Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 8/1

Meet Stats: 119-404/ $624.70 (-$183.30)
Best Bets: 19-36/ $65.40 (-$6.60)
Spot Plays: 9-37 / $64.90 (-$9.10)
Best Bet: SINTRA (9TH)
Spot Play: MISSION BAY (7TH)
Early Pick 5: 5,7,8/4,9/2,3,5/3,4,7/6 = $10.80
Late Pick 5: 5,9/4,7/3,5,10/3/2,3,4,7,9 = $12
Early Pick 4: 3,4,7/6/5,9/4,7 = $12
Late Pick 4: 3,5,10/3/2,3,4,7,9/3,9,10 = $45

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $50,000 LT **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

Missing 20 days action didn't bother (5) TWIN B FRENCHTOAST a bit last week and although these rivals are tougher, he might be up to it. (8) A POSITIVE HANOVER should enjoy getting back home in a conditioned race and he should have a big shot if he gets put into action early. (7) BETTORBUCKLE UP comes off a career-best effort in defeat and he is hard to toss out of this Pick 5. (3) THE WILD CARD shows a win in this class three starts back, but he likes racing on the front end and I don't see him being allowed to lead the way for very long in this field; using underneath.

Race 2: NW $5,000 L5 or $11,000 L10

(4) MAJOR HILL takes a major class drop and he should be tough in this spot. (9) ROYAL RENEGADE's comeback race was quite good, and he has beaten better than these previously. I'll use him as a price option in here. (5) ALI should get better position early here and he can land in this Tri. (8) REGAL SON also drops, and he will take some action here, but the way he stalled first up almost immediately after being pointed to the outside in two straight starts makes him a bet against for me in this spot.

Race 3: NW5 or $77,000 LT

(5) DENALI SEELSTER doesn't have to deal with Beaumond Hanover here and I can see him controlling this race. (3) MAYHEM HANOVER came up against a motivated YS Mathis last week who was unyielding late. He should be a big threat in here. (2) READY TO RUMBLE N closed like he was launched out of a cannon last week and he's a good alternative here to the sophomore stakes colts who obviously don't have to win this race. (1) WESTERN EXPOSURE has been racing well for Roy and he should get a piece of this.

Race 4: ONT SIRED 3 YEAR OLD GRASSROOT STARTERS IN 2020. NW $4,000 IN OSS EARNINGS 1 MILE IN 2020 - Pick 4

(3) ILLBEWATCHINGU exits some tough spots and he keeps McClure after the duo took a third in Grassroots action last time. I'll give him the nod over (4) SOLID MAN who also has faced some tough ones recently and should improve in this spot. (7) THE DEVIL YOU KNOW didn't fare poorly last week considering he tried to take on YS Mathis first-over. He could be a nice bomb to include here. (1) DETERMINED's first race over Mohawk Park wasn't bad and he can pass some of these late to land in the Super.

Race 5: NW $22,500 L5 or $31,500 L10 or NW $150,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000

(6) BEST IN SHOW takes a mighty class drop here and he draws perfectly. He will get hammered down to odds-on, but he'll be tough to beat. (1) SPORTSLINE continues to show high speed and he may get a sweet pocket ride behind the choice and land in the Exacta. (5) ROCKME ROLLME has been right there every week and he is a good one to use in the Tri here starting from the middle of the gate. (3) EAST END raced tough last week to win but he was demoted. He should take a piece of this.

Race 6: NW3 (F&M5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000) - Pick 5

(5) BLUE CUPERTINO finds a spot where he could dominate from the outset and he should offer a square price lined up against (9) HAYEK, whose only loss this year came to budding superstar Pemberton. The latter is obvious on paper, but what strategy will be deployed starting from the worst post in a conditioned race that falls between stakes engagements? I wouldn't take a short price here. (7) KUIL DEVA is always around the money and tonight should be no different; using underneath. (4) DELILAH SEELSTER rode a perfect trip and stellar drive to victory vs. lesser and she can come on late to take a small share here.

Race 7: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $30,500 LT

(7) MISSION BAY almost beat better two starts back and I expect Hudon to put him into play leaving the gate this time; top call. (4) CAPTIVATE HANOVER finished just ahead of the choice last week and he should contend facing easier here; using. (1) WHITECOOKIE has enough speed to win this, but the low percentage driver is a concern; demand a price. (8) SIDDHARTHA should be passing horses late to land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 8: NW $8,400 L5 or $18,500 L10 – Pick 4

(5) MONGOLIAN HERO N won at one level higher than this on June 6th and class relief along with a good post should make him very tough in this spot. (3) PHYSICALLYINCLINED gets a better chance here starting with his nose on the gate and he should be a threat; using. (10) BORN OF FIRE closed into an accelerating late pace on Tuesday night and I expect him to take a share here returning to action quickly. (9) CAPTAIN TREVOR almost won in this class two starts back, but the outer post likely dooms him to a smaller share this time.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(3) SINTRA returns home and lands in a much easier spot than the Haughton. He should dominate here at a low price. (1) THE DOWNTOWN BUS got to stretch his legs last week and he should improve here. I'll use him on the bottom of the Exacta hoping to get some value. (2) MATTICULOUS GB won and was set back for interference in this class last week. He should contend for a share again racing from close range. (4) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT can ride an inside following trip to a spot in the Super here.

Race 10: NW $16,000 L5 or $27,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

This is a tough race with several possibilities, but I think it might set up for (3) MAKE SOME LUCK who shows improving form and is likely to offer a good price. (7) EASY LOVER HANOVER imposed his will last week when he held a huge class edge. He is obviously a contender here, but there are plenty of quick leavers lined up to his inside and he may be forced to change tactics this week. (2) BETTOR BE GOING has a better chance here starting from the inside and he will likely offer a square price, too; using. (4) FOOT SOLIDER is worth a look on the driver change back to McClure.

Race 11: NW $12,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(10) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN gets to face easier here and leave behind a horse that always shows high gate speed. He is the one to beat. (9) REAL WILLEY raced well vs. better last time and the outer post will boost his price here. Give him a look for the late Pick 4. (3) PLAY JET RAY is getting sharp now and he is in with an upset chance here. (4) REAL SURREAL should get away from the gate quicker here starting from the inside and he can land in this Super. (8) ROCK THIS WAY is a good one to use in the 3-4-5 slots usually.