Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 3/11

Top Pick Stats: 111 - 339 / $555.80 (-$122.20)

Best Bets: 19 - 31 / $77.90 (+$15.90)

Spot Plays: 5 - 31 / $30.30 (-$31.70)

Best Bet: RED COIN (3RD)

Spot Play: SILK ROAD SMASH (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,7/5,6,7/7/6,9,10/4,5 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,5,6,7/5/3,7,8/1,4,5,6/5,9 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 6,9,10/4,5/3,5,6,7/5 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 1,4,5,6/5,9/3,8/5,6 = $6.40

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) TOUR CHAMPION gets the call to repeat after reversing his form and winning at a big price here on 2/24. (4) GENTLEONMYMIND passed horses late as the pace accelerated in his debut, which is a sign he has some talent. He would be no surprise here. (6) HOLY JALAPENO made a nice first-over move last week but he provided perfect cover for the winner. He is in the mix here again. (8) TEEN TATTLER will probably blast here and stick around for a share.

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Race 2: NEW HOLLAND PACING SERIES NW $150,000 in 2022

(5) ARIO HANOVER has been good in every start since being bought and shipping north and he fits this series well. I'll give him the nod over (6) WOODMERE STEALDEAL, who is always a tough rival and should give a good account of himself in this series. (7) NAUTICAL HANOVER flew late to take a share against hot Camara Moment last week in what should be a good prep for this series. He is another in with a shot here. (2) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER figures to get a good trip in this spot and land a share.

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Race 3: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(7) RED COIN raced great last week but he couldn't catch a winner that had too good of a trip on the lead and was sprinting late. This gelding will be a single for me tonight. (2) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT passed a couple of rivals late as the pace was accelerating in that same race and I can see him leaving quicker and adding some value to the Exacta here. (8) DELIGHTFUL KISS paced a big middle 1/2 last start, but he was overtaken by a rival that enjoyed an easier trip. He is obvious for the exotics here. (4) MANHATTAN ARTIST raced okay vs. a good colt in London on Monday. He is worth a look for use underneath tonight.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW $15,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) THE WILL TO PLAY draws best as he looks for the repeat and he should be tough coming off a win in fast time for this class. (9) SPEAKER OF PEACE had no issue with the 9-hole when breaking his maiden and he should be the main threat to the choice. (10) CAPTAIN Q is capable of much better than he showed last start when he had an adventurous trip and getting McNair should compensate for his wide draw. He is in with a shot at what should be a good price. (7) DELIGHTFUL FEELING was first up in a pace that accelerated quickly and that was mission impossible. He is in the exotics mix here.

Race 5: NW $14,000 L5 or NW $120,000 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $13,000 or less L3

(5) BACKSTREET GAMBLER is the clear top pick here returning to a 7-day cycle after finishing a close second to a hot horse last week despite having missed three weeks. (4) STONE CARVER showed speed then stayed in ang got shuffled. He can get a good trip racing close to the front tonight; Exacta factor. (7) DR JOE passed them all last week which isn't something you see every night, but he takes a multi-level class jimp here and will probably close late to land in the bottom of the exotics. (9) SAWYERS DESIRE is an interesting Ohio invader, but I wonder if he will need a race over the big track before showing his best.

Race 6: NEW HOLLAND PACING SERIES NW $150,000 in 2022 - Pick 5

(5) CAMARA MOMENT missed three weeks, but it didn't matter as he led all the way again. He continues to be one of the sharpest horses on the grounds and he is the one to catch and beat here. (6) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER may go off favored here based on his sub-1:50 wire job prepping for this series but if McNair imposes his will early with the choice, this gelding could get stung. He is an obvious threat, but he is also likely to be over bet; your call. If the top two get in an early tussle, J Mac and (7) COMMANDING OFFICER could vault past them both in the lane. He is a possibility here. (3) MOMAS SON BYRNE is another stout closer that is in with a chance in a good race.

Race 7: 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

(5) SOUTHSIDE EDDY got no breathers in his comeback race and after making multiple moves, he was empty at the 1/8th pole. He should be as tight as a drum now and he gets top billing here. (1) HUNTED HOUSE was also part of that contested pace and he suffered the same fate as the choice. He can get a better trip and result tonight. (8) SUN CHIP is clearly on the upswing, and he should be in the mix again. (4) JACK PANIC passes horses late every race recently. He should get a share here.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000

(7) J J XAVIER should get a better trip here after getting used up by the 3/4 pole last week and he seems to fit better in this spot; top call. (8) JIMMYACHANCE has a similar profile to the choice and I think he sits and rallies this time; using. (3) STOP THE SHOOTIN was first up in a fast mile which was a tough spot. He has a better chance here. (6) CORONAONTHEBEACH improved sharply and took a new life's mark racing off the claim but this is a much tougher spot; small share predicted.

Race 9: NW $26,500 L5 - Pick 4

(4) ROLL WITH THE FLOW had his win streak broken last week but that race was in the top class and he should be better vs. these; top call. Ohio shipper (6) BETTER THAN SPRING, a winner of close to 1/3 of his 2022-23 starts he seems to fit well for his local debut. He can be a threat. (1) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE had clear sailing in the lane last week and couldn't get to the leader. He picks up the leading driver now and that makes him dangerous. (5) POINTS NORTH was first up chasing fast fractions last week and that was a tough chore. He is typically a threat at this level.

Race 10: NW $4,900 L5

(9) SPRINGBRIDGE JIM couldn't be any sharper, coming in off a very fast Flamboro Downs win. He should be tough in here with J Mac in the bike. (5) GOING FAST was good last week, but the winner paced a tremendous mile, passing all nine of his rivals. He is in with a decent chance tonight. (3) HES SWIFT should enter exotics contention on the class drop; using underneath. (6) TORONTO is another dropper that should improve enough to land in the exotics.

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Race 11: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000

(3) SILK ROAD SMASH is likely sitting on a win after pacing a 53 1/5 back 1/2 in defeat last week. I see him laying closer and moving earlier this week. (8) TANGO SEELSTER would have won last week if he didn't get held up in the lane. He finished ahead of the choice in that race and he should be the main threat here. (4) WHAMMER JAMMER qualified well and he adds Lasix for this. He is worth a look for use underneath. (7) WORDS ESCAPE ME brings some sharp form in from the 'B' tracks and I can see him closing for a share tonight.

Race 12: NW $8,800 L5 AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(5) WOODMERE FENN made an eye-catching move in the lane to win last week and he is as sharp as a tack right now. He has a good shot at notching the fourpeat here. (6) CODENAME CIGAR BOX drops and returns to a 7-day cycle after he missed the entire month of February between his last two starts. He should be right there vs. these. (4) LEGION SEELSTER tried to bottom out the field in the third 1/4 last week and he got passed by the choice and another rival late. I think he sits and rallies now. (2) VANILLA MALTED exits an Ohio race where he chased wicked fractions and he stayed for a share. He can be part of the Super here. (1) POINTOMYGRANSON should get a check on the class drop tonight.