Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 6/8

Top Pick Stats: 279 - 855 / $1559.60 (-$150.40)

Best Bets: 46 - 80 / $151.20 (-$8.80)

Spot Plays: 13 - 77 / $157.00 (+$3.00)

Best Bet: LEGENDARY HANOVER (5TH)

Spot Play: CODENAME CIGAR BOX (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,4,5,8,9/1/4,6,8/4,5,7/3 = $9

Late Pick 5: 1,2/3,9/3,8,9/8/3,5,9 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 4,5,7/3/1,2/3,9 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 3,8,9/8/3,5,9/1,6 = $3.60

Race 1: NW $23,500 L5 or $37,750 L10 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE drops to a likely spot, and he will likely get put on the engine here and play come catch me; top call. The two Moreau trainees are interesting for this opening leg of the Pick 5, and I’ll use (8) MR IBIZA N, who paced a 52 3/5 back 1/2 in a strong effort last week. (9) P L OZZY fired a 1:50 4/5 winning mile despite missing three weeks and although he faces tougher, he should be a threat right back. (5) AMERICAN HISTORY draws well enough that he should be good for a share in this spot. helped by the draw and I see him closing late for a share here.

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Race 2: ARMBRO FLIGHT: ELIMINATION FILLIES & MARES 3 YEAR OLDS & OLDER

(1) M MS DREAM showed her greatness chasing down a top quality mare that opened what looked like an insurmountable lead last week. She is strictly the one to beat here. (3) TIPSY MONI has been excellent for several months since she changed hands and part-owner Gingras will no doubt put her into play here; Exacta factor. (2) ADARE CASTLE is better than she showed in her first two starts of the year and she can wake up here and land in the exotics. (5) ROSE RUN YOLANDA is a very good Ohio-bred that should be in the exotics mix here.

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Race 3: NORTH AMERICA CUP XLI: ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD OPEN

This elimination is probably guaranteed to have fast early fractions with the presence of the #3 horse who only races one way. So I will look for a stalker to rally and I think (8) GEM QUALITY will get the setup at a square price. (4) CAPTAIN ALBANO has never missed the Exacta and that trend should continue here. (6) CAPTAINS QUARTERS has done nothing wrong since the Metro elimination and he is another in with a decent shot in a competitive NA Cup elim. (7) REMEMBER THE ALAMO had a good tightener for this and he is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics at a price.

Race 4: FAN HANOVER: ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) MY GIRL EJ, last year’s Breeders Crown winner, got one useful tightener in and she should be good to go now. I’ll give her top billing expecting a decent price. (5) GEOCENTRIC is 10 for 11 lifetime and she is another that got one race in before this Grand Circuit elimination. She is hard to leave out. (4) PASS LINE got cooked in a duel in hr recent Gold race and Roy gets replaced by Gingras here. She will likely be an overlay in this spot because she didn’t get a check in that race. She isn’t impossible in this spot. (6) REIGNING JADE has a huge late kick on her best day, and she could add some value to the exotics.

Race 5: NORTH AMERICA CUP XLI: ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD OPEN

(3) LEGENDARY HANOVER was conservatively driven last week, and he likely got exactly what he needed, pacing a 52 1/5 back 1/2. You can be sure he won’t be eight lengths off the lead here in an elimination where winning means you are guaranteed to draw a good post. (6) FUNTIME BAYAMA happily led through easy fractions and the choice was never catching him. His speed makes him a threat every week, but I think the choice turns the tables this week. (1) CAPTAIN LUKE comes in extremely sharp having fired sub-26 kickers in both of his starts, but I don’t love the rail post for him in this spot. I’ll use him underneath. (7) NEWSROOM paced a 1:50-flat mile to open the season and he should sit another trip racing close to the front and take a slice.

Race 6: ARMBRO FLIGHT: ELIMINATION FILLIES & MARES 3 YEAR OLDS & OLDER - Pick 5

(1) BOND is the best mare in here and she came out firing and won her first start last season, so I’m not worried about any rust; top call. (2) CALL ME GOO raced great in defeat last week, only a terrific mile by M MS Dream got her beat right on the line. She certainly would be no surprise here. (5) WARRAWEE XENIA sat and rallied for a share, and I see more of the same coming here. (6) REFINED might be the first leader in this race likely to get shuffled back when the two big mares make their moves towards the front; small share predicted.

Race 7: NORTH AMERICA CUP XLI: ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD OPEN

(3) NIJINSKY is the “now” horse locally and I can see him getting a pocket trip here and converting to take his fourth straight win as a sophomore. (9) TOTAL STRANGER, full-brother to the 2020 winner of this race, is clearly a different and much-improved colt at three and he will be the one to catch in this spot. (7) BETTER IS NICE comes in off a strong effort in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final and he should be one of the colts to make the final from this division. (2) ITS SATURDAY NIGHT closes well in every start, and he can pass some of these to land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: FAN HANOVER: ELIMINATION 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

(8) CAVIART BELLE got two tighteners in against aged mares and that should set her up perfectly. It’s go time and Gingras will put her into play early here; top call. (9) ITS A LOVE THING was 1 to 9 at the head of the lane last time with the setup she got, and she converted. She is obviously one of the best ones in here, but I’m not sure what kind of a trip she will get from post 9 with the big money waiting next week. She can win, but my gut tells me that she closes late, but a bit too late. I thought (3) ODDS ON PLATINUM raced tremendous first up last time when 2nd to It’s A Love Thing. This sharp filly has upset potential here. (7) SARASOTA HANOVER just paced a 1:48 1/5 winning mile so she is hard to completely dismiss.

Race 9: PREFERRED HANDICAP. PP #1- 7 DRAWN & PP #8 - 9 DRAWN

(8) TAURASI hasn’t lost at this class since last December. He has won 11 Mohawk Park Preferreds in a row. (9) ABUCKABETT HANOVER had one tightener now he adds Lasix, and he will be looking for a good performance leading to next Saturday’s Mohawk Gold Cup. He is obviously fast enough and classy enough to win despite drawing widest. (4) BLUE HUNT was never getting past Hellabalou racing first up in the Camluck Classic. He has a decent chance of getting a better trip here and he can land in the Tri. (5) POSEIDON SEELSTER worked out a nice trip and landed in the money in the Camluck Classic and I can see a similar trip for him here; using underneath.

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Race 10: NW $14,150 L5 AE: NW $100,000 LT

Good betting race here. (5) SEAFIRE paced a sub-53 back 1/2 in the Graduate and didn’t get a check. There seems to be a ton of speed to chase here, and I think Tetrick works out the winning trip. (3) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N was motoring late last time and it’s interesting to me that McNair chose him over class-dropping (9) HUNGRY MAN. Either of these Moreau trainees can win with the right trip. (4) UNCLE SHANK A will likely lead for as far as he can go again. I see him taking only a small share.

Race 11: NW $9,300 L5 or $14,250 L10 or NW7 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(1) CODENAME CIGAR BOX was a 1:50-flat winner last time he raced this low, and he should be able to rally from mid pack and get the job done here. (6) KOPI LUWAK looked good winning on the engine last week and he will likely be the one to catch here again; using. (7) ROCK N TWIST was no match for P L Ozzy last week, but then no one was. This gelding is in great form, and he should be in the exotics mix again tonight. (5) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE moves back up after dropping and popping and he likely finishes on the edges this time. (2) REIGN SUPREME fits better here and he should be passing horses late to take at least a check.