Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 8/20

Meet Stats: 449 - 1388 / $2,347.20 (-$428.80)

Best Bets: 72 - 128 / $248.60 (-$7.40)

Spot Plays: 34 - 128 / $244.70 (-$11.30)

Best Bet: HEART ON FIRE (6TH)

Spot Play: CONTROL HEAVEN (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3/2,6/4,5/3,4,5/3,7,10 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 3/4,7/2,3,7/6,7,8/3,7,8 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 3,4,5/3,7,10/3/4,7 = $18

Late Pick 4: 2,3,7/6,7,8/3,7,8/3,10 = $54

Race 1: 3yo Colts and Geldings Grassroots starters **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) KAPORAL was good last week but he came up against a colt that has been sensational lately. He gets the nod here is a spot where he should be on the lead or racing from the pocket. (3) PERSISTANT BOY should be better tonight getting back to a 7-day rotation and he figures to be the main threat. (8) DYNOMITES PEAK is capable but post, pace and trip will likely work against him tonight. I think he sits and rallies. (1) RIDINLIKEYASTOLEIT should get a good following trip and take a small share here.

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Race 2: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $40,000 LT AE: NW $6,000 in 2022

(6) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B is on a roll and he has been winning from everywhere during this current three-race win streak. A fourpeat looms. (2) TWIN B POWERBALL tripped out and took a new life's mark but he could get a similar good journey here. He is the most likely upsetter of the choice. (5) PETIPOU got two tough trips in a row. He can hit the ticket if he gets a better trip tonight. (3) BLUEMOON BAYAMA raced better last time. With his improving form, he is worth using underneath here.

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Race 3: PEACEFUL WAY Elimination 2YO Fillies

(4) GRACEFUL PATTY is still a maiden but she is likely to be a big chalk here exiting the Doherty where she was only beaten five lengths. I think she graduates tonight. (5) WARRAWEE YES is another maiden that rates highly here coming off a strong closing effort in the Pure Ivory final; using. (1) TACTICAL PLANNER was the winner of the Pure Ivory so she can't be discounted, but I prefer to use her underneath in this spot. (2) HORN PLAYER should be good for a share if she stays flat tonight.

Race 4: WILLIAM WELLWOOD Elimination 2YO Open - Pick 4

(3) WINNERS BET has been progressively better every start and Dunn is in to drive him; top call. (5) CARTER MICHAEL DEO had to face unbeaten Kilmister twice in New Jersey and he fared decently. He stacks up well here and he should be a threat. (4) LOWRY also faced a top colt twice in Kentucky, finishing 2nd to him once. He is in the exotics mix here. (8) TUSCAN PRICE faces tougher tonight but he has the best from. He isn't impossible in this spot.

Race 5: Winners of 3 but not more than 6 races or $80,000 AE: 3YO and 4YO to be claimed for $60,000

(7) CONTROL HEAVEN comes off a good 3rd-place effort from the 10-hole now he faces several sires stakes types racing between Gold events. I'll call him to upset here. NA Cup 3rd (3) FROZEN HANOVER comes off a good try at a similar level and he could be the one to catch here; using. (10) ARMOR SEELSTER is hitting his best stride and Gingras takes the lines here. He is in with a decent chance despite drawing widest. (1) KOLBY TWO STEP has a Gold 2nd and a win sandwiched around a mild effort in a class similar to tonight's. I'd be careful here.

Race 6: PEACEFUL WAY Elimination 2YO Fillies - Pick 5

(3) HEART ON FIRE is the fastest filly in here by more than two seconds on paper. She should be tough to beat. (5) SILLY ME HANOVER could only muster a 30 1/5 kicker after setting easy fractions in the Pure Ivory final which makes me wonder if she was sick. She should be better here and she is a possible upsetter. (2) RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE has dominated in Gold races recently but she was allowed to steal breathers that likely won't be available tonight. I'll try to beat her out of the Exacta. (7) WINOOSKI likely sits and rallies late for a small share.

Race 7: WILLIAM WELLWOOD Elimination 2YO Open

(4) LUKES BAR announced his talent in the final 1/8th of his debut when he came screaming down the lane to just miss and he has been sensational since then. He faces a big test tonight in (7) FRENCH WINE, but he might be up to it. Slight nod to the former. (1) BRACE FOR LANDING looked good breaking his maiden and he gets Mark Macdonald tonight with brother James opting to drive the choice. He can be an exotics factor at a price. (5) GHOSTLY CASPER tries hard every week. He should be in the mix again here.

Race 8: NW $16,500 L5 or $31,500 L8 AE: Starters for a purse of $16,000 or less in 1 of L4 AE: 3YO - Pick 4

Good race here with a few live options. I'll side with (3) THE GREEK FREAK, who has a recency edge on some of these and figures to improve dropping out of the top class. (7) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS is perfect since changing barns, but he is tricky here because this race obviously isn't his main goal. Two starts back he was conservatively driven in an overnight and won anyway. That could happen here, but I still wouldn’t take a short price with this one. (2) LAWLESS SHADOW figures to flash his typical blinding early speed on the class drop here and it wouldn't be a shock if he led all the way; using. (1) MY PAL JOE was first up in quick splits on Hambo day at the Meadowlands, but that was the first race and the track played very fast early. I'll use him underneath here.

Race 9: WILLIAM WELLWOOD Elimination

(7) HASTY BID has a win and excuses for his two losses. I can see him using his strong late kick to get past these late and notch the upset. (8) INTERNATIONAL MAN will surely be blasting early from his wide post and he should be the one to catch; using. (6) OSCEOLA has looked great winning two straight Golds and he is an obvious danger in a competitive field. (2) SNOWPIERCER has been on the front in every race so far; sits and rallies now after tiring in the stretch last time?

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Race 10: NW $35,000 L5 or NW $175,000 LT AE: 4YO

(8) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH is likely prepping for the upcoming Pacing Derby, but this is a field that he should beat and he gets top billing. (7) POSEIDON SEELSTER never got involved in the McKee on Hambo day but his 1:48 2/5 front end win here two starts back sticks out; using. (3) MAPPOS LION tries hard every week and he should be in the exotics mix again. (2) EAST END should sit a trip and take a small share.

Race 11: NW $10,000 L5 or $20,500 L10

(10) FOREFATHER gets Mark Macdonald in the bike tonight and I think he rolls him to the front leaving the gate and goes right down the road at a price. (3) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER made two moves in this class last week now he gets Macdonald back. He should be right there vs. these. (6) JM JACK OF HEARTS gets post relief tonight and he should be part of the Tri or Super. (1) ROCKMEROLLME was game in defeat last week but I don't love the rail post for him in this spot; using underneath. (2) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER should be good for another small share; consider for the bottom of the High-5.