Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 6/11

Meet Stats: 266 - 874 / $1,467.50 (-$280.50)

Best Bets: 45 - 83 / $147.50 (-$18.50)

Spot Plays: 26 - 83 / $175.60 (+$9.60)

Best Bet: TEST OF FAITH (6TH)

Spot Play: BEACH GLASS (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 5,6,9/4,5,7/6/4,5,6/6,9 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 1/1,3,5/6,8/1,2,9/3,4,8 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 4,5,6/6,9/1/1,3,5 = $18

Late Pick 4: 6,8/1,2,9/3,4,8/1,5,7 = $54

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW5 or $60,000 LT AE 4YO to be claimed for $40,000 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) MACHO PHIL faced some of the best sophomore pacing colts in the country in his last two starts now he picks up the leading driver and lands in an easier spot. He can get back on track tonight vs. these. (6) MOMAS SON BYRNE paced the fastest mile of his life last time despite having missed a month and having shipped from Alberta. He has upset potential here. (9) NO BETTER JOY took a new life's mark over a good track on Monday night and he has really come to life with McNair in the bike. This is tougher but he is in with a chance. (2) TWIN B HEART THROB is sharp and he should be good for another share in this spot.

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Race 2: FAN HANOVER ELIMINATION 3YO FILLIES

(5) PROHIBITION LEGAL was picked off late last week by a filly that was raging with pace, but one that she was expected to beat. Price obviously goes up now with her being defeated in a sires stake, but she should be sharper coming back in a week and this could be a rare instance where she offers value. (4) TREACHEROUS DRAGON has come back at three breathing fire and she is an obvious big threat tonight. (7) SEA SILK has only tasted defeat twice in 13 starts and that came in last year's Breeders Crown elim and final. She could get the trip here and she is another option for the early Pick 5. (6) BOUDOIR HANOVER fired a big effort in her sophomore debut but I prefer to use her underneath facing the three aforementioned fillies tonight.

Race 3: FAN HANOVER ELIMINATION 3YO FILLIES

(6) WICKEDLY INNOCENT is a different and much-improved filly this year and they way she beat older mares in two straight in New Jersey was impressive. She gets the nod to keep her win streak alive. Local filly (1) LOVE THAT SMILE raced gamely in OSS Gold company last week, but the first-over trip was too tough. I could see her tripping out and notching an upset here. (2) DON’T FENCE ME IN should be ready to offer her best effort in this third start off the shelf and she should take a share at a minimum. (5) QUEEN OF SUCCESS chased the same tough filly in both of her 2022 starts. She is in the mix here.

Race 4: NORTH AMERICA CUP ELIMINATION 3YO - Pick 4

(5) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS was unleashed in the second 1/4 to take control of the race last week and he paced a 26-flat 1/4 to make front which softened him up in the lane. I can see him sitting and coming with a big rally to notch an upset here. (4) PEBBLE BEACH got a soft trip on the front end here last week and he ran out in the lane. Can he win? Obviously. I won’t take a short price on him coming off that race. (6) NIGHT HAWK has been impressive so far this year, especially his most recent win grinding first-over in a sub-1:49 mile; another possibility in another good race. (2) MAD MAX HANOVER was narrowly defeated in that Night Hawk win and he hasn't missed the board this year. He is in the exotics mix.

Race 5: FREE FOR ALL

We get the first 10-horse Free For All of the year here with some of these in town to prep for next week's Mohawk Gold Cup. (6) ENAVANT closed in 52 3/5 in his 2022 debut last week and could do no better than 5th. I think he gets to chase a bigger opening 1/2 here with a full field racing for $65K and I'll call him to upset. (9) ALLYWAG HANOVER, a $1 million earner last year, is obviously one of the best in here, but it took him a few starts last year to reach his peak. I wouldn’t take a short price from out there in this first start back. (5) WHEELS ON FIRE never misses the board and he won't get bet again here. Include him in your Tri bets. (2) BULLDOG HANOVER dusted four-year-olds last week but these aged horses are much tougher; small share predicted.

Race 6: ROSES ARE RED ELIMINATION F&M 3YO and Older - Pick 5

Last year's Dan Patch Horse of the Year (1) TEST OF FAITH got a perfect tightener for this on 5/21, that defeat was one of only five in 28 career races. She stands out here and likely converts as the chalk. Nothing went right for local star (6) SO MUCH MORE in London. Put a line through that start. She figures to be one of the main players back on the big track where she has taken 37 of her 47 wins. (3) AMAZING DREAM N looks next best and she could get a good trip on the engine here; using underneath. (5) AWESOME HILL has been racing great for a few weeks and she should be in the exotics mix tonight.

Race 7: ROSES ARE RED ELIMINATION F&M 3YO and Older

(5) LYONS SENTINEL comes off a terrific tune-up win for this where she was airborne late in the mile. She should be tough in here. (3) FIRE START HANOVER also had a tightener and it came on this track where she was the only one to move on a winner that had a clear lead for the entire mile. She should be sharper tonight and she is in with a shot. (1) RACINE BELL has only missed the board four times in 36 races in the past two years. She is in the exotics mix. (8) GIAS SURREAL was a predictable wire-to-wire winner in London when she held post position advantage. She is no stranger to Mohawk Park, having taken eight wins here but she won't get the same trip she got in London; using underneath.

Race 8: NORTH AMERICA CUP ELIMINATION 3YO - Pick 4

(8) BEACH GLASS gets Gingras in the bike for the first time tonight and my gut tells me he is going to fire a big one making his second start back with that driver change. (6) I DID IT MYWAY beat older foes doing it the hard way racing first up at Harrah's Philadelphia and he took a new life's mark in the process. He looks like he is peaking perfectly; Exacta factor. (5) EARLY ACTION was one of the best two-year-olds last year and he won his debut so you know he can fire fresh. He is another possibility in a good betting race. (3) MAGICAL ARTHUR was given a perfect Henry steer to win his division of the Somebeachsomewhere and he should be in the exotics mix here.

Race 9: NW $24,000 L5 or $32,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $80,000

(1) FORTIFY equalled his 2021 win total in his first start and he seems to fit well with these; call to repeat. (2) AMERICAN HISTORY took a big drop and predictably converted and somehow paid $7 last week. He figures to be a threat right back but he will likely be heavier bet tonight. (9) COMMANDING OFFICER is in easier here and he will offer a square price starting from a wide post. He could win this with the right trip. Classy (3) EAST END will be in the mix tonight but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

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Race 10: Horses that have raced for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L5

(8) NO PLAN INTENDED overcame a tough trip to beat similar last week and he gets the call to repeat here. (4) OUTLAWGRABBINGEARS raced well when 3rd to the choice and I could see him upsetting here with the right trip. (3) ISLAND BEACH BOY got a tough trip as the chalk last time. He could do here at a much better price if he gets a trip. (7) POINTOMYGRANSON, the King of NW $3K last 5, faces tougher here and likely takes a small share this time.

Race 11: NW $13,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or starters for a purse of $15K or Less L4 AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(5) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N paced a 53-flat back 1/2 in defeat last week now he gets a much better post to work from. I think he trips out racing near the front and scores the upset. (7) SINTRA missed some time but he takes a big drop in reality here because he faced Linedrive Hanover in his most recent start. He's hard to toss in this spot, but the time missed is concerning. (1) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH exits one of the better races of the meet and he will contend here; using. (6) SECOND BRUISER has improving form and he should be part of this High-5. (8) BRAEVIEW BONDI N steps up and draws worse tonight. Small share predicted.