Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 5/6

Top Pick Stats: 194 - 567 / $1,067.20 (-$66.80)

Best Bets: 30 - 51 / $117.80 (+$15.80)

Spot Plays: 11 - 51 / $69.30 (-$32.70)

Best Bet: COLD CREEK QUESO (6TH)

Spot Play: SCRIBBLERS (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4/10/2,6,7/2,3,4/1,2,4,8 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 3/1,4,8/1,3,10/1,2/2,3,5,9 = $14/40

Early Pick 4: 2,3,4/1,2,4,8/3/1,4,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,2/2,3,5,9/1,3/1 = $3.20

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRED GRADUATE SERIES FINAL 4YO **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) ADARE CASTLE made two moves to win her third straight and she overcame a slow pace to chase down the leader. A series sweep looms here. (1) ESPLOSIONE was victimized by that slow pace and he kept closing. He has played giant killer before and wouldn’t be the worst one to add to the early Pick 5. (2) MISCHEVIOUS ROSE was much better last week, but she had a major positioning advantage on the choice and she couldn't seal the deal. I think she falls short again. (5) SAFE CONDUCT likely lands in the bottom of the Tri or Super in this spot.

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Race 2: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(10) BAR DOWN JIM lays over this group and you'd think he will be pointed straight to the front and lead all the way. (6) ALL ATTITUDE beat up on an overmatched field in his comeback race and he gets Macdonald in the bike here, but he will need to be faster to challenge the choice tonight. (4) BETTOR B SIRIUS was beaten by two good colts in his last two starts but he will have trouble handling the choice if that one brings his best; using underneath. (8) BOOM TOWN BOY had little chance racing first up in the rain chasing a leader that stole a minute middle 1/2. He can be an exotics factor here. .

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Race 3: PREFERRED 2

(6) COMMANDING OFFICER faces an easier Preferred 2 field tonight and the short field helps. He can vault past these late. (2) THE LONGEST YARD jogged with Macdonald in the bike two starts back and that teamster returns here. (7) WOODMERE STEALDEAL lacked room in early stretch last week, then closed willingly. He fits well with these and he is in with a decent shot. (5) LETS TIE ONE ON got cooked on the engine last time and he gets a much better post now. I think he sits and rallies for a slice.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRED GRADUATE SERIES FINAL 4YO Mares - Pick 4

(4) SPEAKER NANCY is sneaky to me here because she showed in the first leg that she can pace a 1:50 3/5 mile then she was passively driven and out of position in the next two legs. It's 'go' time now with $84K on the line and she gets the call to upset. (3) SILVER LABEL is the obvious one to beat, but I don't want 3 to 5 in a race where she should face sterner challenges. (2) INTOTHEMYSTICMOON has raced well in two straight, but Silver Label was better. She is in the exotics mix again. (6) RAPTORS WON should close for another small slice in this spot.

Race 5: NW $14,100 L5 or $21,500 L10 or NW1 in 2022-23 AE: NW $105,000 LT

(2) MAPPOS LION was first up in a tough race last week and I'm not sure this dash goes in 1:50; slight nod. (1) AMERICAN HISTORY was good last week falling just short to So Much More, and he is an obvious threat on the class drop. I just wonder if he will get overbet. (4) BACKSTREET GAMBLER exits the same race as the choice and that was an okay comeback effort. He is in with a shot here. Returnee (8) LAWLESS SHADOW is certainly fast enough to go with these on paper, but he was winless last year and this is one that I'd need a price on here.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRED GRADUATE SERIES FINAL 4YO - Pick 5

(3) COLD CREEK QUESO has looked terrific in both wins in this series and he is the clear one to beat here. (1) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B has been up against it recently due to trip and pace. I can see him getting a better pace scenario tonight and closing to complete the Exacta. (6) CAMARA MOMENT had a major pace advantage last week and McNair took advantage of it. I don't see him getting the same easy trip tonight. I'll try to beat him out of the Exacta. (4) KOLBY TWO STEP likely sits a trip and takes another small share here.

