Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 4/27

Top Pick Stats: 198 - 620 / $971.80 (-$268.20)

Best Bets: 33 - 58 / $100.40 (-$15.60)

Spot Plays: 8 - 57 / $35.10 (-$79.90)

Best Bet: RIGHT MATCH (6TH)

Spot Play: WHY WOULDNT YA (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 6,8/3,8,9/3/1,3,7/1,3,5,6 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 8/1,6,7/1,2/2,7/2,5,6 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 1,3,7/1,3,5,6/8/1,6,7 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 2,7/2,5,6/2,3,4/4,8,10 = $10.80

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES TROT FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) KINNDER HOTBLOOD was a predictable winner getting J Mac in the bike for her second start back and she draws best now; call to repeat. (8) LEXUS ANGEL has won three of her last four, the only loss coming to a mare who then stepped up to beat better. She will likely be the one to catch here. (7) BILLIE JEAN QUEEN produced a good effort when 2nd to the choice last week and she should be in the mix again here racing close to the front. (4) ALL OUT MARILYN will likely show speed and stick around for a share again.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT

Interesting race here with some nice returnees kicking off their sophomore seasons facing some elders. (3) KAPTAIN KARLOS was good in defeat last week, nailed right on the wire and he will probably get overlooked by bettors focusing on some of the three-year-olds. I’ll call him to upset. (8) SAULSBROOK IAN was fast last year at three and there shouldn’t be any issues with intent in this first start of the year. He can win here. (9) DO BETTER won his first five starts last year, culminating with a victory in the Battle Of Waterloo. He could fire coming off the bench; using. (7) T H MCMURRY needed one start before showing his best last year and I’ll use him underneath expecting more of the same here.

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Race 3: O0NTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES TROT FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(3) CONVOY HALL has been dominant in his first five starts and I see no reason to believe that won’t continue tonight, but his price will be miniscule again. (1) WHEELZABLAZIN ruined a potential winning rally when he broke in the lane last week. He could provide some Exacta value here. (6) CAPTAIN WANIA continues to race well for Team Henry. He should get a good piece of the pie in this final. (5) THE CANAM BANKER is another that is in good form that will likely sit a trip racing near the front and land in the Tri or Super.

Race 4: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT AE: 4YO NW $1,525 L3 - Pick 4

(3) WHY WOULDNT YA had a good return race, closing well to take a share and I’ll stick with him here hoping that he gets a more aggressive steer tonight. (7) BEST NIGHT EVER is one of two Beaton returnees that were qualified by Macdonald and the leading driver chose this one over (1) WIKIPEDIA. There could be some multi-race ticket value here. The latter won his debut at two, closing like he was fired out of a slingshot in the final 1/16th. He looks primed for a good sophomore debut; using. (6) RICARDOSHILYSHALLY is in easier here and McNair sticks with him. He should work his way into the exotics here.

Race 5: Winners of 4 but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT

(5) ALL BETS ON TEX surprisingly dropped back to last from the best post last week and he finished with plenty of pace. He draws well again, and he can win here if he lays closer to the front and gets in a live flow; top call. (6) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA paced a 26 3/5 third 1/4 to reach the front but that move took its toll late. He is sharp and dangerous, and he will be right there if he gets a slightly easier trip. (1) STOP THE SHOOTIN moves into Menary’s barn for this five-year-old debut, and he gets Macdonald. He is fast enough to go with these, and he will likely be heard from. (3) STORMALONG raced better last week, and he is one of many in with a chance in a contentious field.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES PACE FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

(8) RIGHT MATCH has shown some grit in her two wins in this series and the widest post probably isn’t terrible for her; top call. (3) LIGHTNING LIZZIE dominated in her two wins then had a bout of sickness. I wonder if her missing some time because of that will be the deciding factor here. I won’t take a short price. (5) ALWAYS A CATCH’s good tactical speed can get her a nice trip here. She has upset potential and is worth a look for multi-race tickets. (7) LE BEC FIN seems likely to take a small share here and she could boost the Tri and/or Super payoffs.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES PACE FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

Trip was against (7) WARRAWEEFORLAURA last week now he moves inside a couple of posts, and he will surely be more aggressive in this final. He should offer a much better price than last week’s 3 to 5 and he gets the nod. (1) MAX PATRICK improved in every start, and he will offer another good price tonight. I could see him swooping past some battle-weary leaders in deep stretch; using. (6) JMR SPEAK AWAY was simply too far back last week. He is worth a look as a possible bomb winner for multi-race tickets. (2) FOUR BY FOUR is unbeaten but he missed a week (perhaps intentionally after winning the first leg) and he will come under assault leaving the gate. I’ll play to beat him tonight.

Race 8: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES PACE: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLDS 3rd Leg

(1) WRITE ME A ROSE has been terrific in this series and he is strictly the one to beat in this third leg. (2) NO CONTROL hasn’t been a match for the choice in his first two starts back. He is a fast gelding though, and I could see him making a race of it tonight. (5) SAUBLE ACE is interesting in that he makes his first start in the series here and he needs a good result. If you like him, you shouldn’t need to worry about intent. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT closed for 3rd behind the top two last week and more of the same is likely tonight.

Race 9: Horses that have started for a purse of $15K or less in 1 of L3 - Pick 4

(2) LETS TIE ONE ON qualified for this condition by dropping and crushing last week and he gets the call to repeat off that sharp effort. (7) HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST is sharp and has been racing aggressively and he figures to be a threat here starting from a slightly better post this week. (9) ARMOR SEELSTER beat a decent field last week, but I’ll use him underneath starting from the widest post tonight. (6) RESPECT OUR FLAG, stablemate to the choice, should be closing late and he is a good one to use on the bottom.

Race 10: PREFERRED 2

(5) EMMETTS BUDDY returned to the racing wars razor sharp, and this looks like his race to lose with none of them having to face killer Taurasi tonight. (6) COMMAND made front then was swarmed in a race full of action last week. I can see him getting an easier trip here and he is the logical alternative to the choice. (2) DUPREE HANOVER is right there every week it seems, and he never gets bet. This is another spot where he is unlikely to take a lot of action; price look. (7) SAULSBROOK VICTOR should be good for at least a share on the class drop.

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Race 11: NW $9,550 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(4) MR IBIZA N was airborne in deep stretch last week, but it was too late, the winner was long gone. Starting from a better post tonight he can lay closer to the front and get the job done. (3) SWEET DEISEL has been untouchable for weeks, but he gets class tested here racing off the Herb Holland claim. If you are sticking with him, you at least know he will get put into the race early. (2) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER was right there vs. similar two starts back and he is another in with a shot here. (1) CODE CRACKER will likely sit a trip racing near the front and take a small share.

Race 12: NW $17,000 L5 or $29,000 L8

(10) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE drops and while this is no easy task starting from post 10, his price should justify the risk. (4) COLD CREEK QUESO likely needed his last start after missing several weeks. He is worth a price look on the class drop getting back on a 7-day cycle here. (8) AMERICAN HISTORY raced better last week, and he fits well here. He could do if he is close enough at the 3/4 pole. (7) REACTOR NOW A comes off a nice win, but these are tougher, and I prefer to use him underneath. (5) RON was favored last time he raced this low. He could better this placing if he gets a good trip.

My ticket for the Mandatory payout High-5: 10/4578/4578/245678/ALL = $67.20