Woodbine Harness

Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 6/18

Garnet Barnsdale|Jun 16, 2022

Meet Stats: 285 - 925 / $1,557.20 (-$292.80)

Best Bets: 48 - 88 / $163.60 (-$12.40)

Spot Plays: 28 - 88 / $182.00 (+$6.00)

Best Bet: SINTRA (4TH)

Spot Play: PRETENDER (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,9/2,4,6/1,3,4,6/5/3,4 = $9.60

All Stakes Pick 5: 4,5,7/1,2,3,6/2,3,7/2/4,5 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,3,7/2/4,5/3,5,6/6,9 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 5/3,4/3,7,8/4,5,7 = $18

Late Pick 4: 2/4,5/3,5,6/6,9 = $12

Race 1: NW $3,650 L5 or $8,000 L10 AE: NW $1K L3 or starters for a purse of $9K or less L4 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) REAGAN BLUE CHIP raced okay vs. better here on Monday night but he was up against it trying to chase the leader down in a 26 3/5 final 1/4. He should be tough in here returning quickly and dropping. (2) JOELSYY HANOVER is the other dropper that figures to improve at this level and he will probably get an aggressive steer. He is the other one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (1) ALEX HAVING FUN, stablemate to the choice, was good here on Monday night, and he should be right there again. (7) PEDRO HANOVER, coming off two blowout wins vs. easier, likely sits and rallies for a share tonight.

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Race 2: FREE FOR ALL

(6) FORBIDDEN TRADE is rounding into top form, as seen by his 26-flat kicker in a winning effort on June 6th, and he should get a solid pace to chase here; call to repeat. (2) ITS ACADEMIC ships north in top form and he will likely be the one to catch here. He's won at this level here twice in the past and he is hard to leave off early Pick 5 tickets. (4) ONEY HALL’s best is good enough to beat these, and he gets Henry back here but there is some concern with him coming off a break in stride at the same spot on the track where he has jumped it off on eight separate occasions. (3) PEMBERTON is another high-quality racehorse that comes off a break in stride and he has a similar profile as Oney Hall. I'd demand a price here.

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Race 3: NW $29,000 L5 or $32,000 L10 AE: 4YO

(4) LAWLESS SHADOW hasn't looked very good chasing Bulldog Hanover in both starts this year, but he faces easier and gets Dunn in the bike tonight and a much better result should be coming; top call. (3) FORTIFY popped and stopped last time. He can be sharper in this second start over the track and I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (1) CADILLAC BAYAMA likely sits and rallies this time starting from the rail. He should grab a share. (6) EAST END tripped out to win last week and this is tougher. Small share predicted for him this time.

Race 4: NW $6,250 L5 or $14,200 L10 - Pick 4

(5) SINTRA returns to a 7-day cycle after missing five weeks between starts and he drops to a class where he is supposed to win by the length of the tote board. Look for a big effort here. (4) IDEAL PERCEPTION has the look of one that Macdonald will keep covered up until the last second then produce to close quickly for a share. He could add some value to this Exacta. (10) THE GREEK FREAK is the other one in here plunging in class but he draws worst. I'll try to beat him out of the Exacta. (3) RESPECT OUR FLAG was much better last week and he should be good for another small slice.

Race 5: MOHAWK GOLD CUP

(3) JIMMY FREIGHT paced perhaps his best mile of the year in defeat last week after starting from the worst post in the Battle of Lake Erie and he can get back on the winning track tonight starting from a good post. (4) ALLYWAG HANOVER had a useful comeback race and he is the obvious threat tonight as he should be nice and tight for his first stakes try of the year; using. (7) LINEDRIVE HANOVER got left out there which required him to pace an uncovered 53 1/5 middle 1/2. With an expected better trip tonight, he can be right there. (1) ENAVANT has had two tighteners and he is capable of improving sharply here and landing in the exotics at a price.

Race 6: NW $16,000 L5 or $29,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000

(7) LEGION SEELSTER motors home every week and I can see him getting a setup tonight; call to upset. (3) ARMOR SEELSTER takes a big drop here after trying the big boys in the Juravinski and he should be right there vs. these. (8) WIND BLOWN steps up off a career-best score and he is too sharp to ignore right now. (5) MAPPOS LION tried the front last time and it didn’t work out. I think he sits and rallies for a share tonight.

