Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/30

Meet Stats: 395 - 1237 / $2,102.00 (-$372.00)

Best Bets: 65 -116 / $229.40 (-$1.20)

Spot Plays: 33 - 115 / $222.90 (-$7.10)

Best Bet: WARRAWEE VITAL (2ND)

Spot Play: SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 3,4,9/6/2,6,8/6,8/1,7 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,6,8/5,7/6,8/1,3,6/1,6,7 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 6,8/1,7/3,6,8/5,7 = $24

Late Pick 4: 5,7/6,8/1,3,6/1,6,7 = $36

Race 1: F&M NW $2,900 L3 AE: OPT CLM $15,000 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) GOODNIGHT IRENE improved on the drop last week as expected but she was shaded by a rival that was also getting class relief. I'll give her the nod over (4) CHARMBO BRIE who wasn't far behind her last week and is getting closer to her initial win of 2022. (9) BIG DIAMOND should be close again racing at this level and maybe Drury rolls her this week and looks for the front early; upset chance. (10) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY drops and gets Henry back and he drives her best. She is in the exotic mix.

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Race 2: OPEN HANDICAP

(6) WARRAWEE VITAL might be 1 to 9 in here after pacing one of the fastest miles in Canadian history last week; enough said. (4) EAST END was a game 2nd and he can round out the Exacta again. (5) WHEELS ON FIRE comes to play every week and he should be part of the Tri again. (1) THE GREEK FREAK can come on late to round out the Super.

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Race 3: F&M NW $5,000 L5 or $15,200 L8 AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: POP UP STARTERS NW $40,000 IN 2022.

This race looks tailor-made for a mare that is going to be sitting back and making a big late rally and I'll give (2) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA top billing. (6) JM BETONSIX drops and she should also be coming on late; using. (8) BEACH MOMENT raced great in defeat last week but she likes the front and there will be others leaving tonight. I'd demand a price here. (4) TWIN B TIPSTER is another that should be closing late; using underneath.

Race 4: Winners of 3 but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT AE: 3YO and 4YO to be claimed for $65K - Pick 4

(8) POWERTRAIN has clearly hit his best stride. He paced a 26-flat third 1/4 uncovered last week and was still able to sustain his bid to the wire and take the win. I'll call him to repeat. (6) GREATEST ENDING was right there with the choice on the wire and he is an obvious threat here. (2) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS and (7) ST LADS STERLING are two of four sophomore sires stakes colts in the race that are capable but likely to be driven conservatively between Gold starts. I'll use them underneath.

Race 5: F&M NW $10,500 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $15,000 or less in L4 AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(1) JUST DAISY takes a big class plunge from the Mares Preferred here and this is a field that she should boss. (7) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP closed some ground in a super-fast race for the class last week. She should sit and rally again for a good share. (9) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL was a close 2nd to the choice on 6/17 and she is worth using underneath at a price here. (8) MISS ROCKADALI should flash her customary gate speed and she can stick around for a share in this field.

Race 6: NW $11,000 L5 or $21,000 L10 or NW $100,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 5

(6) RHYTHM IN MOTION steps up again but he couldn't be much sharper and he should get another good trip racing on or near the lead. A threepeat looms. (3) B STONEY was unlucky in defeat two starts back then in too high last week. He figures here and this is where he could take his first win since December 2020. (8) THATLL BE SPORTY has been uncorking some wicked late rallies, but he is probably going to have too far to come again. I'll use him underneath. (4) RESPECT OUR FLAG will pass some of these late. He is a good one to use on the bottom of the Tri and Super.

Race 7: NW $6,650 L5 or $17,500 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $9,000 or less L3 - Pick 4

(7) LETS GET PICKLED drops and McNair, who seems to hold the key to this gelding, gets back in the bike tonight; top call. (5) WIND BLOWN is another dangerous dropper who paced a sub-1:50 mile in victory here six starts back. He should get put into play by Kelly leaving the gate; using. (6) ROYAL RENEGADE should be passing horses again to land in the Tri or Super. (1) ROCKME ROLLME is another dropper that looks dangerous on paper, but he has missed four weeks and I am inclined to try to beat him out of the Tri considering that absence.

Race 8: FILLIES and MARES PREFERRED HANDICAP

(8) SHES NUN BETTOR N keeps winning and she never gets bet. She is sure to take action tonight, though, and she is strictly the one to beat. (6) VOELZ DELIGHT was too far back last week but she did well to power home in 53 1/5 to hit the board. She is sharp and dangerous. (7) SO MUCH MORE is so tough and so classy that she can never be discounted, but she is no longer dominant and she often gets overbet based on past results. I would let price be my guide here. (5) SETTN A PRECEDENT has never been better but this is a mighty class jump. I see her closing for a small share.

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Race 9: NW $15,000 L5 or $25,000 L10 or NW $135,000 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $16,000 or less in 1 of L4

(6) LAWLESS SHADOW was good last week but he was in a futile chase of a rival that was pacing out of his skin. I could see him leading all the way in this compact field. (3) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER went first up in that race which was mission impossible. He did well to get up for 3rd and he should be a big threat here. (1) CADILLAC BAYAMA drops and he is another contender is a small but competitive field. (5) SINTRA steps up after tripping out and beating easier. I'll use him on the bottom here.

Race 10: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L3 – Mandatory HI-5 Payout

This is one of the better betting races that I can remember with a mandatory High-5 payout featured. Any of five or six of them can likely win depending on pace/trip. (6) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER paced a terrific mile in defeat last week and he moves from the worst post to the best starting spot. I'll give him a slight nod. (7) SOMEWHEREINVERONA was also very good in defeat considering he was out the mile. He gets Macdonald back here and he should have a big shot. (1) HESINCONTROL continues to race well every week and he goes forward in the third 1/4 of every race. He's hard to leave off this High-5. (4) SOMBODYITREASURE has been really sharp since shipping in from Pennsylvania and he is likely to get a good trip on a helmet here. (11) FOREFATHER is sharp and dangerous but I don't love the second-tier post for him. I'll use him underneath.

Others to consider using underneath: (3) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR, who should sit an inside following trip throughout, (8) HUNTER HILL who comes in of an impressive score vs. lesser, and (9) DRAGON ENERGY, who rarely misses a check and will be a huge price.

My ticket: 1,6,7/1,6,7/1,3,4,6,7,11/1,3,4,6,7,11/1,3,4,6,7,8,9,11 = $57.60