Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/20

Top Pick Stats: 387 - 1142 / $2,155.00 (-$129.00)

Best Bets: 57 - 107 / $183.50 (-$30.50)

Spot Plays: 25 - 104 / $231.90 (+$23.90)

Best Bet: NIJINSKY (8TH)

Spot Play: DRAGONONTHEBEACH (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,6/1,4,7/3,6/4,6/3,7,8 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 4/5,7,9/2/2,5,6/2,3,4 = $5.40

Early Pick 4: 4,6/3,7,8/4/5,7,9 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 2/2,5,6/2,3,4/3,7 = $3.60

Race 1: Horses that have started for a purse of $15K or less in 1 of L4 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) BOSTON BOUND closed on a class dropping winner that was pacing in 1:50-flat last week in a solid effort. He fits well here, and he gets the nod. (6) JACK PANIC raced very aggressively last week, and he hung in there decently, considering. He will be on my Pick 5 ticket. (5) RON is sharp, and he will get there one of these weeks, but he is hard for me to back to win considering how often he has been the chalk and failed to convert so far this year. (3) MAPPOS LION had a start back and he is capable of better. He can improve enough to take a share here.

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Race 2: NW $9,000 L5 or $18,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: NW $34,000 in 2024 (Min. 10 starts)

(7) ORDER ONE TO GO faces tougher racing off the claim tonight, but he couldn’t be any sharper. I’ll stick with him in this spot. (1) FRANKIE FRANKIE jogged at this level two starts back and I think he will work out a good trip tonight racing near the lead throughout. He is in with a decent chance on the class drop. (4) DUPREE HANOVER takes a big drop here and if there is a spot where he is going to wake up, this is likely it. (3) POINTS NORTH dropped and crushed now he moves back up. Coming off that hard effort, I’ll use him underneath here.

Race 3: F&M NW $9,550 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: N/A $1,500 P/S IN 2023-24 OR NW $16,500 IN 2024

(6) GLENBORO signaled a return to her best form when she finished 2nd to classy Huntress last week now she drops to a spot where she should be able to work out a winning trip racing on or near the lead; top call. (3) FLIGHT CREW N jogged last time she raced this low three starts back. She should be right there tonight if she stays flat. (2) BLUEMEA KISS steps up but she moves inside and keeps Macdonald and that makes her a contender. (1) CHEESY SMILE fits better here and she should close to take a share.

Race 4: Winners of 4 but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT - Pick 4

(4) LEAVE IT TO LEO is razor sharp and the presence of (6) REDWOOD HANOVER should ensure that the former offers a good price here. The latter is obvious dropping out of the tough Graduate Series but he has lost 19 in a row since winning the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes last year. He could make a fool of me and jog here, but I’m not sold he is any better than Leave It To Leo right now. (7) REIGN SUPREME comes off a nice effort and he can contend for a share here with the improving form he brings to the race. (9) KAPTAIN KARLOS is another that is racing better that is worth a look for the exotics.

Race 5: 5YO and younger NW2 or $38,250 LT

(3) BOLD SPIRIT drops back to the NW2 level, and he gets Roy in the bike tonight. There are things to like here, and he gets top billing. (7) PREMIER FIRST STAR was good in defeat last week, edged by a rival that was just a bit better than him. He is sharp and improving; using. (8) ST LADS CRIMINAL’s first start over Mohawk was good and he is an obvious contender on paper. I just wonder if he will end up too far back starting from a wide post. I’d demand a price here. (2) LOUS WORLD got bet down to 1 to 5 last week and he couldn’t seal the deal. He could be sharper now returning in seven days, but I prefer to use him underneath.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD MID-SEASON FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES - Pick 5

(4) ITS A LOVE THING is currently the best sophomore pacing filly on the continent; enough said. (2) PASS LINE set an unsustainable pace last week when 7th to the choice. She has a better chance to complete the Exacta tonight. (8) ODDS ON PLATINUM is in great form but this is a tall order starting from a wide post; using underneath. (5) GREATEST PLEASURE adds Lasix coming off her win in the Kin Pace. She should be in the mix for a small share.

Race 7: F&M NW $14,250 L5 AE: NW $35,000 L5 to draw outside.

(5) STYLE FOR A MILE is one of three dropping from the top class here, and she drew best of the trio. I think McNair will look to send her right down the road tonight. (9) ANGOSTURA HANOVER has been sharp as a tack for weeks. She is hard to leave out at this level even starting from the widest post. (8) CAVIAR N CRACKERS should get a good piece of this using her big late kick. (4) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL likely comes on late and rounds out the Tri or Super.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD MID-SEASON FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

North America Cup winner (2) NIJINSKY will be 1 to 20 in this sires stakes and I can’t imagine a way he gets beat. (6) STORM SHADOW will likely blast to the front leaving then let the choice go and ride in his pocket. He can complete the Exacta. (5) WIKIPEDIA has been racing really well recently and he’s worth using underneath at a price. (7) STONEBRIDGE THRILL flew home last week. He might be able to sneak into the bottom of the Super.

Race 9: NW $28,000 L5 AE: 4YO

(6) NO CONTROL raced well in the recently concluded Graduate series and he should be tough in here racing on or near the lead. (2) P L OZZY took a new life’s mark two starts back and he has a shot here if Macdonald can find the pocket early. (5) WRITE ME A ROSE has one of the best late kicks in this field. He should be closing for a share. (3) CODENAME CIGAR BOX is hot right now, but this is a much tougher field than the one he just beat; small share predicted.

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Race 10: F&M NW $4,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $25,000 AE: N/A $1,165 P/S IN 2024 OR NW $14,500 IN 2024 (MIN 5 STARTS)

(4) WATCH HER DEWITT raced better last week and either of the mares that beat her would likely be favored in this field. She likely gets sent this time and she will probably be the one to catch and beat. (2) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN paced a 54 1/5 back 1/2 and could do no better than finish sixth. The smaller field should help her tonight. She is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (3) SILENT CROSSING tried a wide move that didn’t work out last week. I could see her sitting a trip racing close to the front this time and landing in the money. (6) TWIN B TIPSTER drops, and she closed for third last time she raced at this level. She is in the exotics mix.

Race 11: NW $16,000 L5 or NW $32,100 L8 AE: NW $500 in 2024 - Mandatory Jackpot Hi 5 payout

(3) DRAGONONTHEBEACH closed well in a 1:48 2/5 mile, pacing his own back 1/2 in 52 3/5. He should beat these if he is in striking range at the head of the lane. (7) THE GREEK FREAK has hit peak form, pacing a huge opening 1/2 and staying for the win last week. We know from past experience that he is just as effective closing from off the pace; Exacta factor. (11) POSEIDON SEELSTER starts in post 12 due to a late scratch here and he should get a piece of this on the class drop. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT is rounding into form, and he should take another share here passing some rivals in the back 1/2. (1) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B is racing well, and he probably won’t get bet much in this spot; price look for the High-5.