Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/16

Meet Stats: 353 - 1132 / $1,876.00 (-$367.70)

Best Bets: 61 - 107 / $213.90 (+$0.90)

Spot Plays: 30 - 107 / $191.10 (-$23.90)

Best Bet: ACAPULCO SUNBURN (4TH)

Spot Play: LADYSMITH (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 6/1,2,5,7,8/1,4,5/7/4,5,7,8 = $12

Late Pick 5: 3,6,7/2,3/2,3,6/3/1,4,6 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 7/4,5,7,8/3,6,7/2,3 = $24

Late Pick 4: 3/1,4,6/5,7/2,3,5,7,8 = $30

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Second Leg 2YO Fillies **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

Millar Farms unveils (6) SAVETHELASTDANCE, the homebred full-sister to Silver Label (13-8-2-0, $478K, 1:50 4/5 S.) who kicked off her career with a Grassroots win as a big chalk. More of the same is likely coming with this filly tonight. (7) CARLA CAM has been an impressive first-over winner in two straight to start her career and she should be the main threat here. (5) CHEESE SO PRETTY raced decently vs. Gold fillies but the choice might be too tough in here. I'll use her underneath. (8) PROVE EM WRONG can improve enough in this second start to land in the exotics.

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Race 2: Ontario sired 3YO Colts and Geldings

Tough race to predict with Gold horses racing for $20K between stakes starts. I'll side with (5) MACHO PHIL, who seems sure to get put into action early and have position near the front when they turn for home. (1) ST LADS STERLING was dominant in a Gold race last time but an unhurried 2nd in a NW3 race two starts back. He is likely to be odds on and he is no lock to get the same drive and trip that he got on July 2nd. Your call. (2) KOLBY TWO STEP was good last time, but the choice out tripped him. He is in with a shot here. (7) MAGICAL ARTHUR should get position racing near the front tonight and take another share.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Second Leg 2YO Fillies

(4) GRANDEUR SEELSTER was a victim of trip and pace in her debut and she still flew late to just miss. I think she gets more aggressive here and graduates. (5) VIRTUAL KISS flashed speed then got shuffled vs. Gold company on debut. She can go much better here in a Grassroots race; using. (1) SWEETEST BELLE got hammered at the windows for her debut, she was aggressive and she got rewarded. She is an obvious contender here. $33,000 Ontario Select yearling (3) WATCH HER DEWITT should be in the exotics mix on debut.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW 3 or $48,500 LT AE: 3YO and 4YO to be claimed for $35,000 - Pick 4

(7) ACAPULCO SUNBURN lays over this mediocre NW3 field and he should have no problem taking care of business tonight. Not much went right for (2) MR BEAST when he tried Gold company. He fits well here and he can be an Exacta factor. (9) HES A LADIES MAN should get position near the front leaving the gate and he can land in the exotics at a price. (4) MOMAS SON BYRNE should sit another good trip and take a slice.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Second Leg 2YO Fillies

(4) ST LADS DARK ANGEL is the seventh foal of his dam to make it to the races and the other six are all winners. She motored late in her second qualifier and I'll side with her on debut. (7) LYONS ADDICTION was only four lengths back in a Gold race that featured much better fillies than she faces here. She is in with a good shot tonight. (8) CAPRI SUN was first up in a bad spot chasing a big chalk that was accelerating in the second 1/2. She could get more aggressive early here and she is another in with a shot. (5) DANCE WITH TABBY was decent in her debut and she goes for strong connections. She is in the exotics mix.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Second Leg 2YO Fillies - Pick 5

(7) SHAKE IT TWICE uncorked a 55-flat back 1/2 on debut to just miss while lacking room in deep stretch and she gets the nod here with a more aggressive steer expected. (6) YS BOOKWRITER was 2nd to a big chalk in her debut and she should be sent forward leaving the gate again tonight; using. (3) FINE BY ME comes out of a strong race and she can be much better with that debut under her belt. Consider using her on multi-race tickets. (1) BLUE GLAMBER moves back to the rail post which I don't love, but she should be good for a share.

Race 7: 3YO Grassroots Starters

(2) PERSISTANT BOY couldn't have won any easier last week and he is strictly the one to beat here. (3) FINAL CHEESERECIPE was really good recovering from an early break and he has upset potential tonight; using. (4) KAPORAL was a game winner but Filion chose the choice over him here. I'll use him underneath. (1) COLIGNY HANOVER should get a following trip and come on late for a share.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Second Leg 2YO Fillies

(3) LADYSMITH lacked room late in the mile on 7/5 which likely cost her a placing. She can beat these with slight improvement and more racing room in the lane. (6) GLENBORO raced great but she provided a perfect pocket for the even money favorite who edged past her late. She should be a big threat tonight. (2) ONE LAST WISH took a mid-race shuffle as the lead changed hands and then finished evenly. I see her in the exotics mix tonight. (5) HURRIKANE MSRODINE can improve enough in this second start to grab a slice.

Race 9: NW $11,250 L5 or $23,500 L10 or NW $115,000 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $16K or less L4 - Pick 4

(3) GREATEST ENDING faces older horses here but this has to be an easier spot than the Meadowlands Pace eliminations and he should take care of business. (1) ARMOR SEELSTER's form is improving and he should rally for a good slice here. (8) ENAVANT flashed big early speed which can be a sign that he is coming around now. I think he sits and rallies here. (4) SINTRA comes off a private sale to The Stable so it will be interesting to see how he goes here. I expect a late close to get a small share.

Race 10: NW $20,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $145,000 LT AE: NW $3,000 in 2022

(6) MAPPOS LION couldn't be any sharper right now and he gets the call to repeat coming off a game first up win. (4) THE GREEK FREAK was right there at the wire with the choice and he is another very sharp horse currently and the likely main threat. (1) LAWLESS SHADOW will be happy that Warrawee Vital isn't lined up on the gate tonight He is the third one that is in with a shot here. (7) POSEIDON SEELSTER figures to improve on the drop but beating both of the top three choices will be no easy feat; using underneath.

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Race 11: NW $11,250 L5 or $23,500 L10 or NW $115,000 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $16K or less L4

(7) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N drops after finishing a good 4th in a strong field. He should be tough vs. these. (5) TWIN B HEART THROB is an honest trier that could do here with the right trip; using. (2) JOELSY HANOVER comes off two non-threatening 2nds in a row and he seems likely to take another slice here. (9) NOCH TEN brings it every week and he will offer a good price here stepping up and moving to the widest post. Consider using him on the bottom of the exotics.

Race 12: Horses that raced for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of last 4

(3) BRAEVIEW BONDI A was a game winner at a level similar to this one two starts back and McClure is sure to get aggressive with him on the class drop tonight; top call. (2) THATLL BE SPORTY is sharp and dangerous moving inside where he can get a better start this week; using. (8) SOMEWHEREINVERONA was impressive in victory last week and Henry chose him over the choice. He should be a threat despite stepping up. (5) HES SWIFT should get position near the front leaving the gate and stick around for a share. (7) REAGAN BLUE CHIP will be passing some of these late and he is a good one to use on the bottom of the exotics.