Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 4/1

Top Pick Stats: 145 - 428 / $811.30 (-$44.70)

Best Bets: 25 - 39 / $103.00 (+$25.00)

Spot Plays: 8 - 39 / $56.70 (-$21.30)

Best Bet: NULLI SECONDUS (3RD)

Spot Play: SPORTS SECTION (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,7,8/5/1/5,6,9,10/1,4,8,9 = $9.60

Middle Pick 5: 3,8/2,3,8,9/4,5,6/2,4,5/1,6 = $28.80

Late Pick 5: 1,6/1,6/3,4,7/5,8/3,4,7,10 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 5,6,9,10/8/3,8/2,3,8,9 = $6.40

Late Pick 4: 3,4,7/5,8/3,4,7,10/2,3 = $9.60

Race 1: NW $8,450 L5 or $95,000 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $13,000 or less L4 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

This looks like a good spot for class dropper (3) EMMETTS BUDDY to get back on track and I'll give him the nod here starting from a good post. (7) SPORTS FAN is another that figures to improve on the class drop and I expect him to be leaving hard in this spot; using. (8) CHEDDAR BAY is another dropper that should be in play here and Sorrie will likely blast with him. (6) JOE DIMAGGIO raced decently in his local debut, and he can be an exotics factor again.

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Race 2: FILLIES and MARES PREFERRED 2

(5) NEED TO BREATHE, 2nd to iron-tough So Much More last week, gets the nod by default with that rival not in here. (3) LOCK BRIDGE paced a big mile in defeat in that race, carving out some wicked fractions. I could see her finding an easier trip here and completing the Exacta. (1) INTOTHEMYSTICMOON will probably be forced to take the overland route this time and she should be part of the exotics. (2) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP is interesting here because she will sit back and let her rivals knock heads. She is possible in this spot.

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Race 3: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(1) NULLI SECONDUS was odds-on last Saturday in race 1 but the card never started due to high winds. This looks like an even easier spot, and he will be a Pick 5 single for me. (10) BAR DOWN JIM is obviously fast enough for these, but he may have too much to do leaving from post 10 in this 2023 debut. (5) DELIGHTFUL KISS is fast enough to contend here but he has missed three weeks. I'll try to beat him out of the Exacta. (9) PH JIM shoots for a threepeat but faces tougher and draws poorly. I'll use him underneath.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW $15,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) RED COIN has looked really good winning two straight and he gets the nod to notch a threepeat here. I thought (5) GANDOLF THE BLACK's 2023 debut was decent when first up, eventually finishing 3rd to the choice and he is worth a price look here. (9) TOUR CHAMPION is another shooting for a threepeat that is in the mix here. He has the gate speed to overcome this post. Debutant (10) LAZ is a $20,000 Land of Lincoln sale buy from the initial crop of Lazarus. His dam hasn't produced much, but he looks fast enough to contend at first asking despite drawing widest.

Race 5: NEW HOLLAND TROTTING SERIES FINAL

(8) SERMON was impressive last time, and he will be tough to beat here in this stakes series final if he finds another 27-flat kicker. (4) HP MAMA B seems perfectly prepped for a big try here. She figures to be the main threat. (9) LOCATELLI also looked good winning in leg 2, and he could be even sharper now making this third start back. He should be a threat despite drawing wide. (1) ITSTIMETOGOHOME has been good in this series, and he is worth using at a price here because he might win this never leaving the pylons if things fall right.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 - Pick 5

(8) JAYPORT LEXUS was conservatively driven on debut, and he finished willingly on the inside while lacking room. I'll take a shot with him to upset likely favorite $275,000 purchase (3) STEEL COWBOY, 1/2-brother to 2022 Little Brown Jug winner Byethemissal. He is the obvious threat on debut coming in off a strong qualifying effort. (6) CAPTAINS PICK returns from a break after having gait issues. He should be an exotics player here if he behaves. (1) IKES DREAM is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on debut going for trainer Menary.

