Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/17

Meet Stats: 73 - 236 / $433.40 (-$59.60)

Best Bets: 10 – 24 / $48.90 (+$0.90)

Spot Plays: 10 – 23 / $81.60 (+$35.60)

Best Bet: TRACEUR HANOVER (6TH)

Spot Play: IM NOT BAD (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,5,6/6,7,8/2/2,8/1,4,5 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 6/4,6/5,7,8/4,5/2,6 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 2,8/1,4,5/6/4,6 = $12

Late Pick 4: 5,7,8/4,5/2,6/3,4,8 = $36

Race 1: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,600 L10 LT **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) CASIMIR RICHIE P didn't expend a lot of energy last out in the top class at Grand River. Expect that to change tonight with him facing easier, drawing better, and getting Roy in the bike; top call. (6) HERVEY HANOVER fits nicely here on the class drop and he is likely the one the choice will be looking to fend off late. (2) H P NAPOLEON almost won one level higher than this three starts back. He isn't out of this but he could get overbet on the class drop. (1) BIG BANG BOOM is sharp and he can take another share tonight.

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Race 2: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,600 L9

(8) REAL WILLEY hasn't raced this low in a while and he should have a good chance of beating these racing on the front end or from out of the pocket. (7) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN raced well with McClure driving last week and he has enough class to contend despite moving up one level; using. (6) GROOVY JOE should find these easier and he isn't without a shot in here. He is likely to be more aggressive tonight. (5) ROYAL RENEGADE is likely to pass a few of these late and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

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Race 3: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

(2) FREE WILLY HANOVER kicks off 2021 in a field he should beat and he gets the nod. (6) BUZZ was close at this level two starts back and he should be an Exacta factor tonight. (5) ODDS ON AMETHYST has seen much better days but he is loaded with class and he could wake up at this level if he behaves tonight. (1) WARRAWEE ROO couldn't get the job done at 3 to 5 now he faces what is likely a tougher NW $5K L5 field here; using underneath.

Race 4: NW3 or $53,000 LT - Pick 4

(8) POWERTRAIN made several moves to win again on 7/10 and he should be tough once again despite drawing widest. (2) P L OZZY was tough as nails setting big fractions vs. Gold horses and hanging in there late; the main danger. (7) NO PLAN INTENDED faces tougher here but he is sharp and he can take a share. (1) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N has missed a month so I prefer to use him underneath vs. these.

Race 5: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

This race likely will come down to the two droppers out of the Grassroots (4) PREMIER NACHO and (1) CODYS WATCHING. I'll give the nod to the former who gets Henry today and could lead these all the way. (5) NELSONEDDY HANOVER picks up teamster Macdonald here coming off a good effort and he should threaten for at least a share in this spot. (6) WARRAWEE WHYNOT is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change.

Race 6: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,600 L10 - Pick 5

(6) TRACEUR HANOVER raced his eyeballs out in defeat last week when hooked in a speed duel for most of the race. He should get an easier trip this week and handle these. (1) KWIK TALKIN was resilient on the engine last week in a sharp win and he should be an Exacta factor again here. (7) CAPTAIN VIDEO is forced to step up one level here to face tougher; smaller share predicted. (2) MAJOR CUSTARD hasn't had much luck since shipping east but he should be good for a share in this spot.

Race 7: NW $16,000 L5 or $27,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(4) HAIL CHRISTIAN N takes the plunge from the top class and Christoforou will likely be looking to send him right down the road tonight; top call. (6) COLD CREEK CABO was right there at this level last time in a fast race and he should be the main danger. (3) GO WEST GO FAST was motoring late last week in an improved effort. He should be part of the Tri or Super. (9) POINTOMYGRANSON is game and consistent but from out there facing a big class dropper I can only use him underneath tonight.

Race 8: NW $11,500 L5 or $23,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 - Pick 4

(7) EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN is likely to blast right to the front tonight and he should be tough to catch on the class drop. (8) SWEET DEISEL was second to a tough rival three starts back when he last raced in this class and he should be a threat tonight but the choice has post position advantage. (5) FAST N FIRST was game in defeat last week and he can take a share here despite moving up in class. (1) ROCKIN N TALKIN is unlikely to be first up again tonight. I see him taking a share off a following trip.

Race 9: NW $30,000 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $80,000 AE: Mares

(5) SINTRA meets a field he should beat here and I expect Jamieson to be more aggressive early in the mile. (4) POINTS NORTH just took a new life's mark and he will be dangerous if he gets left alone on the lead for too long in this short field. (6) SO MUCH MORE faces the boys tonight and she has beat them before. As the likely second choice, I'll try to beat her out of the Exacta this time starting from the widest post. (1) ROCKME ROLLME will likely get another good following trip and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

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Race 10: 5YO and Younger NW6 or $95,000

(2) BULLDOG HANOVER paced what many saw as the most impressive mile of the meet on 7/3 and he gets the call to repeat despite facing older and racing between stakes engagements here. (6) SECOND BRUISER was a solid second to the choice in that race and he seems to improve every start. He is an Exacta factor here. (1) ENAVANT had his win streak snapped last week by an aggressive rival who attacked right after this gelding made his second move to the front. He still finished gamely, but I'm not sure he is fast enough to go with the top two choices here. I'd demand a price. (4) BEE TWO BEE is in the midst of a solid campaign but he takes a big step up here; smaller share predicted.

Race 11: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(4) IM NOT BAD gets a big driver change here while making his second start out of the McNair barn and he gets top billing at what should be a square price with him facing a couple of class droppers. (3) JM JACK OF HEARTS gets a barn change and a class drop and while he is almost sure to wake up in this spot, he could get overbet. (8) IDEAL PERCEPTION is the other dropper that figures to go much better in this spot; using. (6) CORTEZ THE KILLER has a string of 4ths on his card and that streak could continue in this spot. (5) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES should be good for another closing effort to take a share.