Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/25/26

Top Pick Stats: 377/1210 (-$608.80)

Best Bets: 46/108 (-$32.40); Spot Plays: 26/112 (-$69.00)

Best Bet: ODDS ON BULLFROG (Race 10)

Spot Play: MADRID A (Race 6)

Early Pick-5: 4,6/1,4/4,8/5,6/9,10 $6.40

Middle Pick-5: 1,8/2,3/1,5/4,8/4,6 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 4,8/4,6/4,6/3,5/3,6 $6.40

Race 1: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS OR PROSPECT STARTERS.

(6) MAIZE AND BLUE can be forgiven for last week. He draws better against a field that is either not as consistent as him or on stale dates. (4) STONEBRIDGE WINGS comes out of the same race as Maize And Blue. He posted a better effort than I thought he was capable of considering the near month off. (7) TAVERN ONTHE GREEN got picked off in his latest which was a month ago now. He has the ability to win this race, but I think he will be a step short no matter the trip.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 3: 3 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(1) A CLEAN DEAL gets my nod because of how she came back in the June 26 Gold. The Fan Hanover elim hasn’t appeared to derail her season. I nearly took a swing with (4) LAVENDER SEELSTER because of her big kick. She was used too hard two back and got a check from an impossible spot in her latest. (2) POWNAL BAY BOBBI was a good second in her latest and has held her own in the other two Gold legs.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,850 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. AE: NW $24,000 IN 2026 (MIN 10 STS). AE: NW 2 RACES IN 2026 (MIN 7 STS).

(8) WICKEDPACE should flash early speed and will likely look to wire this field. I think she can. (4) DIXIE DREAM gets around the bigger track much better and showed that last week. She should improve second start here. (2) PRETTY MISSY MAY showed signs of wear last week but draws much better tonight. We could see an off the pace trip this evening.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $3,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $985 P/S IN 2025-26 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $12,500.

(5) PIPERS LUNA gets a steep drop after many weeks of holding her own against much classier mares. I’ll forgive the break she made before the start last time. (6) ACEFORTYFOUR DAISY should be in a similar striking spot because bottom level mares don’t tend to sustain their early speed. (4) BIG NIPPER has done just that in her last two, though. She will likely be forward again and try to wire the field.

Race 5: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(9) JJ XAVIER was a good second last week and has gotten into contention with multiple different trips as of late. I’ll give him the nod. (10) UNCLE SHANK A has the most raw speed in this group but will need to work very hard from the high draw against these. (8) STICKEMINLETHIMGO is in a weird spot with two main early speed threats to his outside. They could set things up for him, but a live helmet may also be necessary.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $24,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $105,000 LIFETIME. AE: NW 2 RACES LAST 8 STARTS.

(8) MADRID A is too sharp to ignore right now. When you consider the multiple ways she can get into contention, she should be very tough here. (1) GRIT N GRACE drops from the Open and is likely to try and take no prisoners up front. (5) ONE LAST WISH was lethal on the lead last week which has been a preferred tactic in the summer months.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES OPEN.

(2) SENSATIONALIZE A closed like a rocket in her first Open try. With a short field and the ML favorite absolutely feeling the effects of an extended campaign, I’ll give her the nod. (3) ABSOLUTION will be moving with a similar stretch kick, though she has some tactical speed which could allow her to get the jump. (6) LETS N JOY N is talented enough to rebound if she gets things her way up front.

Race 8: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $30,750 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $50,000 IN 2026 (MIN 8 STS).

(5) VESSEM N flew home in his Canadian debut and appears to be a horse with a ton of speed. (1) CENTURY KOMODO is fourth back and has improved with each start. He could put it together tonight and it wouldn’t surprise me. (9) DALTON SHARD N has proven that he can hang with some of the top pacers on the grounds. He shouldn’t be overlooked.

Race 9: OPEN.

(8) ERVIN HANOVER finished last in the William Haughton, but I think he is capable of bouncing back against provincial Open types. I severely undervalued (4) CRACK SHOT last week, but the races wound up getting cancelled. I think his best could allow him to pose a real threat to the favorite. (2) BRUE HANOVER likely wasn’t at 100% after being off for three weeks, but still paced a sub-:49 mile. I think he could be even better tonight.

Race 10: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 RACES OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME.

(6) ODDS ON BULLFROG is in career best form right now and could pick off a couple of colts who are prepping between Golds. (4) WHOLETTHEDOGSOUT is at a disadvantage from a date standpoint, but he is in vicious form right now. (9) BORDERLINE MOBBY pulled off the upset over Beau Jangles in his latest and had no trouble contending against these types two and three starts ago.

Race 11: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $60,000 IN 2026 (MIN 15 STARTS). AE: 4 YR OLDS NW $20,750 LAST 8 STARTS.

(4) MOMAS SON BYRNE produced a vicious final quarter in his latest and should be placed closer to the lead tonight. I’ll give him the nod. (6) COLD CREEK QUESO tends to race better when up close and should be given that chance from a good post. (2) DONT DROP THE BALL has been getting checks against better horses and had a tough two-move trip in his latest. My only concern is that he hasn’t raced in a month.

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Race 12: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $15,850 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $19,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: NW $100 IN 2026.

(5) LOUS WORLD gets the nod from Mark Mac and should be looking to leave early and go down the road. (3) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT gets a driver change after being parked for the mile behind cover. Surely this is the week he wins, because I picked against him. (6) ITS MAJOR MAJOR A is third back and really should improve when dropping in class, but I don’t know if it will be enough of a form improvement to get him the win.

Race 13: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $6,000 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $10,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,685 P/S IN 2025-26. AE: NW $12,750 IN 2026. (MIN 8 STARTS).

(6) FRANCO SANTANA N feels like a pure all or nothing play in his second start back. He’ll likely be blasting early and looking to wire them, a recipe for volatility. (3) SCAMMER should use his big kick to great effect again against a field that is struggling to stay in form. Watch out for him at a price. (7) HAZEE COAST hung slightly in the final eighth but continued to move forward all the way to the wire. If things fall apart, he will capitalize.