Race 7: GOODTIMES FINAL 3YO Colts and Geldings - All Stakes Pick 5

(7) PRETENDER was in a long first-over grind last week that wasn't the ideal trip. He moves off the tricky rail to the post with third highest % of trotting winners and trainer Takter excels at peaking her stock for finals; call to upset. (4) FAST AS THE WIND dominated in his elimination last week, beating the choice in the process and he is clearly the horse to beat off that strong performance and the one the week before when he was a good 2nd to older millionaire JL Cruze. (5) TWIN B ARCHIE tripped out to win his elimination, but he is classy and fast and clearly in with an excellent shot as the local hope in this race. (6) SOUTHWIND DOMINO flies home every race and he will probably be the value horse for Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta bets here. There are worse horses you could throw $2 to win on tonight.

Race 8: FAN HANOVER FINAL 3YO Fillies

(6) SEA SILK was very good last week considering the conservative drive. She could be a good value play from the best post tonight as it is expected that she will be more forwardly-placed early in the race. (3) TREACHEROUS DRAGON is the obvious one to beat bringing an unbeaten 2022 record into the race and a solid elimination win last week. (2) PROHIBITION LEGAL got a good trip last week and she finished gamely. She should be in the exotics mix again. (1) WICKEDLY INNOCENT raced well last week but was picked off by a rival who drafted behind her and pounced late. I don't love the rail post for her tonight and I'll use her underneath only.

Race 9: ARMBRO FLIGHT FINAL Fillies and Mares 3YO and Older - Late Pick 5

(2) NEXT LEVEL STUFF gets a good draw here and she can work out a trip at a square price. I'll give her a call to upset in a race with several live options. (3) BELLA BELLINI comes into this race as sharp as a tack having just beat the boys in New Jersey and she is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (7) ATLANTA is another obvious contender but she is 4 for 13 at this track, so I wouldn't take a short price tonight. (10) HEY LIVVY will be a big price in here. She is capable of landing in the exotics with a trip.

Race 10: ROSES ARE RED FINAL Fillies and Mares 3YO and Older - Pick 4

This race shapes up to be a battle between two elite mares. (2) TEST OF FAITH will get valuable position on her main rival here and that should be the deciding factor. (3) LYONS SENTINEL is of the highest quality and she can obviously win this race, but her typical style puts her at a disadvantage here because the choice will probably get the jump on her. (1) SO MUCH MORE was a determined 2nd to the choice last week and she should get a good chunk of this $315,000 purse. (8) KOBES GIGI picks up Gingras coming off a game loss in her elim. She is in the exotics mix.

Race 11: NORTH AMERICA CUP XXXIX 3 YEAR OLDS

(4) BEACH GLASS was said by his trainer to be sick this spring and he was short for his sophomore debut. He was workmanlike winning his elim last week now he is probably sitting on the biggest race of his life in this third start back. With Gingras taking the return drive, he gets the nod. (5) PEBBLE BEACH has drifted out in the lane in both Mohawk Park wins, although it wasn't as bad as last week and he seemed to accelerate once he got straightened out. He is the one to beat here. (3) RON is interesting to me as a price horse to use underneath coming off a solid closing effort in his elim. (7) NIGHT HAWK hasn't missed the Exacta this year and he was a solid 2nd to Pebble Beach last year. His potent gate speed puts him in the mix.

Race 12: NW $11,000 L5 or $23,000 L10 AE: NW 5 or $90,000

(6) MACHO PHIL was an easy winner in lifetime-best time last week and this spot looks no tougher; call to repeat. (5) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER gets needed post relief here and he is in with a chance at what should be a square price; using. (3) TWIN B HEART THROB, 2nd to the choice last week, should be in the exotics mix again tonight. (1) REAL WILLEY is an infrequent winner but he is always around the money and he should be part of the Super.

Race 13: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L4 - Mandatory Payout Jackpot Hi-5

I'm going to zig off the likely heavy favorite here and take (9) LETS GET PICKLED on top. He has had excuses in his past four starts. Prior to that, he won three of four starts at levels similar to this. He should be able to clear these and that gives him a good chance. (6) NO PLAN INTENDED is obvious shooting for his fourth straight win and seemingly able to get the job done from anywhere when he races this low. (7) YACHT SEELSTER is razor-sharp and he was only a head behind No Plan Intended here two starts back. I like that he is always in the flow and in a good striking spot at the 3/4 pole. (5) CENTURY FURY should get positioned near the front leaving the gate and hang around for a good share. (4) CHAMPAGNE PHIL is having a good year and he is always in the exotics mix it seems. Others to consider using underneath: Veterans (1) ROCKIN N TALKIN and (3) POINTOMYGRANSON who usually provide honest efforts.

20-Cent Ticket: 69/69/13457/13457/All = $64