Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 4/13

Top Pick Stats: 162 - 533 / $790.90 (-$271.30)

Best Bets: 27 - 50 / $84.10 (-$15.90)

Spot Plays: 8 - 49 / $35.10 (-$63.90)

Best Bet: WRITE ME A ROSE (2ND)

Spot Play: TARQUINUS HANOVER (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4,9/3/1,2,9/1,2,3,6/3,5 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 4,5/3,5,10/1,5/1,5,7/1,2,7 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/3,5/4,5/3,5,10 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 1,5/1,5,7/1,2,7/2,6 = $7.20

Race 1: NW $2,650 L3 AE: OPT CLM $20,000 AE: NW $5,000 in 2023/24 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(1) DONATOVER drops and gets Filion and this is a spot where he can notch his first 2024 win; top call. (4) SHES BEER LEAGUE won more than 20% of her starts last year and she fits well here and looks ready for this seasonal debut. She could add some value to the early Pick 5. (9) MAGNIFICENT SEVEN was close at this level the last two times he raced this low. Borth will likely put him into play here and he is another I with a chance. (10) ESQUIRE flashed big speed last week from a wide post, but he went too fast, too early. He is worth a look for the exotics at a price tonight.

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Race 2: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES PACE: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLDS 1st Leg

(3) WRITE ME A ROSE showed no rust last week despite missing close to three weeks and it could be scary if is even tighter now racing on a 7-day cycle. He will be a Pick 5 single for me. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT goes for Menary here after producing a fast mile in his 2024 debut. He looks like the main threat. (5) NO CONTROL showed some promise at three, but this is a tough spot for his 2024 debut. A slice is likely for him tonight. (1) WRY, stablemate to the choice, has raced well here several times in the past and he can sit a trip and land a share.

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Race 3: F&M NW $14,000 L5 AE: NW $115,000 LT

(2) GIAS SURREAL wasn’t far back racing against males in the New Holland Series final and she draws perfectly here to work out a good trip racing on or near the lead; top call. (9) WESTERN WISH should be blasting on the class drop and she is one of the best mares in here. She’s hard to leave off early Pick 5 tickets. (1) SETTN A PRECEDENT flashed early speed last week which can be a sign that she is sharp. Drawing the rail and getting J Mac back makes her worth a look for the Pick 5. (10) WILDCAT DELIGHT drops but she got no favors at the draw. I’ll use her underneath starting from the widest post.

Race 4: NW $18,250 L5 or $29,850 L10 - Pick 4

(6) UNCLE SHANK A fits well here, draws best and gets top billing in a spot where he is almost sure to get more aggressive earlier in the mile. (1) POINTS NORTH was up against it trying to close when the pace accelerated. I can see Drury getting more aggressive with him here; using. (2) MR IBIZA N was flying late last time, and he is another in with a shot although he seems to race better when the starts are closer together. (3) THE GREEK FREAK is another exiting the New Holland series that will be closing here and he isn’t out of this.

Race 5: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $18,250 L10 or NW 6 LT AE: NW $52,250 in 2023/24 AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(5) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP won last time she raced this low, and she should get an aggressive steer from Drury; top call. (3) GLENBORO continues to race well, and her potent gate speed puts her in the race every week. She can get another good trip here and she should be the main threat to the choice. (7) KELE KELE is another dropper that figures to be closer here, but I prefer to use her underneath the top two choices. (10) CANTGETUOUTAMYMIND gets the first time McNair angle which makes her worth a look. She would be rated higher if she drew better.

Race 6: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT - Pick 5

(4) LAMBORGHINI LOU got Macdonald in the bike last week and he jogged. He gets Mackenzie back now, but he did win twice with that driver at the controls in March. This sharp gelding gets the call to repeat. (5) ALWAYS A THRILL shows Grand Circuit lines at two and Macdonald lands here. It’s conceivable he could win this even if not fully cranked at the start of his sophomore season. (1) DONT FREAK OUT fits better in this NW2 class and he should be part of the exotics tonight. (2) UNISON has been firing home in 27 and change and he is another that should be good for a share in this spot.

Race 7: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $47,000 LT

If you look at (5) TARQUINUS HANOVER’s lines from 3/16 and 3/23 you see there could be a pattern that will repeat itself tonight. I’ll side with him expecting an aggressive steer with him starting from the middle of the gate. (3) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA made a sharp third 1/4 move last week to take control but that 27 1/5 quarter took its toll late and he got passed. He is a sharp contender here. (10) CALL ME IT crushed and took a new life’s mark at this level last week and he isn’t out of this despite drawing widest. (8) KAPTAIN KARLOS keeps finishing 2nd or 3rd. He is a good one to use underneath here.

Race 8: Winners of 4 but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT - Pick 4

(1) BETTOR B SIRIUS had the misfortune of coming up against a razor-sharp Write Me A Rose last week and he was a clear best of the rest. He can get back on the winning track here. (5) HUNGRY MAN was an easy winner last time he raced at this level, and he is the one to fear. (6) ALL BETS ON TEX gets major post relief tonight and he will likely lay much closer to the front this week and land a share. (8) JACK PANIC is in good form, but he missed a month. A small share is probably his ceiling here.

Race 9: PREFERRED 2

(1) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH was closest to currently unbeatable Taurasi last week and that makes him the top contender here with that rival not in this field. (5) AMERICAN HISTORY tried it first up in that race with predictable results. He has a much better chance here; using. (7) RON is another that raced first up, and he will likely sit and rally here; price look for the multis. (8) SERIOUSLY HANOVER was on a roll until he broke last week. He should contend for a share if he stays flat.

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Race 10: NW $5,500 L5 or $11,500 L10

This looks like a good spot for (2) THATLL BE TIGER who is due to get some better racing luck. I’ll take a price stab with him. (1) ROCKME ROLLME will no doubt get aggressive at this level, and he will likely be the one to catch when they turn for home; using. (7) BAYFIELD BEACH is another dropper that will likely get sent leaving the gate and he is capable at this level. He is another one to consider for late multi-race tickets. (5) TORONTO raced decently first up at this level last week and he should be in the exotics mix here.

Race 11: NW $8,850 L5

(2) CONTROL HEAVEN took all the action last week and he raced well, but one rival was a bit better. A similar effort can get the job done here. (6) HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST gets Macdonald stepping up off an upset win and he is sharp and dangerous in spite of the class rise. (1) BEYOND BETTER gets post relief here and I see him closing from midpack to take a share. (4) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N finished willingly between horses last week and he should be in the hunt for a share again. (10) LETS TIE ONE ON motored home last week but he draws worst now. From out there, a small slice is likely for him.