Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 3/18

Top Pick Stats: 132 - 385 / $730.20 (-$39.80)

Best Bets: 23 - 35 / $90.40 (+$20.40)

Spot Plays: 6 - 35 / $40.10 (-$29.90)

Best Bet: LAST BEACH (10TH)

Spot Play: SPEAKER OF PEACE (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,4,6,7/1,4,7/2,5/1,6/1,7 = $24

Late Pick 5: 5,6/2,5,6/2,7,8/1,4,6/1,3 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 1,6/1,7/5,6/2,5,6 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 1,4,6/1,3/1,6/4,6,9 = $7.20

Race 1: 5YO and Younger claiming $35,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

Good betting race to kick off the early Pick 5. (6) JIMMYACHANCE tried a big move from the back last week, but pacing an uncovered 27-flat third 1/4 took the wind out of his sails late in the mile. He is one of several that could win here, and he should offer a square price. (7) JOE RICH drops and his strong late kick can play well here. I could see him swooping past late; using. (1) PROMISE ME A WIN will be dangerous if he can steal the same third 1/4 breather he got last week. (3) JJ TOMMY jogged in the snow racing off the claim and he is another contender in a race where it makes sense to go deep for Pick 5 coverage.

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Race 2: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(7) GENTLEONMYMIND passed horses in a sub-27 final 1/4 last week and he can beat these if Kelly puts him into play earlier in the mile. (1) COBRA CREEK finished with pace, but he lacked room for most of the stretch drive. He should be one of the main players in this field. (4) DELIGHTFUL KISS should be involved earlier in this mile. and he is another in with a chance. (3) WRY made a good late charge to take a share last week and he is in the exotics mix again.

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Race 3: FREE FOR ALL

(2) SAULSBROOK VICTOR and (5) SO MUCH MORE are the two sharpest racehorses at this level and this race will likely come down to which one gets the better trip again tonight. (3) WHEELS ON FIRE paced a big mile when narrowly beaten by the top two choices. He could prevail if he can steal a breather. (6) ROLL WITH THE FLOW is sharp and he can close for a slice here.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW $15,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) SPEAKER OF PEACE motored late when 2nd to a repeat winner and he didn't have clearance on the inside until they had already hit the wire. He gets the nod starting from the best post. (1) RED COIN raced great in defeat in his 2023 debut two starts back and it was no surprise to see him 1 to 5 on the board last week. He easily converted and he is an obvious threat right back. I thought (3) CAPTAIN Q raced well from the 10-hole last week. He is in the mix here returning to a 7-day cycle. (8) HEAD HONCHO can flash speed again and stick around for another share.

Race 5: NEW HOLLAND PACING SERIES Leg 2

(7) NAUTICAL HANOVER got a setup last week, and he knew what to do with it. I can see him getting a similar pace scenario here based on where some of his rivals drew; call to repeat. (1) THE LONGEST YARD was airborne late, but he couldn't get past a resilient (10) CAMARA MOMENT. They are both razor-sharp and contenders right back as is (9) ARIO HANOVER, who never got a breather last week and was nailed by the choice right on the line.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT - Pick 5

(6) HOLY JALAPENO raced terrific last week when beaten by a repeat winner. I'll give him a slight nod to take down likely favorite (5) SPORTY BOB who should be the one to catch again coming off a maiden win where he got a great front end trip. (4) BETTERTIMESAHEAD was four lengths behind the choice last week and he can take another share here. (7) HIGHWAY VAGABOND is sent out by a barn that has been running well lately. Give him a price look for the exotics.

Race 7: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(2) DOC HOUSTON did well to hang on for a slice after getting parked first up forever. Auciello will likely move him up in this first start off the claim and he gets the nod. (5) CALL ME IT closed well last week but the claimed winner was never getting caught. He rates highly in here. (6) BETTER SUNSET tripped out and surged late to win at a price now he draws better. He is in with a chance to repeat. (10) THE WILL TO PLAY is on a roll but the 10-hole can be the equalizer. I’d demand a price tonight..

Race 8: NW $16,000 L6 or NW6 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $65,000

(7) MOMAS SON BYRNE was in tough in his first start back and he finished fast and got nothing. In easier here, he should improve sharply; top call. (2) BAYFIELD BEACH is also in easier, and he should get aggressive early in this mile; using. (8) BETTOR THAN SPRING is another that should be better this week, dropping and returning quicker. It makes sense to price shop to separate these three contenders. (4) THE BOSS SAID should be good for another small share in this spot.

Race 9: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L3 - Pick 4

Prairie shippers (1) LETS TIE ONE ON and (6) JOE DIMAGIO find a good spot for their local debuts because of the condition of the race. They stack up well here coming out of the Fraser Open and I could see either winning. (4) WOODMERE FENN was on the eventual winner’s cover when he made an uncharacteristic break last week. I could see him bouncing back here. (2) FABRIZIO N should go better in this spot and he is another in with a shot in a competitive field.

Race 10: 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45K LT AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

(1) LAST BEACH gets both Lasix and McNair, and he could move up sharply now; top call. (3) TANGO SEELSTER was good last week but nailed right on the line by a tripped out winner. He figures to be the main threat. (2) SOUTHSIDE EDDY was buried last week after getting roughed up in his 2023 debut. He finished well and I think he will be more aggressive tonight. (4) HUNTED HOUSE couldn't go with a streaking winner late and he finished with broken equipment. He fits here and he should get a good share likely racing close to the front again.

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Race 11: NW $16,000 L6 or NW6 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $65,000

Good race here featuring some hot horses. I think (6) BACKSTREET GAMBLER is the classiest in here and that will be the difference. You can't take anything away from (1) SUN CHIP right now coming in off two sub-1:52 wins since being claimed. He should be the main threat. (8) CADILLAC BAYAMA drops, and he’ll get put into play, but this is no easy spot. I’ll use him underneath. (7) JJ XAVIER is another hot horse but thus is a much tougher spot for him. I'll use him underneath.

Race 12: NW $4,900 L5

(4) CODENAME CIGAR BOX was better last week now he gets to drop again. He should be tough in here. (6) ROCKME ROLLME is the obvious threat and probable chalk coming off a 3rd vs. better. These two may battle to the wire. (9) VANILLA MALTED is another dropper that figures but he draws worst. I'll use him underneath. (3) FLYING ART A is an interesting shipper that moves into the Auciello barn. He should be part of the exotics. (1) G A SPEED SAMMY doesn’t miss a check often. He can land in the High-5 here.