Race 7: NEW HOLLAND PACING SERIES FINAL

(2) ARIO HANOVER was asked for nothing until the final 1/16th in leg 2 and he was flying late but ran out of racetrack. That easy trip should have him set up perfectly for this final and he will be involved earlier; call to upset. (8) NAUTICAL HANOVER paced an uncovered 26 4/5 third 1/4 last time then drew off for another win. He couldn't be any sharper and he is the one to beat. (9) CAMARA MOMENT isn’t dropping back to last with $70K on the line tonight, is he? If he can clear quickly, he could prove tough to catch. (3) MOMAS SON BYRNE will be closing in the final 1/16th as always and he could get a setup. He is another in with a shot in a good betting race.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(4) SPORTS SECTION got a race in at Flamboro for his new connections after a private purchase and it was a solid effort. He fits well here, and he gets the nod. (5) BETTER SUNSET got a perfect trip, and he had a clear shot at the choice, but he couldn't go by a well-meant winner that led throughout following a barn change. He should be a threat here. (6) TALK TO ME ARTIE took a shuffle then lacked room in the lane. He is probably capable of a better finish if he gets clear sailing; price look. (7) CATCHMEONTHEBEACH brings good form in from Flamboro, and he can be part of the exotics vs. these.

Race 9: NW $26,500 L5

(2) AMERICAN HISTORY will surely look to impose his will on the class drop here and he should be the one to catch and beat. Classy (4) WARRAWEE VITAL typically can beat better than these, but he took a few starts to find his best form last year so I wouldn't take a short price tonight. (5) ROLL WITH THE FLOW was close at this level two starts back and he is in the mix here. (6) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE tripped out to win at this level but this is a tougher field tonight and I'll use him underneath.

Race 10: F&M 5YO and Younger Claiming $35,000 - Pick 5

(6) COME ROLL WITH ME jogged at this level from the worst post now she draws best. Catch her to greet the cashier. (1) LITTLEBEARCAT is good at this level, but she is at a tactical disadvantage here. It's notable that Macdonald picked her over the choice, however. (10) PHENOM SEELSTER raced tough when 2nd to the choice but she draws worst now; small share predicted. (3) GIRL SCOUT COOKIE was live late, and she can close for another share here.

Race 11: NW $16,000 L5 or $30,500 L10

This is a big drop for (1) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER and he should be hard to beat here as the likely heavy chalk. (6) HESINCONTROL is the other dropper in here and he was 2nd beaten a length to the choice four starts back racing in a higher class than tonight’s. He can round out this Exacta. (2) REAL WILLEY always puts himself in position to get a share and he is in the exotics mix again. (3) BETTOR THAN SPRING will probably find a helmet to follow tonight, and he should be part of the exotics.

Race 12: F&M NW $16,100 L5 AE: NW7 or $115,000 LT or starters for a purse of $12K L2 - Pick 4

Good betting race here with several live options. (4) MS QUICK SAND was good in her first start of the year and even better last week where she fought gamely to take her initial 2023 win. She should get a good trip racing on or near the lead and she gets a slight nod. (7) AHOY paced a 54 4/5 middle 1/2 last time and she had nothing left for the drive last time. McNair sticks with her and he will likely look to find her a trip this time. She is worth using at a price. (3) BEACH MOMENT comes back from London sharp, and she is another that should race close to the front that could trip out in this spot; using. (8) SHANGAI SEELSTER is in good form, and she should close for another share here.

Race 13: NW $8,450 L5 or $95,000 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $13,000 or less L4

(5) P L OCTAVIUS looks like he is sitting on a win coming in of a strong effort in a tougher field. (8) LAST BEACH got Lasix and McNair and he dug in to win last time. He is a threat right back, likely racing on the engine again tonight. (1) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES should work out a good trip racing near the front and land in the Tri. (4) TWIN B POWERBALL looked good trouncing lesser foes, but this is tougher, and he is likely to take a slice here.

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Race 14: 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

Wide-open race here. I'll shoot for the upset with (4) JACK PANIC, who got room in deep stretch last time, but it was too late as the top two were long gone. (10) MAGICAL ARTHUR looks well prepped for this 2023 debut and J Mac chose him over Hunted House. He is hard to leave off the late Pick 4 in this field, even starting from out there. (3) HUNTED HOUSE needed six more feet of racetrack to nail the leader in a good effort where he finished ahead of the choice; using. (7) HP MOMENTUM should find some cover tonight and that gives him a chance at a price.

Race 15: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less 1 of L3

(2) LETS TIE ONE ON looked good winning his local debut and he can get another good stalking trip here; call to repeat. (3) FLYINGEVENBETTOR N couldn’t be any sharper and he should be right there again as he shoots for the threepeat. (6) ST LADS CASH is in excellent form, and he is in with a chance starting from the best post. (5) ROCKME ROLLME jogged last week but that was against easier. He likely takes a slice this time. (10) KING TRITON A, who was facing tougher in New York, drew best last week but the races were canceled due to high winds. He gets the worst post now and he has missed close to four weeks. I'll use him underneath.