Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 5/4

Top Pick Stats: 211 - 663 / $1039.80 (-$286.20)

Best Bets: 34 - 62 / $102.60 (-$21.40)

Spot Plays: 8 - 61 / $35.10 (-$87.90)

Best Bet: OSCEOLA (5TH)

Spot Play: SAULSBROOK IAN (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,5/7,8,10/1,2,5/4,5,7/3 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 1,4,5/7,8/2,3/4,7,9/3,6,8 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 4,5,7/3/1,4,5/7,8 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 4,7,9/3,6,8/3/2,3,8,9 = $7.20

Race 1: SBOA ELIMINATION: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLT AND GELDING PACE **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) STORM SHADOW came on strong at the end of his rookie campaign, taking the Gold Superfinal and finishing third in the Breeders Crown. Trainer Moore, who was voted into the Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame this year, seems to have him ready to fire; top call. (2) FUNTIME BAYAMA was getting beat at 1 to 9 in that Gold Superfinal, but he had a terrific rookie campaign and he should contend here although he didn’t take his maiden victory until his third start last year, so I wouldn’t take a short price. (6) DO BETTER looked good beating older rivals in his 2024 debut but he won’t get a lead in a 57 half here. I’ll use him underneath. (4) BEST NIGHT EVER closed nicely for 2nd in his first start back but these are much tougher; small share predicted.

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Race 2: 4YO and younger NW $15,000 LT

(7) BOLD SPIRIT got trapped inside too long in the lane last week. Once he got clearance, it was too late to catch the winner who had more momentum having angled off cover. A better trip gets this colt a win tonight. (8) PRICE CONTROL was good in the Spring Series and he picks up Borth tonight with Roy opting for the choice. He should be the main threat. (10) FAST LOUIE took a lot of action and he rallied from last to almost catch the choice. He would be interesting here at 10 to 1 or higher. (1) WATCHING SUNSET tripped out to beat easier in his season debut. I’ll use him underneath here.

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Race 3: SBOA ELIMINATION: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLT AND GELDING PACE

(5) CHAIN GANG produced a huge late kick to win his debut in a Gold event at two and history can repeat with him starting fresh as a sophomore here; top call. (2) ALWAYS A THRILL has shown a nose for the wire in 2024 and he could work out a winning trip here in this short field; using. (1) WIKIPEDIA looked good taking his sophomore debut and it seems obvious he is faster at three. He is another possibility in this competitive field. (4) FOUR BY FOUR got cooked trying to make front in the Spring Series Final. He should get an easier trip and land a share here.

Race 4: NW $15,500 L5 or $24,350 L10 AE: NW $24,350 L10 AE: NW $130,000 LT - Pick 4

(7) CONTROL HEAVEN races off the Smith claim and lands in a spot where his big early speed should play well. I’ll call him to repeat. (4) RON raced well last week but he was picked off by a classy closer that was just too strong. He has a decent chance here. (5) ROCKABILLY REBEL N raced better last time and he draws well and gets Macdonald tonight. He is another contender in with a shot in a good betting race. (1) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER should be able to close for another share here.

Race 5: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES TROT FINAL: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLDS

(3) OSCEOLA was kept covered up until late in the stretch last week and once he found room he soared for the win. I don’t see him getting a third conservative drive in a row in this $81,500 final; top call. (1) GHOSTLY CASPER is another that is sure to be more aggressive tonight. He should be the main threat to the choice. (6) HASTY BID tried the front last week, and it didn’t work. I think he races better off a helmet and he should be closing late here. (4) PASSARINO raced well in defeat to the choice and he can take another share here.

Race 6: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES PACE FINAL: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLD MARES - Pick 5

(1) TALK CURDY TO ME closed in 53 2/5 in a race where she surprisingly was never in contention a 1 to 5. She will surely be more aggressive here with $81K on the line; top call. (4) POWDER PLAY keeps getting overlooked and keeps winning and she likely won’t be favored tonight, either. She is a must-use for me. (5) MIST AMBER gets Roy tonight and I can see her getting driven more aggressively. She could win if the top two choices do battle. (3) IMA DOLL will likely sit a following trip and land a small share.

Race 7: Winners of 4 but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT

(7) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA made a powerful third 1/4 move on his way to lowering his lifetime mark last week and he gets the call to repeat off that strong performance. (8) REDWOOD HANOVER, who faced the best sophomore pacing colts all year long in 2023, is in a good spot here for his four-year-old debut and he figures to be the main threat; using. (6) IM SPONGE WORTHY looked racy the whole mile last week and it was no surprise that he pounced when shown racetrack in the lane. He is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics at a price. (1) STORMALONG should sit a good trip here and land another share.

Race 8: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES PACE FINAL: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLDS

(3) WRITE ME A ROSE got picked off last week, but I’m okay with that because his price will be better and I still think he is the best horse in this race. (2) WHATCHULOOKIN AT tripped out and stole the win last week, but he produced a sub-26 1/4 to do it and he will likely be the one to fend off here. (6) NO CONTROL, 2nd in all three preliminary legs, is in the exotics mix again. (1) SAUBLE ACE will likely sit and close for a slice this time.

Race 9: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT AE: 4YO NW $100 L3 - Pick 4

It could be argued that (9) BETTHEBEACH YANKEE beat a better field last week than he faces tonight. He should bring another good price starting from a wide post tonight and I’ll stick with him. (7) LA SUN CONTROL is on a roll, and he produced some huge final quarters in his two London wins. He will likely be the one to fend off late here. (4) LAMBORGHINI LOU races tough every week and Mackenzie always has him in contention. He should be part of the exotics again tonight. (8) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER was ready for his return and a repeat of that Flamboro effort makes him a contender for at least a share.

Race 10: PREFERRED 2

(6) DUPREE HANOVER keeps racing well and he never gets bet. I’ll take a price stab with him tonight starting from the best post. (8) DRAGONONTHEBEACH ships north off a fast win and moves to Menary’s barn. He could go right down the road tonight. (3) SAULSBROOK VICTOR was no match for razor sharp Emmetts Buddy last week, but that was a good effort and he can get another good trip here; using. (1) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH figures to get a decent trip racing near the front and take a slice here.

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Race 11: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $52,000 LT AE: Ont. Sired 4YO NW 2 in 2023/24

(3) SAULSBROOK IAN paced a 53-flat back 1/2 in a very good seasonal debut and he will likely be driven more aggressively with that start under his belt; top call. (1) T H MCMURRY exits the same race and he had no chance of pacing past the leader after that rival enjoyed a 57-flat opening 1/2. He is another that can improve in this second start of the year; using. (4) LEAVE IT TO LEO had a good sophomore campaign, taking six wins from eight starts including some Grassroots wins. He is fast enough to go with these and the 25 4/5 kicker in his most recent qualifier signals readiness. He is another in with a chance. (9) CALL ME IT crushed then missed a month due to sickness. A small share is likely his ceiling tonight.

Race 12: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L3

(2) ROCKME ROLLME tipped his hand two starts back when he paced a sub-1:50 mile and he came right back to win in 1:50 3/5 in a driving rainstorm. He is at the top of his game right now and he gets the call to repeat. (3) BAYFIELD BEACH is in easier and he is another that should blast off the gate. He could land in the choice’s pocket and capitalize late; using. (9) MAGICAL ARTHUR was no secret on 4/22 despite coming in off two nondescript Flamboro efforts. He is another that is sharp now that merits a look for the late Pick 5. This is a good spot for (8) TORONTO who should get an honest pace to chase. He could get the job done with the right trip. (5) RESPECT OUR FLAG is another that should be passing some rivals late. He should be part of the exotics.