Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/5

Top Pick Stats: 26/103 (-$93.70)

Best Bets: 4/8 (-$2.80); Spot Plays: 2/9 (-$7.60)

Best Bet: WRITE ME A ROSE (Race 2)

Spot Play: AQUINAS HANOVER (Race 7)

Early Pick 5: 4,8,9/1/4,5/4,8/4,9 $4.80

Late Pick 5: 3,5/6,8/2/8/4,6 $1.60

Race 1: POP UP SERIES CONSOLATION: H&G NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. (11-20 IN STANDINGS).

(4) LAMBORGHINI LOU hasn’t found the winner’s circle yet this year, but has been taking a lot of air on the outside in recent starts and seems to be rounding back into form. He will be looking to work out another mid-pack trip and get the job done. (9) ROCKS SHINING STAR did not have things set up well for him in his latest. I really liked the effort two back, and he gets James Macdonald back in the bike tonight. Looking for a rebound effort. (8) LARCENY took a lot of betting support in his latest, but was conservatively handled and never got into the race until it was too late. He is a tricky horse to figure out, but if he brings his A-Game, he should be set for a strong finish. (1) WOODMERE FENN was pressured from post nine in the early stages of his latest and faded as a result. He is better when working off a helmet, and can find one to tow him into the action.

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Race 2: NW $18,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW 6 RACES LIFETIME.

(1) WRITE ME A ROSE had no racing room in the stretch last week. He gets Doug McNair in the bike tonight who drove him to a front-end win on June 14. With a couple NA Cup participants prepping for stakes engagements down the road, I’ll take a chance on this guy getting a good trip. (5) LITE UP THE WORLD returns from the NA Cup Final where he was just too far back in a pace that was unbelievably fast. I have no idea what kind of trip the connections want to give him tonight, but his versatility and speed are more than enough to counteract that. (4) DRAGONONTHEBEACH races off the claim for the Amanda Riley barn after three wins in a row. He picks up Bob McClure tonight who could suit his style well. He can add some value to the exotics. (6) PRINCE HAL HANOVER probably has the most left in the tank of anyone coming out of the NA Cup, but McNair chose off this horse. He will more than likely get a prep drive. I’ll slot him underneath.

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Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) ANOTHER GREAT MASS has a pari-mutuel start under his belt, and took a clear step forward in that effort. He made a move from the pocket when going to the half to get the lead, but the winner was too good on the day. He raced well to hold second, and should race well again here. (4) L P BAY was a strong winner in his second qualifier. Baillargeon kept this Trixton colt to task and never asked him in the lane. He looks set to improve tonight. (8) STROBE LITE was gaining on the aforementioned and wrapped up L P BAY in that qualifier, and raced well. Borth gives this horse the nod despite the outside post. He can put him into play and hit the board. (2) CAPTAIN WILLIE comes off an even fourth place finish in his career debut at Georgian Downs. He can grab a share tonight.

Race 4: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS OR PROSPECT STARTERS (MAY BE DIVIDED BY EARNINGS).

(4) FIFTH AND FIVE sat a perfect pocket trip in his latest and went by in the stretch to get the win. The three weeks off between starts didn’t bother him. I think he can come right back this time and repeat. (8) SILVERWALLS continues to string together great efforts. He got picked off by Out Of Ice in his latest, but that should not deter him from being forwardly placed and right in contention again. (7) READYFORPRIMETIME is a horse that I was really unsure of what to do with. There is no doubt that he has the speed to get the job done, but his race last time was strange, with him coming back to the pack before battling again and winning a photo. I’m not sure what version of him we will get tonight, but he can hit the board. (1) OUT OF ICE has been driven fantastically in his two recent Grassroots tries. He is likely to not be as hard used early, but he can grab a share tonight.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(4) BEAU JANGLES was extremely impressive in his second qualifier, winning by a ton and showing no signs of slowing down. This Cattlewash colt looks like he could be a special type. We’ll see just how much he has on debut. (9) TILTHECOWSCOMEHOME accelerated extremely well when pointed to the outside in the stretch and nailed big favorite Dad on the wire. It was an excellent debut that makes him a top contender in this Gold and in this division if it keeps up. (2) BORDERLINE MOBBY stormed down the center of the track to win his debut. James Macdonald gets back in the bike to pilot an improving colt who can hit the board. (1) WINDOR got outsprinted in his debut when it mattered most, but will likely get a different trip tonight and learn how to race from off the pace. He can get a share.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000 (OS $99,750) LIFETIME.

