Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/8

Top Pick Stats: 299 - 916 / $1,563.30 (-$269.00)

Best Bets: 49 - 834/ $174.70 (+$6.70)

Spot Plays: 16 - 85/ $94.10 (-$75.90)

Best Bet: AMERICAN HISTORY (8TH)

Spot Play: THE GREEK FREAK (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,5/4,6/1,2,9/5,6/1,5,6 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 2,3/3,5,8,9/6/4,6,9/3,4,5,9 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 5,6/1,5,6/2,3/43,5,8,9 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 6/4,6,9/3,4,5,9/2,4,5,6 = $9.60

Race 1: 5YO and younger NW $15,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) COLD CREEK GUERERO, a good 2nd here last week while finishing with broken equipment, looks solid in here and he gets the nod. (1) TALK RACY TO ME was part of a wicked early pace last week and he did well to stay for a share. The likely pace scenario seems to favor a speed try from him tonight. I expect Jones to be sending. (2) WARRAWEE YANKEE is another that should get an improved trip racing close to the front and he is the third one that I'll use in the early Pick 5. (6) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT was impressive beating maidens, but these are tougher. I'll use him underneath tonight.

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Race 2: NW $24,000 L5 AE: NW $3,250 L3

(4) THE GREEK FREAK has been very sharp for weeks but his kick is negated when the leaders pace two sub-54 halves. This is a field that he can reel in; top call. (6) LAWLESS SHADOW has hit his best stride and he will have to be caught here; using. (7) HP MOMENTUM flies home every week but passing all of these rivals is a tall order. I'll use him underneath. (3) SAULSBROOK VICTOR will probably get bet here on the class drop but he missed all of June so he may need another. I’ll play to beat him tonight.

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Race 3: 3YO Fillies Grassroots starters in 2023

(2) OCCASIONALLY SHARP brings identical 26-flat kickers to this race and she can win if she lays close to the pace tonight. (1) STARLIGHT DANCER set some wild fractions in her last start and she understandably backed up late. She should get an easier trip tonight; using. (9) GODIVA SHADOW GIRL hasn't won locally yet, but her big late kick could play well here in a race that has the potential to fall apart late. She is another to consider for the Pick 5. (10) MYSTIC WILD ROSE is sharp and she would be rated higher if she drew better. From post 10, she is likely to close for a small share.

Race 4: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000 - Pick 4

Tough race here with some Gold horses facing elders racing between stakes starts which makes intent a bit of a guessing game. I thought (6) MOMENT IS HERE was unlucky in defeat last week, picked off by a rival that tripped out. He should win here if he brings close to his 'A' game. (5) SANTANA HANOVER raced okay vs. Stockade Seelster who is racing in the Meadowlands Pace elims tonight. He could trip out racing near the front and add some value to multi-race tickets. (1) MIDNIGHT NATION upset the choice last week but it's hard to see him getting that same free run up the pylons late. Small share predicted for him tonight. (2) RON made a big move on some winded leaders last week but he couldn’t seal the deal. I see him getting another small share here.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2. 3YO TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS

(1) TUSCAN PRINCE made what looked like was going to be a winning move coming off the final turn in the Goodtimes then flattened out a bit late. Adding Lasix now could be the difference tonight; top call. (6) HASTY BID wasn't far behind the choice in that race and he could be sitting on a big race here; using. (5) GHOSTLY CASPER finished behind the top two choices in the Goodtimes but his trip wasn't ideal. He fired back to take a win since and he has a recency edge. He is another possibility. (9) OSCEOLA is capable if he stays flat but he broke then missed a month so he is risky here.

Race 6: F&M 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000 - Pick 5

(2) FRONT PAGE STORY is a fast sophomore that will handle this group if she gets put into the race early. She jogged over NW2 two starts back so it's reasonable to assume that the intent will be the same tonight. (3) ONE LAST WISH is another sophomore facing elders and she should improve by default getting away from the likes of Sylvia Hanover; using. (6) ACRIMONY win well at this level and she is the most likely older mare to win in this spot. (1) FAVORITE BEACH races well in defeat but she seems more likely to take a small share than a win. I'll use her underneath.

Race 7: 3YO Fillies Grassroots starters in 2023

(5) MENDING FENCES tripped out last week but she is improving quickly and I'll give her the call to repeat in a spot where she can get another good trip. (3) ELISES DELIGHT is sharp and she comes off two strong efforts. She is one of several that could win here. (9) BLUE GLAMBER showed what she can do two starts back and the barn has been hot. The question is, does she blast or not in this non-points race? (8) TWIN DELIGHT comes off a strong Grassroots win and she should be right there if she is raced aggressively again starting from a wide post.

Race 8: NW $14,250 L5 AE: NW $115,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) AMERICAN HISTORY draws best and he drops and likely pops in this spot. (5) BEYOND BETTER broke while on the move last week. He can be an Exacta factor if he stays flat tonight. (4) COMMANDING OFFICER was stellar vs. easier last week but this is tougher. I'd demand a price here. (2) ROCKME ROLLME races tough every week and he should be part of the exotics tonight racing from close range.

Race 9: PREFERRED 2

(8) SO MUCH MORE draws widest and faces males but this field is within her range and she gets top billing. (6) MOMAS SON BYRNE draws best, drops and most importantly, returns to a 7-day rotation. A big speed try could be coming from this gelding tonight. (4) NAUTICAL HANOVER’s big late kick should play better at this level and he should be in the exotics mix. (1) POSEIDON SEELSTER is racing well and he is another that should be in the Tri or Super.

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Race 10: NW $9,250 L5 or $16,900 L10 AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(3) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N got wiped out while on the move last week. He gets Macdonald now and he should offer a decent price; top call. (4) SHADOW IN RED overcame interference in the same race and he is too sharp to not win one soon. That could come tonight. (5) EMMETTS BUDDY paced in 1:50-flat in his return race now he drops. This is a field he could beat if he is in striking range turning for home and he is another possibility for late Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (9) MATAI LOUIS N set a wild pace and predictably stopped. He should last longer here.

Race 11: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $31,250 LT AE: NW $13,500 in 2023

(2) BETTER OPTION moves inside after closing in 53 3/5 last week. He has a good chance vs. these. (4) MACS DELIGHT wasn't far behind in a Gold after missing time and shipping north. He would be no surprise tonight. (5) SAUBLE ACE rebounded from an unlucky trip two starts back to dominate Grassroots types last week and he is another in with a chance in a race where it makes sense to price shop. (6) REIGN SUPREME moves from the worst post to the best one and that can make a big difference to trip and pace; another in with a shot. (8) FADE TO LIGHT comes off a sharp two move win but I'm inclined to use him underneath from out there.