Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/4

Meet Stats: 56 - 187 / $323.70 (-$50.30)
Best Bets: 10 - 18 / $35.90 (-$0.10)
Spot Plays: 6 - 18 / $45.10 (+9.10)
Best Bet: EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN (10TH)
Spot Play: MCPAT (4TH)
Early Pick 5: 3,5,7/5,7,8/3,4,7/1,4,7/7,9 = $32.40
Late Pick 5: 4,8/5,6/1,6/2,10/7 = $3.20
Early Pick 4: 1,4,7/7,9/4,8/5,6 = $24
Late Pick 4: 1,6/2,10/7/6,8,10 = $12

Race 1: NW $16,500 L5 or $28,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: $45,000 CLM **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(5) TRACEUR HANOVER found himself in an impossible spot at the 3/4 pole last week but he did finish willingly vs. tougher now he draws much better. He should improve sharply here. (7) HERVEY HANOVER is rounding back into top form now and he would be no surprise against these; using. (3) TYGA HANOVER set some big splits then tired late. He could beat these if he works out a good trip. (1) PEACE OUT POSSE rallied well late off a good trip. I see him as a fringe player here.

Race 2: F&M NW $6,200 L5 or $15,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

(7) FOOL ME AGAIN raced much better with McNair in the bike last time now she drops multiple class levels; top call. (5) BETTER SINGLE also woke up with a driver change and Filion sticks here. She is a threat despite moving up. (8) WINDSUN GLORY finished just behind the choice and she is another who merits a long look on the class drop. (4) TWIN B TIPSTER was flying late and she was a bit unlucky when the pocket-sitter escaped very late to shade her on the wire. She should get a piece of this.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS

(7) BEAUMOND HANOVER has been protected while racing in non-winners races since he popped with a 1:49 4/5 sophomore debut effort on June 8th. With $106K up for grabs here, a much more aggressive approach is expected. (4) MAYHEM HANOVER caught a break last week when the pocket-sitter popped out just before the 3/4 pole and provided cover otherwise he would have been caught first up giving perfect cover to the choice. He rode that cover to a narrow victory but he is still one of the main contenders here. (3) TWIN B FRENCHTOAST is on a roll and he likely won't get bet that much again here. I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (5) DENALI SEELSTER goes for a barn that is always a threat in these races; consider for the exotics.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW 4 or $55,000 LT AE: NW $1,200 L4 - Pick 4

(1) MC PAT has been put in impossible spots early after leaving from the outside twice vs. better. He drops and draws inside here and this is where he should wake up. (7) BUSH MAN N has been meeting some tough sophomores recently. This may actually be an easier spot although the conditions of the race would suggest otherwise; using. (4) WEST COAST BEACH produced a sharp winning effort but was demoted last week. Racing between Grassroots engagements here, I'll use him underneath. (8) SO MUCH BETTOR is worth a look for the exotics here going for Moreau.

Race 5: FILLIES and MARES PREFERRED

(9) TREACHEROUS REIGN produced an impressive winning mile in her four-year-old debut last week and she gets the call to repeat despite drawing widest here. (7) SO MUCH MORE draws better and she should get back into contention this week; using. (5) BODICEA is hard to leave out because she doesn't need much of a breather racing on the engine. (10) SYLPH HANOVER was good last week when second to the choice but I'm not sure that the second tier post is great for her; using on the bottom.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS - Pick 5

(8) TATTOO ARTIST was hooked to identical 26 3/5 opening quarters last time and it made no difference as he drove on to another convincing win. The waters obviously get deeper here, but I'll give him the edge over the hype horse (4) INDICTABLE HANOVER who could be any kind but hasn't faced any top speed to this point. (7) BEACH BLANKET BOOK is flawless so far this year and if you like him tonight you are sure to get a much better price than he has paid so far in his three wins. (6) ANETO tries hard every week and he should make it into the Tri or Super here.

Race 7: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW $95,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(5) PHYSICALLYINCLINED drops to a spot where he should dominate on the front end. (6) DREAMFAIR MOXY is sharp and dangerous and he is the other one that I'll use in the Pick 5. (4) BETTOR B GOING comes off a sharp win but I'm not sure he measures up to the top two choices here; using underneath. (10) REAL WILLEY should get a piece of this dropping out of the same race as the choice.

Race 8: NW $16,500 L5 or $28,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(6) HIGHLAND TARTAN was part of some big early fractions racing against better and he should be tough in this spot tonight. (1) ROCKME ROLLME did well chasing the white-hot Tattoo Artist around the track last time and he should be the main danger here. (4) POINTOMYGRANSON continues to race well but he often falls short late. I'll use him to round out the Tri or Super. (7) TORRIN HANOVER was a predictable winner last week but I see him as a fringe player in this spot.

Race 9: F&M NW $6,200 LT or $15,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

(10) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE takes a big drop and she gets to follow a mare that typically blasts off the gate; top call. (2) MANHATTAN AGAIN finally gets a good draw here and she should enter contention this week. (3) CRACKLIN ROSIE couldn't seal the deal last week but that was a better effort and she should be heard from here. (1) VILLAGE JOULES will be there early again but a smaller share is likely for her in this spot.

Race 10: PREFERRED HANDICAP

(7) EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN paced tow sub-27 quarters early last time on his way to a second straight Preferred win and he may just be too tough right now for these. (6) WHEELS ON FIRE made two moves last week but the choice was unyielding. He is an Exacta factor again. (5) CASIMIR RICHIE P was 2nd to the choice last week and he is in the mix again with his good early speed. (1) EAST END is on a roll but his streak likely ends here in the top class.

Race 11: 4YO and Younger NW 3 or $37,500 LT

(6) MISSION BAY made several moves in a sharp victory last week and I'll give him the nod over (8) LOTTERY WINNER, who was a winner in his local debut while also making several moves in the race. (10) ST LADS BEAT IT was moving wide while the winner was slipping up the pylons. He isn't impossible in this spot. (1) THE WILD CARD faces tougher here and he is on the bottom of my Super. (9) DAY DELIGHT is one of several Grassroots winners in this race but from out there he is likely a bit player tonight.