Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/19

Top Pick Stats: 69/211 (-$134.00)

Best Bets: 7/19 (-$9.10); Spot Plays: 3/19 (-$23.80)

Best Bet: ALLSTAR MANIAC (Race 8)

Spot Play: TILTHECOWSCOMEHOME (Race 7)

Early Pick 5: 1,3/6/4,7/5,6,9/1,8 $4.80

Late Pick 5: 3,6/10/6/5,7/5 $0.80

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW $55,000 IN 2025.

(1) TELLS ON A ROLL got back to top form last week. If she can repeat it, she looms as a major repeat contender. (3) CENTURY JAMILA has been holding her own at the top level. Her versatility makes her a major factor. (2) ODDS ON PLATINUM got picked off after a speed try when dropping from the Preferred. She has been unable to finish miles in the past, but is usually in contention. (8) SORCHA SEELSTER could get a decent setup if the pace gets hot. She has in the past, though, and hasn’t gotten the job done.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED.

(6) CAVIAR N CRACKERS got back to her winning ways after a first over trip. She is getting back to top form again, and last time she did that, she stayed good for quite a while. (5) ANGOSTURA HANOVER was a strong second after finding room at the top of the stretch. She has proven herself against these. (4) GRIT N GRACE has won three in a row and has been excellent over the last month. She should get a good trip again. (3) GLENBORO likely would have won if she had a little more room on the inside. She has been outracing her odds at the top level and can do so again.

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Race 3: WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 RACES OR $96,000 (OS $125,000) LIFETIME.

(4) SET SHOT was up against it when sitting so far back. He is much better when up close and should get an aggressive steer tonight. (7) STONEBRIDGE WIZARD has yet to find the form that made him a top 2YO, but has the speed to pop up with a big effort in a shorter field like this. (5) CONTROL ROCKS finished off his mile after an aggressive move to the lead. He will be used heavily in the early stages. (6) R J RINGO could make some noise if he fires his best. He was excellent three starts ago but has tailed off since then.

Race 4: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(9) B STONEY was flying once J-Mac fed him racetrack in the stretch. He should be forwardly placed again this week and can make it three wins in a row. (6) STASH IT AWAY continues to produce solid finishes with grinding efforts. He is a must use on tickets, especially if his price sits around his ML. (5) HOWMAC VICTOR deserves some forgiveness because he was first over against the tough Dirty Lil Piglet. He races off the claim tonight and can easily rebound. (1) TARQUINUS HANOVER was a dominant winner in his latest, but steps up to face tougher company. The speed he showed last week can get him a piece.

Race 5: NW $9,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(8) HEAD HONCHO seems like a horse that is against it given his style, but he paces forward no matter the scenario in front of him, and he can carry speed with the best of them. He intrigues me at a potential square price. (1) DRAGONONTHEBEACH could easily spoil the party if horses tire on the lead. You could get an improved price with J-Mac not in town. (3) P L OZZY is one that I still contend is one of the trickiest upper level horses to handicap. He’s very fast, but how does he race after setting those huge fractions? I’m really not sure what (5) CLEVER CODY’s path is. There shouldn’t be any stakes in his near future, and he was in a spot where he really should have stepped forward, but really didn’t fire. He shouldn’t be anywhere near the favorite tonight, unless somebody knows something.

Race 6: POP UP SERIES: HORSES & GELDINGS NW $25,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(3) FOREFATHER sustained his big move and drew away to his first victory of 2025. The world is his oyster now, right? In all seriousness, he was sitting on a win like that, and has a major chance to repeat. (6) ULYSSES is tricky to read, and when you watch him, it gets more confusing. He is close to getting over the hump, but hasn’t won yet this year. Another horse you must watch on the tote board and Will Pays. (5) WALLACE HARTLEY got out of the pocket behind a tiring horse and was able to get up for second. He should be forward again and produce another strong finish. (2) UP JOEYS CREDIT is another grinder in a field full of them. He can pick up a piece.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(10) TILTHECOWSCOMEHOME might have paced the most impressive mile in the July 5 Gold. He was on the outside for a long time and continued to make up ground, even if it was marginal. He gets another test tonight from the widest post, but appears to have plenty of talent and speed to cancel that out. (8) BEAU JANGLES is the logical one to beat after his stunning debut win. I think these top two stand out. (9) REDLAND ROCKET MAN is in a tough spot here, but he appears to have plenty more under the hood. If you watch his replay, McClure had a huge hold of this guy for the entire stretch. It could be too much too soon, but I have to include him after seeing that. (5) WINDOR has already shown to have some staying power after grinding out a third place finish in that aforementioned Gold. He is a logical underneath player.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME. AE: OS 4 YEAR OLDS NW $11,500 IN 2025.

(6) ALLSTAR MANIAC got away towards the back of a short field, then had nowhere to go until late in the stretch. He should be set for a big effort tonight. (7) THE VICAR was first over in a fast mile and was never getting past Courts On Fire, who was excellent that night. He narrowly missed second and I thought raced well. He can spice up the exotics. (5) AQUINAS HANOVER has been better since adding Lasix, but is still coming up short. He is hard to leave off tickets. (1) BLUE BAR fights for minor checks and has the speed to pick off rivals late.

Race 9: NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $27,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW 8 RACES LIFETIME. AE: NW $75,000 IN 2025 (MIN 15 STARTS).

I was a bit ambitious with (7) WRITE ME A ROSE in his latest, thinking he could pick off the prepping Lite Up The World and Prince Hal Hanover, but many others did too, as he took plenty of betting support. This is a group he should have a much better shot of taking on, and taking down. (5) PACINO HANOVER drops back to the level where he was a winner two back. His form hasn’t taken a hit despite the fifth place finish last week. (2) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT was a stride or two away from picking off Jack Panic last week, but he had to settle for second. He could get a setup again in here and be dangerous, but he might be overbet again. (4) STORM SHADOW just missed after a first over grind. He was battling extremely hard at the wire as he usually does.

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Race 10: PREFERRED.

(5) BRUE HANOVER is a comically short price on the ML because he deserves to be. Someone needs to beat him before that changes. (1) DUBLIN DASHER paced his second straight big mile and just missed last week. He is a logical exacta partner. (2) CENTURY KOMODO continued his streak of hitting the board last week. He can do it again with another likely grinding trip. (6) TAURASI just missed against Ervin Hanover in his latest but that was almost a month ago now. He could be a step short.

Race 11: POP UP SERIES: HORSES & GELDINGS NW $25,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(2) MAYHEM HANOVER races for top connections that could get a huge mile out of him when shipping in. Now would be the time to take a shot, because you’re not getting 4-1 next week if he improves. (4) THUNDER COUNTRY was an impressive winner after grinding down the leaders. He is back in sharp form right now and deserves respect. As does (5) RESPECT OUR FLAG who should be able to capitalize if the pace gets faster, and it seems likely to. (10) LAMBORGHINI LOU had a brutal trip in his latest, and now draws widest. He could look to latch onto a live helmet tonight. (7) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS comes off Lasix which adds to his mountain of question marks. A major red flag for me on top.