Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 4/2

Meet Stats: 142 - 463 / $761.90 (-$164.10)
Best Bets: 24 - 43 / $71.30 (-$14.70)
Spot Plays: 16 - 43 / $105.10 (+$19.10)
Best Bet: GOODGOLLYMISSMOLLY (2ND)
Spot Play: J J PATRICK (8TH)
Early Pick 5: 3,5,7,8,9/9/6,7/2,5,8/1,7 = $12
Late Pick 5: 4,9/2,5,8/2,4/4,9/3,5,6,7 = $19.20
Early Pick 4: 2,5,8/1,7/4,9/2,5,8 = $36
Late Pick 4: 2,4/4,9/3,5,6,7/1,6,8 = $48
Race 1: Popup Starters NW $35,000 in 2021/22 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**
This race has the look of one that will fall apart late and go to a closer. I'll swing for the fences with (9) GOOD AND SWEET, who has been live at the end of his recent miles. (3) RIVER DALI was used hard and only and only picked off late when his stablemate won last week. He is sharp and dangerous. (8) DAY DELIGHT got a brutal trip in the 12-horse field last week and he was still there at the 3/4 pole. He has upset potential tonight. (5) PRIVELEGE has won 6 of 12 starts since being claimed by Miller and he is razor-sharp right now. He is another worth a look in a wide-open dash.
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Race 2: NW3 (F&M6) or $44,000 (F&M $50,000) LT
(9) GOODGOLLYMISSMOLLY has hit her best stride in her past two starts and if she can trot another 1:55 mile here, her rivals will be racing for 2nd. (6) DEALIN WITH DEWEY has been racing better and he never misses the board it seems. He should be an Exacta factor here. (2) MAGIC WANDA tripped out last week, but she still needed to find a sub-28 kicker to get the job done and she converted. She is in the exotics mix here. (10) ASTRE DUHARAS has a knack for finishing 4th. Consider him for the bottom of the Super at a price.
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Race 3: CLM HDCP $22,000 to $30,000
(6) HERESTHATMANAGAIN made two moves in defeat last week now he gets McNair; top call. (7) QUAN BLUE CHIP is the one to beat racing off the Barrington claim and coming off a win over every starter in this race, but note the choice did shade him two starts back. These two will likely battle to the wire again tonight. (5) ROYAL RENEGADE split the top two last week and he should be part of the Tri again. (1) SEA LAIRD should pass a few of these late and finish on the edges.
Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW4 or $62,500 LT AE: 4YO to be Claimed for $40,000 - Pick 4
(2) DR JOE took action last week racing off the Cullen claim, but trip went against him. He was used hard from the outset to make front then overtaken immediately on the backstretch in a race that featured many lead changes. I can see him getting a much better trip tonight and he gets the nod. (5) PETER POOLE looked like a winner at the tote board but he was nailed by a rival that was given a perfect steer who slipped off the pylons full of pace and slid past him late. He remains a threat. (8) HIGH FLYIN JAMIE is one of two Auciello trainees that Macdonald won with last week and that driver lands here. A theepeat isn't out of the question. (3) BOLT POWER made two moves last week in a good effort. He can take another share here.
Race 5: NW $11,500 L5 or $23,000 L10 or NW $90,000 LT AE: NW $82,000 in 2021-22
(7) COMMANDING OFFICER seems obvious here on the big class drop here, but he has missed three weeks, so the question is: what price will you accept? (1) JIMMY CONNOR B is certainly fast enough to go with these and while I don't love the rail post for him, he could do here in this four-year-old debut if he gets put into the race early enough. (6) CENTURY FURY should improve on the class drop and land in the Tri or Super tonight. (10) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER is sharp enough to take a share, even starting from out there.
Race 6: NW $3,000 L5 or $8,000 L10 - Pick 5
(9) ELIOTHROPE F looked like a winner when they turned for home then he drifted several lanes off the pylons while tiring. Keep an eye out for an equipment change in addition to the Lasix that he is getting tonight. (4) VICTOR INVICTUS has produced 28-flat kickers in both of his last two starts and he can be a late threat here; using. (2) SIZZLEN HOT HERBIE comes off a nice win in London for owner/trainer/driver Day but these are tougher; small share predicted. (10) HOLDIN ACES has been closing well and he is worth a look at a price for the bottom of the exotics.
Race 7: NW $24,000 L5 or $32,000 L10 or $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $65,000
Tough race here. (8) POINTS NORTH usually gets driven aggressively when he class drops and I'll give him a slight nod here. (2) DONTPOKETHEDRAGON is another dropper that should get more aggressive in this spot and he should produce a better effort; using. (5) BEYOND BETTER is obviously capable at this level, but his recent gait issues are a concern. I'd need a price here. (6) STONEBRIDGE REX is always dangerous with his potent gate speed but he seems best used underneath here.
Race 8: NW3 or $37,000 LT AE: 4YO to be Claimed for $25,000 - Pick 4
(4) J J PATRICK took a new lifetime best mark in his debut for Moreau last week and he looked terrific in doing so; call to repeat. (2) CENTURY INVICTUS, stepping up off an impressive NW2 victory, should be the main danger; using. (1) MAYHEM LIKE ME is capable of better than he showed last week. He should be in the exotics mix tonight. (8) THATS A BEACH comes off a nice effort when facing easier in London and he picks up teamster Henry here; price look.
Race 9: Horses Who Have Started for a Purse of $12,000 or Less in 1 of Last 4 Starts
(9) SUNDOWN KID jogged vs. similar last week here as a big chalk, using a big third 1/4 to repel a challenger. Off that effort he gets the call to repeat. (4) LETS GET PICKLED comes back quick off a nice win in London the other night and he gets McNair here. He can be a threat. (2) BRAVE WORLD was decent in his 2022 debut and he should contend for a slice racing close to the front again. (7) NOSPORTPUNINTENDED comes off a sharp Flamboro win and he gets Jamieson. I see him closing for a share tonight.
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Race 10: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,100 L10
(5) JULERICA probably didn't need a perfect trip to win last time, but when his rivals battled each other into submission in the opening 3/4 of a mile, it was obvious that he would roll by late; call to repeat. (7) MAJOR CUSTARD should improve tonight on the class drop. He is another that I'll use on late multi-race tickets. (3) LANCASTER BOMBER raced tough on the rim when beaten by the choice and he should be in the mix again tonight. (6) GRAND POOBAH is another sharp horse that figures for the exotics.
Race 11: NW $8,000 L5 or $19,800 L10
(8) NO PLAN INTENDED gets needed class relief here. A drop-and-pop is likely. (6) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N was used very hard early in the mile last week and he hung in there well, considering. He gets a much better post here which should lead to an easier trip and he is the other one that I'll use on late multi-race tickets. (1) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR N was beat less than two lengths at this level last week. He seems like one that will contend for a share. (4) GOING FAST was hemmed in until midstretch last week and he finished with some pace once free. He should be part of the exotics tonight. (5) FARMERS TAN took the hopples in 2 1/2 inches last week and it paid off in his first start for Auciello. These are tougher, however, and I'll use him underneath.

