets Roy back in the bike for this final and that makes her interesting because she is sure to get a more aggressive steer; price look for the multis. (3) ROYAL MISSION, winner of the other elimination, likely sits a trip and rounds out the Tri in this spot.

Race 8: ETERNAL CAMNATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(6) PERFECTLY CHIC was racing great before she had an untimely bout of sickness and had to miss the Battle of the Belles final. I’ll take a price swing with her in this Grand Circuit debut. (1) CANT SEE ME found out in the Whenuwishuponastar final that it’s a different ball game when you don’t get a perfect trip but she is a top contender here nonetheless and getting Dunn in the bike won’t hurt. (8) NICE BUNS debut was good enough to make her a contender here. Her first up move was impressive, and the 3rd-place finisher has already come back to win. These are tougher but she might be up to it. (7) BONHOMIE HANOVER is improving for trainer Pelling and she should get at least a slice here.

Race 9: PREFERRED

Four of these older pacers are tuning up for the biggest race of the year in this country in their division next Saturday, the Canadian Pacing Derby. If he follows the same pattern leading up to the Mohawk Gold Cup, (3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER should be tough in here; top call. (7) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR was passively driven last week and he flew home. He can win here if he gets put into the race, but does he wait and save his best for next week considering he drew widest? Your call. (5) ALLYWAG HANOVER drew perfectly for a good try here and he will likely get sent forward at the start. He hasn’t won yet this year though and he couldn’t beat the choice in July. I’ll use him underneath. I’d toss (2) ITS MY SHOW’s line in Quebec. He will likely be much better here and he can be a threat next Saturday night, too.

Race 10: WILLIAM WELLWOOD MEMORIAL FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 4

(6) NORDIC CATCHER S got a good trip last week but he was nailed by a rival that got an even better trip and I expect this colt to be better here racing back in a week this time. I’ll take the better price tonight starting from the best post. (4) TACTICAL DYNASTY dominated last week as expected and he is the clear one to fear in this spot. (2) EMOTICON LEGACY tripped out to beat the choice but he was impressive considering he had missed a month due to a sick scratch. He has plenty of upside and he’s not out of this. (10) LOOKATMEGOAMIGO has shown flashes and I could see him sneaking into the bottom of the exotics at a huge price.

Race 11: 5YO and younger NW $23,750 LT AE: 3YO NW $2,650 L5

(4) CEREAL ASSASSIN absolutely crushed in his local debut and this field looks no tougher. He should repeat but he will likely be 1 to 5 at the off. (7) CHESTERMAN exits some tough races. He seems most logical to complete the Exacta. (3) A CLASS YANKEE comes off an improved effort and he can crack the top three here likely racing close to the front throughout. (6) R J RINGO has only missed the board once racing on the B tracks. He should be good for a share here.

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Race 12: 5YO and younger NW2 or $34,750 LT

(5) CALICOJACK HANOVER was a winner in 1:51 2/5 in his 2024 debut so we know he can fire fresh. His connections got ambitious with him trying the best horses for a couple of starts. He fits much better here and he gets top billing. Likely favorite (3) MCPLEASANT, winner of 3 for her last 4, has shown versatility and he is the one to beat here. (7) PREMIER FIRST STAR drops back to NW2 where he won two starts back. He should fare better in this spot; price look for the late Pick 4. (1) WATCHING SUNSET should go better here starting from the inside. He is in the exotics mix.

Race 13: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS STARTERS

(4) CENTURY KIMODO took no money at the windows last time and he never entered contention, but he did close well. He gets McNair back now and an aggressive try is likely this time; slight nod. (7) STONEBRIDGE THRILL flew home and nosed out the choice in that race. He gets Borth for a second drive and I can see him getting more aggressive in this spot; using. (3) DO BETTER got a needed clean line starting from the second tier at Grand River now he draws well and he should be right there vs. these; using. (2) LAKERS BANK rarely misses the board and he is a good one to use underneath, but I’ll play to beat him as the morning line favorite here. (8) CHALK HANOVER will likely sit and rally starting from a wide post this week; using underneath.