Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 7/1

Top Pick Stats: 297 - 896 / $1,553.80 (-$238.20)

Best Bets: 49 - 82/ $174.70 (+$10.70)

Spot Plays: 15 - 83/ $88.70 (-$77.30)

Best Bet: GIAS SURREAL (5TH)

Spot Play: MATAI LOUIS (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 3,4,5/3,4,6/1,2/6,7,8/4,6 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 3,4,6,9/1,8/5,6/6/1,3,5,7 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 6,7,8/4,6/3,4,6,9/1,8 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 1,8/5,6/6/1,3,5,7 = $3.20

Race 1: 3YO colts and geldings Grassroots starters in 2023 AE: Ont. sired 3YO NW $28K LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) COOP A LOOP gets notable barn and driver changes here and that could produce sharp and immediate improvement; top call in the opener. (3) SHADOWS TERROR raced first up into the teeth of a 26 3/5 kicker and he gained some ground. He could do here with a better trip. (5) IKES DREAM was only 1/2-length short to a 1 to 5 shot in that same race and he is another to consider for early Pick 5 tickets. (8) THE MOMENT AROSE is capable of sneaking into the bottom of the exotics here; price look.

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Race 2: Winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $55,000 LT AE 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

(3) MATAI LOUIS N raced much better last week but he got picked off by a razor-sharp H P Momentum. Off that strong effort, he gets top billing here. (4) BROOKDALE MIKI raced great first up chasing a big chalk home. He is sharp and dangerous; using. (6) DRAGON ENERGY set some big fractions against the choice, and he could last longer in this short field where he is more likely to get a breather. (5) BETTER SUNSET is on a roll, but these are tougher; small share predicted.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 1: 3YO Colts and Geldings

(2) MOMENT IS HERE is the only one of these that raced in the NA Cup final, and he should get the job done vs. this small Gold field. (1) WRITE ME A ROSE has a lethal late kick on his best day and the short field should help him. He is the most likely one to knock off the choice. (6) MACS DELIGHT was beating elders down south and he goes for one of the top stakes barns tonight. He fits okay here, and he is worth a look for the exotics. (3) ACE OF ACES should be good for at least a small share here.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW $15,750 LT - Pick 4

(8) CANCUN KAI raced first up into a 27 1/5 kicker last time and that wasn't going to work. Roy drives now and I think he lets him roll early this time. (6) BROOKDALE JOHNNY followed two good colts home while they paced a fast back 1/2 last week. He is another that should be sent forward leaving the gate and his is in with a chance at a price. (7) WARRAWEE YANKEE's 26-flat kicker signals improvement but he is no lock in this spot. I wouldn't take a short price here. (10) TALK RACY TO ME paced a sub-26 kicker that was wind assisted last time but that was a good effort, and he is worth using underneath.

Race 5: F&M NW $25,000 L5

This is the "we don't have to face So Much More" conditioned race for the week. This looks like a perfect spot for (6) GIAS SURREAL to blast right to the front and go right down the road. (4) WESTERN WISH has a decent chance to land in the pocket here and that makes her worth a look at a price. (10) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN is obviously one of the best in here, but she has her work cut out starting from the widest post. I'll play to beat her. (8) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP will likely close late in the mile to land in the bottom of the exotics again.

Race 6: NW $22,000 L5 AE: NW $160,000 LT AE: 4YO - Pick 5

(6) BEYOND BETTER paced a 52 2/5 back 1/2 to get the jib done last week, moving up immediately with the driver switch to Macdonald. The leading driver sticks with him and so will I. (3) H P MOMENTUM is the other one in here that paced a sub-53 back 1/2 in a winning effort and he is too sharp to ignore. (4) POINTS NORTH did the heavy lifting, but he got picked off by the horse he covered up, (9) WOODMERE STEALDEAL. Either of these could win in race that will likely be decided by how fast they get down to the 1/2.

Race 7: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L3 - Pick 4

This is (1) ROCKME ROLLME's class and he will likely get covered up by speed merchant (8) LAWLESS SHADOW tonight then pounce late. The latter is capable of a big mile on the front end, and he is the other one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (2) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE fits well here. He can sit a trip and rally for a share. (3) MAGICAL ARTHUR, 2nd to the choice last time, should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 1: 3YO Colts and Geldings

(6) BETTER B BOLD paced a back 1/2 in 52 2/5 last week in preparation for this first Gold try. Asking him to beat NA Cup consolation and last year's top two-year-old (5) STOCKADE SEELSTER might be a tall order, but I think he can be up to it if he gets a reasonable pace to chase. The latter is the obvious one to beat and it's hard to leave him off late multi-race tickets. (2) NO CONTROL was better last week, and he returns in seven days now. He should get a good piece of this. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT is another that flew late that should be passing a couple of these tonight to take a share.

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Race 9: FREE FOR ALL

We get a clash of the titans here with Gold Cup 3rd (6) LINEDRIVE HANOVER taking on white-hot (7) WARRAWEE VITAL. Assuming Macdonald doesn't let the latter get away, I see the former winning tonight. (8) THE GREEK FREAK is one of the sharpest horses at this track, but he is doomed by the post draw here and the top two choices are just faster. He can rally for another slice, though. (5) POSEIDON SEELSTER will likely land in a good spot leaving the gate again and stick around for a share.

Race 10: NW $9,100 L5 AE: NW $1,150 L3 or OPT CLM $45,000

Class droppers should this race. I'll side with (5) CADILLAC BAYAMA who paced a nice back 1/2 last time and he gets the leading driver now. (1) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N jogged last time he raced this low, and he figures to be a threat tonight. (7) COMMANDING OFFICER is another obvious contender here getting post relief after just missing from post 10 at this level. (3) SHADOW IN RED has been racing tough every week and he will be in the mix again. (2) SINTRA should be good for a slice on the class drop.