Race 7: 5YO and Younger NW $15,000 LT

(8) SCRIBBLERS was decent here in the fall and I like the way he finished his qualifier with the trainer in the bike; top call. (4) VERDUN was carefully driven in his sophomore debut with a clean line likely being the first objective. He was flying late and ran out of racetrack. He will be a major threat if he stays flat. (1) IKES DREAM didn't beat much but he looked good doing it and he should be in the exotics mix. (6) BIG DREAM FELLA raced decently last week, flashing speed and taking a shuffle. He is another that should be part of the exotics.

Race 8: Winners or 2 but not more than 4 or $47,500 LT or NW2 in 2023 AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

(1) MOMENT IS HERE looked good in his sophomore debut and he figures to get a setup for his late kick tonight; top call. (3) HP MOMENTUM got cooked by a rival that couldn’t find a hole and he won the pace battle but lost the war. He is capable vs. these and his price should be good; using. (10) MATAI LOUIS N continues to race well and he has shown he can overcome a wide draw. He could be the one to catch again. (6) BETTER SUNSET should work out another good trip racing near the front leaving from the best post tonight. He is hard to leave out of the Super.

Race 9: FREE FOR ALL - Pick 4

(2) SAULSBROOK VICTOR jogged on most of these two weeks ago then this class was not carded last week. He is the one to beat here. (1) SO MUCH MORE is as tough as they make ‘em and she will be a threat as usual but she will likely have to take the overland route again after getting outsprinted early. (3) WHEELS ON FIRE followed the choice and he couldn't get close after chasing slow splits. This race could be different if McNair tries to control it with this gelding. (5) NAUTICAL HANOVER beat most of these as the chalk two starts back then he took no money in the next start facing the same rivals and he showed little. Your guess is as good as mine with this one at this point. Perhaps the tote board will provide some clues.

Race 10: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(3) GANDOLF THE BLACK couldn't warm up No Control in the Spring series final, but who can? That was a solid effort and he looks best here. (8) GUNG HO raced well chasing a repeat winner. He should be the main threat here racing on or near the front. (2) BRUE HANOVER's comeback race was solid and he is another possibility in a race with several legitimate options. (9) NIGHTIME DANCER raced huge two starts back then tried No Control first up which was mission impossible. He is worth using at a price tonight.

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Race 11: 5YO and Younger claiming

The only question that needs to be answered in this race is: does one-dimensional speedball (1) THE LEGEND HANOVER stop or not? Last week he was straighter in the lane compared to two starts back when he drifted out about 10 lanes and tired. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. (3) DRAGON ENERGY is sure to race in the choice's pocket and he is the likely beneficiary if that rival stops in the lane; using. (5) MR BEAST was better in his second start back and he took 3rd behind the choice. He can share again. (6) JJ TOMMY is typically in the mix at this level and he should land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 12: NW $8,650 L5 AE: Starters for a purse of $13K or less L3 AE: OPT CLM $45,000 - Mandatory Payout Hi-5

I'm going to take a stand here and single returnee (1) SINTRA on top. He gets class relief and the leading driver who should find the winning trip starting from the inside. (2) REAL WILLEY figures to blast and look for a covered trip racing near the front and he can improve sharply on the class drop tonight. (3) ARMOR SEELSTER is another dropper that figures to try to leave in the top three and I see him getting a good share. (6) BEYOND BETTER is quirky, but he should close to be part of this High-5 if he stays flat this time. (12) NO PLAN INTENDED brings good form in from London and Jamieson, who drives him best, returns to the bike. He can get a decent trip and make it into the High-5.

Others to consider using underneath: (8) DR JOE, who will be passing horses late; (9) MAJOR HILL, who has found his best stride racing out of the Barrington barn; (10) ARTIES IDEAL, who is razor-sharp and will offer a big price from post 10.

My ticket: 1/2,3,6,8,12/2,3,6,8,12/2,3,6,8,9,10,12/2,3,6,8,9,10,12 = $80