(3) SET SHOT is one of four horses in this race dropping in class from a stake. He tends to do his best work when sitting close. He can get the job done tonight. (5) THE VICAR makes just his second start since March, but has shown past speed to make him a threat at this level if he steps forward. (4) CONTROL ROCKS didn’t get his preferred trip last time. When he has been forward lately, he hasn’t been finishing, but he can hold on and hit the board tonight. (7) CENTURY LUCIFER comes off a runaway win in a qualifier, but likely needs a start or two. I’ll slot him underneath tonight.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(6) AQUINAS HANOVER nearly pulled off the upset in his latest, which was his second start on Lasix. When he is firing at all cylinders that is what we should see out of him on a consistent basis. I’ll count on last week not being a flash in the pan and look for him to get the job done. (8) TH KAY C CRUNCH got beat by a tripped out winner in his latest, but raced as good as he could. This is a level he can continue to thrive at. (2) TWIN B FRESH BET was used too hard in the early stages of his latest and faded back to fifth. I think he gets a different trip tonight and can finish strong to spice up the exotics. (5) CAPTAIN HURLEY got a perfect trip in his latest and pulled off an upset. He could be overbet in this spot following that win. I’ll play against tonight.

Race 8: NW $9,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW $35,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(2) FORTIFY gets another drop in class that is a little too much to ignore. He was better in his latest, and should be a tough horse to beat tonight. (3) REDWOOD HANOVER was my top pick in his race, but the trip didn’t go his way and it was just his second start back. He can definitely step forward and challenge for the win. (4) HUNGRY MAN could spice up this pace if McNair presses the pedal early. He likes to be near the lead, and should have every chance to hit the board. (6) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS loves to grind into contention, and could get a setup if the pace gets hot. He can grab a share tonight.

Race 9: PREFERRED.

(8) BRUE HANOVER has been the king of the Preferred as of late, and comes off an impressive win in the Gold Cup. He is the clear one to beat until proven otherwise. (1) GEM QUALITY got a perfect setup in his latest and eventually got by in the stretch. He is sharp right now and can be best of the rest if the #8 races as advertised. (6) CENTURY KOMODO was a strong third in his latest behind two other top pacers. He can hit the board again tonight. (4) SOARING NOW was the “now” horse back in May, but hasn’t been quite up to par with these types since. He can pick up a slice tonight.

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Race 10: POP UP SERIES CONSOLATION: H&G NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. (21-30 IN STANDINGS).

(6) PREMIER FIRST STAR hasn’t been able to make his usual mid-pack style work much this year, but he could improve here if the early speed turns into cheap speed. I think his price floats up and you get a square number. (4) ARTIES IDEAL has folded plenty in the past, but you know where he’s going to be, and if he finds himself in possession of a second quarter breather, it could be over from there. (2) STONE CARVER has had pretty much no chance to win in his last three, but he paces home strong every time. If Macdonald works out a trip for him, he can hit the board. (8) THUNDER COUNTRY was flying in the stretch last week and nearly passed them all. If he comes from last again, I’m not sure if he can do it, but he will certainly be catching the eye.

Race 11: POP UP SERIES FINAL: HORSES & GELDINGS NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 OR LESS IN LAST START.

(2) R J RINGO was bet like he couldn’t lose last week and raced like it, producing a dominating score. He has raced great in this series and deserves plenty of respect in tonight’s final. (6) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE continues to improve with each start this season. He draws a perfect post for another speed try and could sit a cozy trip. (1) ITS MAJOR MAJOR A got picked off in the late stages last week, but raced very well. The rail could be to his detriment unless McClure is on the move early, but if he continues his form, he will be right there. (3) CONTROL THE POWER has shown his versatility in this series, and should be happy with any trip as long as he gets to the outside. He can pick up a piece tonight. (9) IT TAKES TWO pulled off a giant upset last week, but now draws a wide post. He can close for the final spot of the Hi-5.