Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 6/29

Top Pick Stats: 333 - 999 / $1851.10 (-$146.90)

Best Bets: 52 - 94 / $170.60 (-$17.40)

Spot Plays: 18 - 91 / $189.20 (+$7.20)

Best Bet: EMMETTS BUDDY (6TH)

Spot Play: AU JUS HANOVER (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 8,9/1,6,7/2,7/1,2,9/3,4,7 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 7/2,6,10/3,4/2,5/3,4,8 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 1,2,9/3,4,7/7/2,6,10 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 2,6,10/3,4/2,5/3,4,8 = $7.20

Race 1: 2YO fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) PERFECTLY CHIC is the third foal from her dam that is by Betterthancheddar and both of her full siblings are winners. The more prominent one of those is local $466K earning mare Laura’s Love. This filly looked good in both qualifiers, and she gets the nod to kick off the early Pick 5. (8) WICKEDPACE sat pocketed on debut, following a leader that was crawling until the lane. That experience should pay dividends and she is an obvious player here. Debutante (4) BLOWIN DOE looks fast enough to compete for a share in this initial start; using underneath. (6) BARONESS, 4th in both starts, can land in the bottom of the exotics again.

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Race 2: F&M NW $8,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 A/E N/A $1,675 P/S in 2024

(1) CHEESY SMILE raced better last week but she couldn’t chase down classy Huntress. She could be sitting on a win now; top call. (7) POWDER PLAY strangely never got in contention as the 4 to 5 chalk in that same race, but she did pace a 26 1/5 kicker that shows she is sharp. I think she blasts this time, and she may lead all the way. (6) FLIGHT CREW N sat the pocket and finished only a neck behind the choice. She should be a speed threat in this spot. (4) TWIN B TIPSTER reversed her typical tactics last time and blasted for the lead and she stayed well for 2nd. She is always in the exotics mix, but I prefer to use her underneath here.

Race 3: 2YO fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT

(7) AU JUS HANOVER was airborne late in her qualifier on June 21st while under no urging from Macdonald. That teamster is at the Meadowlands, so Drury takes the lines, and this Tony Beaton pupil gets top billing on debut here. $23,000 London sale graduate (2) BARB LAHEY was Roy’s pick over the top choice perhaps because he drove her in both qualifiers. Her June 21st effort where she dropped five seconds and flew home stamps her as a major contender here on debut. (3) LADY PAPI was first up against Famous Fast Words and that wasn’t going to work. She should get a share vs. this group. (1) MACAPELO SEELSTER was much better in her second qualifier, and she can be part of the exotics in this initial start.

Race 4: F&M NW $14,000 L5 or $32,000 L8 AE: OPT CLM $70,000 AE: NW $100,000 LT - Pick 4

Good betting race here with several live options. (2) CAVIAR N CRACKERS draws inside which should facilitate better positioning early in the mile and that can be a difference maker for her; slight nod. (1) LADYCORONA powered home in 53 2/5 to finish a neck ahead of the choice. She is sharp and dangerous. (9) HUNTRESS returned to her winning ways, and she is capable of stepping up and repeating when she is on her game. Filion stuck with her over the #1 and #6 horses. She will be on my multi-race tickets. (6) SETTN A PRECEDENT steps up off a win but she draws best, and she can take a share here.

Race 5: PREFERRED 2

(7) SAULSBROOK VICTOR was over matched in the Gold Cup, but he was a good 2nd to Abuckabett Hanover at this level two starts back and he fits well vs. these. I’ll give him the nod over (4) WRITE ME A ROSE, who was an impressive winner at this level last time despite being parked for most of the mile. (3) DRAGONONTHEBEACH’s trip was just too tough last time. Starting from an inside post here, he could trip out and notch the upset. (1) POSEIDON SEELSTER is sharp, but I don’t love the rail post for him in this spot; using underneath.

Race 6: NW $14,000 L5 or NW $28,750 L10 AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000 - Pick 5

(7) EMMETTS BUDDY meets another overmatched field, and he gets a better post this time. It would be a shock if he got beat here. (2) THE GREEK FREAK raced well in defeat to the choice last week and he will likely complete the Exacta again in a race where it’s hard to find value. (6) KOPI LUWAK comes off a strong winning effort, but he steps up to a tough spot here; small share predicted. (1) JABBERWOCKY will likely get positioned near the front early, sit a trip and take a slice.

Race 7: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT - Pick 4

I don’t have much doubt that (10) SORCHA SEELSTER is the best filly in this race, but you have to weigh her price against what trip you think she will get from post 10 and what the tactics will be considering she has missed three weeks. Let price be your guide here. (6) THIS MAGIC MOMENT raced much better last week now she draws best, and I think she will be blasting this time and she could lead these all the way; using. (2) SHELTER IN PACE ships north and moves into Menary’s barn here. She is obviously fast enough, but she has been off three weeks. The tote board may provide some clues with this one. (1) ONE MORE BET raced better last week, and she can take another share off a following trip here.

Race 8: F&M NW $4,300 L5 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(3) WATCH HER DEWITT has been one of the sharpest racehorses around for several weeks and she is strictly the one to beat here. The choice’s stablemate (4) INDRA went down the road to take a new lifetime mark two starts back then she changed tactics and rode the choice’s cover to no avail. She could be dangerous if she gets sent to the front again tonight. (5) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN produced a nice late rally to get 3rd behind the choice last week. She should be passing rivals late again to land in the Tri. (6) MYSTIC WILD ROSE got a brutal trip last week. She draws best here, and she should be able to work out a decent trip and land in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 9: NW $14,000 L5 or NW $28,750 L10 AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000

Interesting race with two of the entrants coming off races where they paced out of their skin to lower their lifetime marks. Of those two, I prefer (2) STONE CARVER, who really powered to the wire to hold off a perfectly tripped out pocket sitter. (5) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE raced well in defeat last week and he could get a setup here; using. What to do with (3) LARRY KARR, who lowered a mark he took in 2019 by a full two seconds on 6/17 at the age of nine? I’m inclined to play to beat him thinking he left everything on the track that night pacing a sub-1:48 mile. (6) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER drops and gets back on a regular rotation. He should be in the exotics mix.

Race 10: NW $9,200 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: N/A $1,715 P/S in 2024 or NW $95,000 LT

(8) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N tried his guts out last week, but the winner was just too tough. I’ll stick with him. (3) WOODMERE ROLLNPOP returns from a successful jaunt to Grand River where he broke a track record two starts back. He fits well here in for a tag, and he will be on my late multi-race tickets. (4) HUNGRY MAN chose to stay in last week rather than go first up and he was in tight along the pylons in the lane. McNair sticks with him over the choice and he is another that is in with a good chance here. (6) MAGICAL ARTHUR comes off a fast win, but he steps back up and a small share is likely for him. (7) SAUBLE ACE is sent out by a productive barn, and he should be able to get at least a small share in this spot.