Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 4/16

Meet Stats: 167 - 545 / $981.00 (-$109.00)

Best Bets: 30 - 51 / $100.40 (-$1.60)

Spot Plays: 18 - 51 / $116.90 (+$14.90)

Best Bet: YACHT SEELSTER (1ST)

Spot Play: BOLT POWER (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 3/2,4,5/1,2,4/1,5,8/3,6 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 3,4,5/2,7/1,3,4/6/2,4,6 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 1,5,8/3,6/3,4,5/2,7 = $36

Late Pick 4: 2,7/1,3,4/6/2,4,6 = $18

Race 1: Horses who have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L4 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) YACHT SEELSTER got a brutal parked-out trip last week and he just kept closing. Facing easier here, I can see him going right down the road tonight; top call and Pick 5 single. (8) IDEAL JET comes off a nice win against a decent field at Flamboro Downs and he is another that should be blasting early. He can be an Exacta factor vs. these. (6) HES GOT SWAGGER is another that is in easier and he should improve enough to land in the Tri or Super. (1) CROSSCUT gets post relief tonight and he can pass a few of these late to take a share.

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Race 2: 5YO and Younger NW4 or $68,000 LT AE: 4YO to be claimed for $40,000

(4) BOLT POWER gets a Macdonald upgrade in the bike tonight and that can be the factor that tips the scales in his favor; top call. (2) ITS IN THE STARS was rolling past the leaders while the choice was seeking room in the lane last week and he is the one to beat; using. (5) P L OCTAVIUS missed two months but it didn't matter. He looked good muscling past the leaders late and he is in the exotics mix here. (1) SPORTS REPORT should be good for a small share if he can stay flat this week.

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Race 3: 5YO and Younger NW6 or $102,000 LT

(1) JIMMY CONNOR B got over bet in his return race then got a rough first-over trip racing against a couple of tough ones. He can improve here and I'll give him the nod. (4) MAPPOS LION, victorious in 15 of his last 22 starts, knows where the winners circle is and he should offer a good price here coming off a rest; using. (2) NO FREE LUNCH has strung together several good starts in a row and Macdonald will likely trip him out racing close to the front tonight; using. (3) CENTURY HEINEKEN loses McNair to the choice tonight but he should be an exotics factor if he stays flat tonight.

Race 4: Popup Starters NW $35,000 in 2021/22 - Pick 4

This race has the potential to fall apart late and I can see (8) REAGAN BLUE CHIP rolling past late on the barn change to Moreau. (5) RIVER DALI adds Lasix and gets Macdonald in the bike after getting a brutal parked out trip two weeks ago. He is another that can be coming on late; using. (1) DAY DELIGHT was dead game in victory last week and he is hard to leave out here. (3) HARRY G looked good beating easier last week. He is in the exotics mix tonight.

Race 5: NW $8,400 L5 or $19,500 L10

(3) EAST END drops and likely pops vs. this field. (6) DONTPOKETHEDRAGON hasn't shown much since shipping east from British Columbia but he is eligible to wake up here facing easier. (8) NO PLAN INTENDED couldn't convert twice when chalk and facing easier. I'll use him underneath here. (10) PATRIKTHEPIRANHA A is another that drops who can enter contention for a decent share.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $30,000 LT AE: 4YO to be claimed for $25,000 - Pick 5

(5) DYNOMITES PEAK got a needed start in last week and he did close some ground late. These early season conditioned races are obviously not the main objective for this gelding, but he should beat these if he is within striking range at the 1/8th pole. (4) SPORTS ADVISOR is another sophomore returning to the races and he looks sharp. He should be right there vs. these if the intent is there. (3) COOLSUNSHINE got used up early last time when favored. I could see him tripping out here with Macdonald taking over the lines; using. (9) DR JOE drops one level but from the widest post he will likely take a small share.

Race 7: NW $16,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 AE: NW1 in L6 - Pick 4

(7) STONEBRIDGE REX raced well last week but he was chasing a rival that was racing that much better while taking an eighth straight win. This gelding should be a big speed threat tonight. (2) COLD CREEK CABO is an obvious threat at this level and he is hard to hard to leave off late multi-race tickets. (6) REAL WILLEY is typically close at this level and I see him closing to land in the Tri or Super. (3) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N rarely missed the top 4. He is another good one to use on the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: NW $3,000 L5 or $11,300 L10

Tough race here. (1) CHIEFS BEACH had a useful spin over Flamboro Downs now he gets a driver switch to McNair in a spot where he could get a setup for his late kick; call to upset. (4) CENTURY FURY figures to get put into play by Drury on the class drop here and he will likely be the one to catch; using. (3) BIG BANG BOOM set some strong splits in the top class in London on Tuesday before tiring late. He has upset potential firing back quickly here. (2) ROCKME ROLLME will be the likely favorite dropping to the bottom condition level but he could get overbet and I’ll try to beat him.

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Race 9: PREFERRED HDCP

(6) JIMMY FREIGHT is sharp as a tack right now and he is the one to beat as he shoots for his fifth Preferred win in six starts. (1) SINTRA looks sharp for this return but you have to wonder where he will get away leaving from the rail. He might end up closing too late in a race that he may need. (5) WHEELS ON FIRE is right there every week and he is an obvious exotics player. (2) COMMANDING OFFICER is sharp and he should be part of the Tri or Super, passing some of these late.

Race 10: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of last 4

(6) SHADOW IN RED is 0 for 2022 but he is very sharp right now and probably sitting on that first win of the year; top call. (2) LETS GET PICKLED got brutalized two starts back but he left no doubt last week as McNair took a stranglehold of the race early. He is the one to fear. (4) CHAMPAGNE PHIL raced well vs. some tough ones last week and he is another contender that merits a close look for late multi-race tickets. (7) BRAVE WORLD is in good form and Macdonald sticks with him. He should be good for another share. (3) LANCASTER BOMBER should enter contention for a share racing at this level; using underneath.