Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 8/22

Meet Stats: 152 - 525/ $896.10 (-$253.60)
Best Bets: 24 - 47/ $75.70 (-$18.30)
Spot Plays: 10 - 49 / $71.20 (-$26.80)
Best Bet: PARTY GIRL HILL (3RD)
Spot Play: WESTERN EXPOSURE (10TH)
Early Pick 5: 1,2,5/7/2/7,8/1,7,10 = $3.60
Late Pick 5: 3/1,2,3,4,5,7/1,7/1,7,9/4,8 = $14.40
Early Pick 4: 7,8/1,7,10/3/1,2,3,4,5,7 = $36
Late Pick 4: 1,7/1,7,9/4,8/5,8,10 = $36

Race 1: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000 **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(2) THE DEVILS OWN N brings some excellent form north and goes for Montini in a spot where he fits well; top call in the opener. (5) POINTS NORTH left hard in a quick opening 1/4 then re-rallied late to take a new life's mark. Starting from a good post, I'll use him in this Pick 5. (1) EAST END has a better shot here moving inside this week; another chance in a contentious race. (7) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN races tough every week and he can take another slice here.

Race 2: FAN HANOVER ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(7) PEAKY SNEAKY was an easy winner last time Gingras drove and she benefits greatly by the late scratch of Rocknificent here. She's a Pick 5 single for me. (4) BETALADY has been consistent all year and she should get good piece of this. (6) ALICORN hasn’t been the same filly so far this year, but she is capable if she can recapture her best form. (3) PERFECT STORM should get away close to the front and she should stick around to finish in the Super.

Race 3: FAN HANOVER ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(2) PARTY GIRL HILL has been nothing short of sensational so far and her unbeaten streak is unlikely to get snapped here. (8) LADY LOU has been right there with some top fillies the past two starts but she is still stuck on two wins; Exacta factor. (3) PRICELESS can be very fast but also erratic. Getting Gingras here won't hurt; using underneath. (5) ROSE RUN VANTAGE looked good winning first up here last week and she can take a small share vs. these.

Race 4: PREFERRED HANDICAP - Pick 4

(7) AMERICAN HISTORY rolls into town after taking on the best in North America on Hambletonian Day and his best makes him very tough here. (8) SINTRA produced a stellar effort to win here on August 8th and he figures to be the main threat. (6) MATTICULOUS GB is likely to be aggressive early and getting position should put him in this Tri or Super. (2) PRETTY HANDSOME has never been better and he may sneak into the Super at a big price here.

Race 5: NW $8,000 L5 or $17,000 L10

(1) PERSIMMON A takes a big drop shipping in and picks up hot driver Jamieson while moving into a barn that has moved some horses up recently; top call. (10) GHOST DANCE took action but showed little last week. He could get a good trip this time following the choice; using. (7) TREMENDOUS PLAY has improving form and he should be good for another small share here. (3) CLIFFHANGER will likely lay close early and hang around to take a slice; using on the bottom.

Race 6: NORTH AMERICA CUP XXXVII ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLDS - Pick 5

(3) TALL DARK STRANGER regained his form with Lasix added in the Cane Pace and he is clearly the one to beat this week and next. (4) CAPT MIDNIGHT raced well to be 2nd to the choice and he can be part of the Exacta. (7) TATTOO ARTIST will no doubt be blasting to the front leaving the gate and he should give a good account of himself here. (1) BEAUMOND HANOVER, the other main local hope, draws tricky post 1. I'll use him on the bottom in this spot.

Race 7: NW $11,000 L5 or $23,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

Tough race with several possibilities but it could set up for a closer like (7) SAMS A CHAMP A with a likely hot early pace and he gets a slight nod. (3) MONGOLIAN HERO N closed in a fast race and he is another who figures to benefit from the race shape. (1) PHYSICALLYINCLINED got back on track last week now he draws well again. He should be a pace threat in here. (5) PLAY JET RAY is capable of better if he can get into the flow earlier and he has an upset chance here.

Race 8: NORTH AMERICA CUP XXXVII ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLDS - Pick 4

(1) CAPTAIN KIRK was part of some hot early fractions in the Cane Pace and on paper this race boils down to him vs. (7) ALLYWAG HANOVER, who has shown major improvement in the Pelling barn this year. Nod to the former who holds post position and tactical advantages. (3) MONEYMAN HILL looks next best and likely rounds out the Tri here. (6) MAYHEM HANOVER is capable of landing in the Super if he stays on stride this time; using underneath.

Race 9: NW $25,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 AE: NW $2,500 L4

(7) BEST IN SHOW steps up but he is sharp and has beaten better before; top call. (1) SPORTSLINE is sharp and dangerous and he figures to get a good trip racing near the front; Exacta factor. (9) THE DOWNTOWN BUS woke up with a much better effort last week and he is an interesting price play here from the 9-hole. (6) NICKLE BAG, 2nd to the choice last week, should be in the hunt again and be part of the Tri or Super.

Race 10: NW 4 OR $50,000 LIFETIME. AE: GRASSROOT STARTERS

(8) WESTERN EXPOSURE should get a better trip if he fires off the gate the same way he did last time when he made several moves in a 1:21 2/5 three-quarters and he gets the nod facing a mixed bag of sophomores and older horses. (4) SPORTS OBSESSION raced well vs. NW6 two starts back and he fits well here; using. (6) NIGHT WATCHMAN should get position near the front leaving the gate and stick around for a slice. (5) A POSITIVE HANOVER steps up but he's another who should be close to the front early that can hang around for a slice.

Race 11: NW $5,400 L5 or $12,500 L10

(5) AWESOMENESS paced a 54 4/5 middle 1/2 uncovered last week to just miss and he can take this with a slightly easier trip. (10) FOOT SOLDIER gets to drop again after missing a check and he is probably better racing off a helmet. He is the one to fend off. (8) ICY BLUE SCOOTER should improve on the drop here and he could add some value to this late Pick 4. (1) BEACHIN LINDY hasn't made it into an Exacta yet this year but he should be closing for a piece of this; using underneath. (7) ROCK THIS WAY is another who regularly deploys a deep closing style who should pass a few of these late to finish on the edges.