Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 3/13

Meet Stats: 35/117 - $180.60 (-$53.40)
Best Bets: 5/12 - $14.30 (-$9.70)
Spot Plays: 5/12 - $35.40 (+$11.40)
Best Bet: MILITARY SECRET (3RD)
Spot Play: HP BRUXELLES (8TH)
Early Pick 5: 1,4,8/6,7,8,9/6/1,5,9/4,10 = $14.40
Late Pick 5: 1,2,4/2,10/3,7,8/7,8/4,6,7 = $21.60
Early Pick 4: 1,5,9/4,10/1,2,4/2,10 = $36
Late Pick 4: 3,7,8/7,8/4,6,7/3,4,7 = $54

Race 1: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 **$100,000 GTD Pick 5**

(4) POINTOMYGRANSON raced tough last week from the 9-hole only to be picked off late by a horse that enjoyed a covered-up trip the whole mile. Stepping up one level should help his price and he gets the nod. (8) BUTTER BAY HANOVER was almost wiped out in mid stretch and despite encountering that trouble he somehow managed to nab third in what was an impressive showing. He is an obvious threat but I'm not sure I'd take a short price from post 8. (1) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES should be a factor on the class drop tonight. He's the third one that I'll use in this early Pick 5. (5) AINTNOBETTOR A also drops but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

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Race 2: NW $5,300 L5 or NW $10,700 L10

(9) WINGS OF SPEED was better in his second start back now he fits well here but he gets a tough second-tier post. I'll give him a slight nod. (7) SOMBRE has been first up in two straight races. Maybe Roy finds a helmet to follow tonight and they come on late for the upset? (6) VILLEFRANCHE AS gets both class and post relief and she should wake up in this spot; using. (8) MAJESTIC SUNRISE N is another who should improve in this spot and is in with an upset chance in a race with many options.

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Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $25,000 to $30,000

(6) MILTARY SECRET was lights out racing off the Auciello claim and he gets the call to repeat at what is likely to be a short price. (4) JULERICA took a while to shake the rust off last week but he did finish well and he should be an Exacta factor tonight. (5) RAYS KREDIT has to be considered racing off the Moreau claim but I prefer to use him on the bottom in this spot. (1) JEWELS DRAGON couldn't stay with the choice late in last week's mile. He could get a covered trip this time and take a share.

Race 4: NW $12,000 L5 or $22,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 - Pick 4

(5) TORRIN HANOVER is always tough at this level and he should get put into play early in the mile by Young; top call. (9) MONGOLIAN HERO N takes a multi-level class drop and you have to think that Roy will be floating out to get good position leaving the gate; using. (1) FOOT SOLDIER has a penchant for winning at a price and he could offer some value in this spot. (10) JKNR LIKETELL is sharp and he should be passing a few of these late to land in the Tri or Super.

Race 5: NW3 or $58,500 LT

(4) GOING FAST stayed game last week despite being first-over a long way and he was nailed only by the rival that he provided cover to. He gets top call tonight. (10) BETTER TAKE IT came back breathing fire and he is an obvious strong contender despite drawing the second-tier post. (5) MISSION BAY finished well without threatening the top three and I could see him upsetting here if he blasts then gets covered up to the lane. (8) NOTAWORD N couldn't repel a 1 to 5 chalk late in the mile last week. He can work his way into the exotics here.

Race 6: NW $8,500 (F&M $12,700) L5 or NW $17,000 L10 AE:OPT CLM $25,000 - Pick 5

(4) NOTHING BUT MUSCLE returns from New Jersey and lands in a race where there are no standouts. I'll side with him in a wide-open race. (1) DUNBAR HALL couldn't seal the deal despite having stolen a 29 3/5 third 1/4 breather. His class is obvious but it's hard to take a short price on hum here stepping up one level. (2) HOCKEY HANOVER gets post relief tonight and he could trip out racing near the front then pounce late; using. (7) STORMONT VENTNOR is worth a price look for the exotics on the class drop here.

Race 7: NW5 or $80,000 LT AE: NW1 on 2020-2021 AE: 4YO

(2) BEYOND BETTER has come back as sharp as a tack and he is well-situated to notch the threepeat here. (10) FAST N FIRST looks ready for this four-year-old debut and he has shown he is fast enough for these. He can be right there if he works out a decent trip from the 10-hole. (3) GRAND POOBAH has improving form and he should be a good price again tonight. Consider for the exotics. (9) MAJOR CUSTARD was a win machine out west last year but he is up against it here drawing widest, losing Lasix and facing some sharp rivals. I’ll use him on the bottom only.

Race 8: NW $8,500 (F&M $12,700) L5 or NW $17,000 L10 AE:OPT CLM $25,000 - Pick 4

(3) HP BRUXELLES drops into a spot where she projects to get a good trip racing on or near the lead tonight; top call. (8) DONATOVER fell one stride short last week and while he has the best recent form, post 8 does him no favors; using, but I wouldn't take a short win price. (7) NORTHERN ROYALE is going well currently and he isn't out of place here despite moving up in class. He is another option for late multi-race tickets. (5) GOLD EDITION should sit a good following trip racing near the front and he should be part of the Tri or Super.

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Race 9: F&M NW $26,000 L5 or NW $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLAIMING $60,000

(7) IVANA FLYBYE N couldn't be any better right now and she should be hard to beat here as she goes for a threepeat. (8) GIAS SURREAL is obviously one of the classiest mares in here but drawing outside the choice might make things tough for her in this 2021 debut; demand a price. (5) SLY ELEANOR N was an unlucky loser last week when a mare slid off the pylons late to nail her. She should be closing for a share here. (4) SWIFT ALLY always seems to be closing belatedly and she can come on late to take another slice here.

Race 10: PREFERRED

(7) SINTRA is the top dog in this class until he gets dethroned and even though he is making his first start of the year he should be tough tonight. (6) WHEELS ON FIRE is hot right now and you know where he is heading leaving the gate. He should be the main threat. (4) SO MUCH MORE brings a top effort every week and she could upset with the right trip. (5) ROCKME ROLLME is razor-sharp but this is a tough spot and I see him taking a small share.

Race 11: NW $5,000 L5 or NW $30,000 L10

(3) REGAL SON gets to drop a couple of classes here for his return to the races and he should be tough to beat at this level if he brings anything close to his A game. (7) CHAMPAGNE PHIL has three straight 8 holes at Flamboro Downs and post 7 here is a much better starting point. I look for him to wake up in this spot. (4) P L JACKSON is another class dropper that should race much better this week. I look for Cullen to send him for position leaving the gate and he I son my late multi-race tickets. (1) SIDDHARTHA can get a good trip here and he can sneak into the Super or High-5. (8) IDEAL JET made a rare break in his qualifier but recovered well. He can be part of the exotics if he gets put into paly early.