Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/11/26

Top Pick Stats: 366/1157 (-$560.90)

Best Bets: 45/103 (-$29.50); Spot Plays: 24/107 (-$66.10)

Best Bet: CAPTAIN FEAR NOT (Race 6)

Spot Play: SEACLUSION N (Race 5)

Early Pick-5: 5/2,7/5,6,7/6,7/2,5 $4.80

Middle Pick-5: 5/3,4,8/1,3/7,8/1 $2.40

Late Pick-5: 1,3/7,8/1/9/1,4,6 $2.40

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $22,000 LIFETIME.

(5) CAPTAIN NATHAN probably has the most raw ability in this field and is likely a winner if he gets to the lead without much trouble. (4) I AM has been mired towards the back in each of his last two efforts and hasn’t been able to make his mid-race move stick. I think he goes forward and gets a better trip. (1) SHERLYN HANOVER held her own at this level three back but could be hampered from the rail and trying to settle for a piece.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,500 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $13,750 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.

I’ll look for (7) ONE LAST WISH to try and go down the road again. She was caught up in a wicked pace last week which is unlikely to be repeated. (2) TELLS ON A ROLL is logical given her sharp drop but I see her more as a grinding type. If she is strung out for a while, she could be a step short late. (9) PRETTY MISSY MAY held off Glenboro up the inside but now has to contend with the outside post. She’s handled it in the past, but you wonder when these miles will start to catch up with her.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,000 LAST 4 OR NW $22,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: 4 YR OLDS NW 2 RACES IN 2026. AE: N/A $2,120 P/S IN 2025-26.

(7) VERITY BLUE CHIP fits a similar profile to Tells On A Roll, but she is so much more menacing when moving outside. I think she can wear down the leaders if that winds up being her trip tonight. (5) MADAM X was stuck three wide early in her latest. Although she eventually cleared, I never thought she was sustaining that. I think a rebound effort is in the cards. (6) KISS N made a first over move into a softer second quarter and raced well to sustain it given the quick third panel. I think she comes through eventually with the right trip.

Race 4: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS STARTERS FOR NW $16,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: PROSPECT STARTERS.

(7) ANOTHER GREAT MASS looms as a front-end threat against horses who haven’t quite measured up at the Grassroots stage yet. (6) SILVER DETECTOR gets another shot at these types after last week’s early miscue spoiled his chances. (1) SENDI KA was an overlay last week and raced well. He has definitely taken a step forward since adding Lasix.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,500 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $15,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: NW $3,250 LAST 3.

I won’t quite give up on (5) SEACLUSION N because I know what she’s capable of with a forward trip. Looking for McClure to oblige. (2) JUSTINE RAY has shown versatility and speed in what is just her second stint at Mohawk. Roy gives her the nod. (1) TAMARA HANOVER may have found her ceiling at this level but that doesn’t really seem fair considering she was first over last week.

Race 6: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,825 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STS).

(5) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT gets to take more of my money or win at odds on. He fits at the upper levels but hasn’t been given the opportunities. (7) LOUS WORLD should provide an adequate challenge to the ML favorite if he is ready off the scratch. I expect him to be forwardly placed too. (6) SCAMMER held his own in another quick mile, continuing his sharp form. He should be passing horses late once again.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME.

(4) ONE BELLE was a sharp winner last week and is appearing to get stronger with every start this year. (8) DUSTY ROADS set a career best last week and is another who is finding more with each effort under his belt. (3) FIRST CLASS MASS can produce sharp final quarters when he has a live helmet to follow. I can see him getting a piece tonight.

Race 8: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS STARTERS FOR NW $15,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: PROSPECT STARTERS.

(1) WALTERS NIP gets a huge post switch after flying home to finish second. He’ll need to work for it, but he has the speed to beat these proven types. (3) SCORPION SEELSTER can be forgiven for last week’s trip around the track. I would expect him to get away mid-pack and try to kick late off a live helmet. I guess (7) PLANKTON HANOVER will be forwardly placed? He’s likely a non-factor if not, but I’m not sure he can sustain that after six weeks off.

Race 9: NW $24,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: POP-UP STARTERS.

(8) DALTON SHARD N got a nice setup in the Pop Up Final but went by those horses nicely and held off a charging closer. He has gotten better and better with each start and gets a fair try at these. (7) BRUE HANOVER has been off three weeks but is the clear class of this field. (2) DUBLIN DASHER is the male version of Tells On A Roll, but I think he has more punch. I think he can sit close and get a piece.

Race 10: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $20,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

I stared at this race for longer than I probably should have. (1) REMEMBER THE ALAMO was gapped in the final turn but still paced a good mile. The drop is sizable enough to likely give him the win. (3) CODENAME CIGAR BOX was vicious last week but we haven’t seen him repeat wins in quite a while. (2) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS should be more competitive at this level after two races where he had no chance from off the pace.

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Race 11: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. AE: OS 3 YO UN $27,500 IN 2026.

(9) NO WAITLIST makes his second start on Lasix and gets back in against overnight company. I think there’s every chance he goes down the road. (3) EXACTLY CORRECT dropped and popped in his latest and is picking up his game with each start. (1) JIMS FIRST DATE can take plenty of air and still find himself in the mix. A definite plus when there could be a lot of early speed.

Race 12: NW $2,700 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,000 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $14,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: NW $13,750 IN 2026 (MIN 5 STARTS).

(4) BLAZING CRUISER finally finds a spot which should be to his liking. Roy gave him the nod over many others. I think he finds his way to the winner’s circle. (1) ODDS ON VALHALLA hasn’t quite found his footing yet in Canada but a drop in class should help. He doesn’t blow you away visually, but he is consistent enough to give himself a big chance. (6) PAC MAN HANOVER has been facing similar company to Blazing Cruiser and a setup could see him pass many horses in the stretch.