Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/18/26

Top Pick Stats: 366/1157 (-$560.90)

Best Bets: 45/103 (-$29.50); Spot Plays: 24/107 (-$66.10)

Best Bet: CAPTAIN FEAR NOT (Race 1)

Spot Play: WHEELS UP (Race 10)

Early Pick-5: 4/3,6/7,8/5,8/2,4 $3.20

Middle Pick-5: 1,4/3,6/1,2,6/1/3 $2.40

Late Pick-5: 1/1,3/1,9/1,6/7,9 $3.20

Race 1: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $19,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $2,290 P/S IN 2025-2026. AE: NW $53,000 IN 2026 (MIN 15 STS).

Fine, I’ll try (4) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT again. He gets a driver change after being parked for the mile behind cover. I think this is the week he bolts to the front. (7) DONT DROP THE BALL has been getting checks against tougher and had a tough two-move trip in his latest. My only concern is that he hasn’t raced in a month. (5) RIPASSO fits much better at this level and should be passing horses late as he normally does.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (OS 4) RACES OR $60,000 (OS $85,500) LIFETIME.

(6) EASY STATION was the easiest of winners two starts ago at this level. She stands out here. (3) POWNAL BAY BOBBI was a good second last time and should be handled as aggressively this week. (8) LAVENDER SEELSTER doesn’t tend to sustain her move when on the front and she gets a new driver this week. Consider that a recipe for an off-the-pace trip.

Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(7) STICKEMINLETHIMGO likely gets back to racing near the lead where he was very good back in early June. If he makes it there, we’ll see if he can sustain it. (8) JJ XAVIER was a good second last week and has gotten into contention with multiple different trips as of late. (1) CHICKEN N DICE made multiple moves last week and posted his best race in quite a while. I can see him getting a piece tonight.

Race 4: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS STARTERS.

(5) L P BAY made multiple moves last week and eventually grinded down the leader. I can see a similar trip and effort tonight. (8) MASS DEPLOYMENT trotted a great mile at Clinton last time and appears to fit very well at the Grassroots level. I’m pretty sure (2) TAVERN ONTHE GREEN was my best bet when he last raced. I’m not sure how he lost there, but considering that was his last race, he could be a step short.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $44,500) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YR OLDS NW $15,000 IN 2026.

(4) CACKLE BERRY set another new career best last week and shows no signs of slowing down with tonight’s good draw. (2) MADAME PANIC is second back after a strong second behind Cackle Berry. If she steps forward, she could pose a bigger threat to that rival tonight. (8) ON FLEEK also set a career best but has to leave from an outside post with other speed types inside of her.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $24,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW 2 RACES L8. AE: N/A $1,925 P/S IN 2026.

(4) GRIT N GRACE drops from the Open and is likely to try and take no prisoners up front. (1) ONE LAST WISH was lethal on the lead last week which has been a preferred tactic in the summer months. (7) HORIZON SEELSTER doesn’t have as quick of a turn of foot in the early portion of the race which could leave her stuck first over. I’ll use her underneath tonight.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(6) GOGO GADGET was kept to task after his main rival broke and he was left with a five length lead. He has done what has been asked of him thus far. (3) TH BENEDICT exploded off cover and tracked down the leaders while being widest of anyone. A promising debut to be sure. (5) MEETMEONTHEBEACH had to wait for room to develop but sprinted well once he was fully activated. This Burke colt appears ready for more.

Race 8: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $28,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $75,000 IN 2025-2026.

(6) VESSEM N flew home in his Canadian debut and appears to be a horse with a ton of speed. (1) CENTURY KOMODO is fourth back and has improved with each start. He could put it together tonight and it wouldn’t surprise me. (2) DALTON SHARD N has proven that he can hang with some of the top pacers on the grounds. He shouldn’t be overlooked.

Race 9: OPEN.

(1) BRUE HANOVER likely wasn’t at 100% after being off for three weeks, but still paced a sub-:49 mile. I think he should be even better tonight. We know what (4) CRACK SHOT is capable of when at his best. I’ll bank on him being a step short after a subpar effort. (5) DUBLIN DASHER is back in winning form right now which I didn’t really expect to happen so soon. He deserves a look.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

I couldn’t quite tell if it was a speed break from (3) WHEELS UP, but he got out of rhythm for a split second and it threw him off his gait. He was motoring when he got back on the course. (1) ATLAS ROSS got a nice tow into the race and ripped off cover to get the job done. He gets a deserving shot at the Gold level. (4) BULLDOG XPRESS was a fine second behind Gogo Gadget but was never really threatening. He can get a piece.

Race 11: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $13,750 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E).

(1) SCAMMER should use his big kick to great effect again against a field that is struggling to stay in form. Watch out for him at a price. (9) ITS MAJOR MAJOR A is third back and really should improve when dropping in class, but I don’t know if it will be enough of a form improvement to get him the win. (7) MAJOR PERRY N draws better tonight and should be in the mix for a piece if forwardly placed.

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Race 12: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 RACES OR $120,000 LIFETIME.

(6) ODDS ON BULLFROG is in career best form right now and could pick off a couple of colts who are prepping between Golds. (1) AXIAL gets back to the level where he is a consistent force. Hard to not use him in the mix. (7) BORDERLINE MOBBY pulled off the upset over Beau Jangles in his latest and had no trouble contending against these types two and three starts ago.

Race 13: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $6,000 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $10,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,630 P/S IN 2025-26.

(7) FRANCO SANTANA N feels like a pure all or nothing play in his second start back. He’ll likely be blasting early and looking to wire them, a recipe for volatility. (9) HAZEE COAST hung slightly in the final eighth but continued to move forward all the way to the wire. If things fall apart, he will capitalize. (1) LARCENY was better last week and gets a big post switch. Although he doesn’t stay in form, he has been picking up checks and can get a piece tonight.