Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/15

Top Pick Stats: 312 - 956 / $1,626.90 (-$285.70)

Best Bets: 51 - 88/ $187.60 (+11.60)

Spot Plays: 16 - 88/ $94.10 (-$81.90)

Best Bet: BETTORHOLDONTIGHT (2ND)

Spot Play: SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 5,6,8,9,10/2/1,5,6/1,6,7/3,4 = $18

Late Pick 5: 1,3,9/2,9/5,9/5,9/1,5,8 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 1,6,7/3,4/1,3,9/2,9 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 5,9/1,5,8/5,7/1,6,9 = $7.20

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO TROTTING COLTS AND GELDINGS **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

Anything likely goes in this field of inexperienced rookie trotters. I'll take a stab with (5) COME ON STANLEY, who trotted a good back 1/2 in his lone qualifier with the trainer in the bike and gets Jamieson tonight. (6) COPPEREAGLE, a $70K Harrisburg purchase, draws best and gets J Mac. He has as good a chance as any in here. (9) SLAYIN THEDAY AWAY is the most experienced in here and he has kicked sub-30 closing quarters in every start. He could do here if he gets a reasonable trip. (10) NORTHERNCHANCELLOR is in good form, and he fits well but a trotter winning from post 10 on this track is very rare. Demand a price.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger NW $16,750 LT

(2) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT was a sure winner last week until he jumped it off in midstretch, then he wasn't. He can make amends here. (5) WARRAWEE YANKEE suffered interference along the pylons at a critical point in the stretch in the same race and he should be in the mix tonight. (9) TALK RACY TO ME was the beneficiary when the choice broke and he moves outside now. I think the choice handles him this time if that rival gets a clean trip. (7) ARTSALIVE qualified great but when you consider his breaking issues, I'd demand a price if you like him.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO TROTTING COLTS AND GELDINGS

(6) STOMPER TOM trotted a sub-58 back 1/2 over an off track in Ottawa and a similar effort should put him right there on the wire with these; top call. (5) DR G was beaten by a colt in his qualifier that absolutely jogged in his debut here on Tuesday. He looks like an obvious threat. (1) ALEXANDER raced decently in his debut, and he is one of a few that are in with a shot here. (10) BEAR NECESSITIES was decent in the one start where he stayed flat; price look for the exotics.

Race 4: F&M that have started for a purse of $12K or less in 1 of L4 - Pick 4

(6) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA was decent in her comeback race now she moves from the worst post to the best one. I'll give her the nod to turn the tables on the mare that won that race, (1) BEYOND THE SEA, who is the obvious danger shooting for a threepeat. (7) CARSONS GOUDA closed well for 2nd in that same race and maybe she gets more aggressive now; using. (10) SUNSHINE SALLY closed a gap, but she gets stuck in post 10 now; small share predicted.

Race 5: 3YO colts and geldings Grassroots starters in 2023

(3) IKES DREAM adds Lasix coming off a nice win in Clinton and he has some potential leavers lined up on the outside of the gate. Assuming those contenders take back at the start in this non points race, Ike has a good shot to lead all the way tonight. (4) WINMEBAK is another adding Lasix that is interesting to me here and he is the other one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (10) SAUBLE ACE is obviously capable, but the 10-hole limits his chances this week. I’ll use him underneath. (9) FADE TO LIGHT is another that will likely race from the back and close for a share.

Race 6: F&M NW $8,500 L5 AE: NW $32,000 in 2023 - Pick 5

(3) SETTN A PRECEDENT was excellent last week almost fending off the big chalk. I'll stick with her tonight. (1) MS QUICK SAND is the obvious danger taking a big class drop tonight and she's hard to leave off multi-race tickets at this level. (9) SHES GOT IT ALL won and took a new life's mark last time she raced this low four starts back, and she did it from an outside post. She's not out of this. (4) BAD ROSSA was very good in defeat last week, but she steps up off that loss and faces some droppers. I'll use her underneath.

Race 7: Winners of 4 but not more than 6 or $80,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $60,000

(9) FROZEN HANOVER looked beat three strides from the wire last week but a combination of him digging in and his rival hanging right at the line got him a win. I'll call him to repeat here. (2) NO CONTROL is the classic case of an OSS Gold horse racing in a conditioned race he is obviously fast enough to win, but with a $100K Gold race coming up in a week. Again, he can win, but he may not get as aggressive a drive as you hope. I'd demand a price. (4) RON looked a sure winner last week then he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. He is hard to love on top at this point. (5) REDWOOD HANOVER hasn't been seen since the NA Cup and he is also likely pointing to next week’s Gold leg. He needs a clean line so he will likely get a conservative drive tonight.

Race 8: F&M NW $25,000 L5

(9) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN was unlucky to do all the work then get picked off by a rival that sat in for 7/8ths of a mile and got room at exactly the right time. I think she turns the tables here with Macdonald in the bike. (5) STYLE FOR A MILE is in great form and she has a good chance to race in the choice's pocket tonight; using. (8) SNOW SHARK tripped out and edged the choice. I don't see her getting the same trip here; using underneath. (4) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP likely sits and rallies for a share in this spot.

Race 9: FREE FOR ALL HANDICAP - Pick 4

(9) LINEDRIVE HANOVER is getting better every start and while he likely won't get a pocket trip this time, he may not need it; call to repeat. (5) LAWLESS SHADOW is on a roll, and his only shot here will probably be an all-out speed try, so Moore will likely try to seat his main rivals early. His best puts him right there with these and he could go a long way on the engine. (8) WARRAWEE VITAL can never be discounted but you have to wonder how many of these big miles he can step off in a row. I'll play to beat him this time. (4) SAULSBROOK VICTOR should be sharper again tonight and he is in the exotics mix.

Race 10: NW $16,000 L5 AE: NW8 LT or NW $50,000 in 2023

You could make a case for many of these, but I'll side with (1) EMMETTS BUDDY, who should get a swift pace to track as he looks to double up. (8) CENTURY HEINEKEN should be blasting on the class drop and he may prove tough to catch if he clears to the front tonight. (5) AMERICAN HISTORY couldn’t fend off the pocket sitter last week, but he remains a threat at this level. (4) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER raced his eyeballs out and took a new life’s mark on the drop and pop last week. He steps up a lot here but that was an impressive effort; price look.

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Race 11: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $46,500 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

Most of these will be in the Gold Leg next week, so ya pays yer money and takes yer chances no matter which way you go. I'll side with improving (7) WHATCHULOOKIN AT who may be able to mow them all down in the lane. (5) MACS DELIGHT comes off a win and he has a recency edge on many of these. He might lead all the way. (8) VERDUN is in great form, but he loses Roy tonight. Your call. (1) BETTERHAVEMYMONEY should be better in this second start back and I can see him landing in the exotics.

Race 12: NW $9,100 L5 AE: NW2 in 2023 or OPT CLM $45,000

(6) MASONS DELIGHT N goes for a hot barn, draws best, and brings a sizzling qualifying mile to this North American debut; top call. (9) ARTIES IDEAL should appreciate this class drop and he is capable vs. these; using. (1) SHADOW IN RED is sharp but has had some tough trips. He could upset if things fall his way in terms of pace and trip. (5) REAL WILLEY should be in the exotics mix on the class drop tonight. (3) ATLAS HANOVER looked good winning at Oak Grove, but this is much tougher; small share predicted.