Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 2/15

Top Pick Stats: 14-74 / (-$75.90)

Best Bets: 2-7 / (-$6.80)

Spot Plays: 1-7 / (+6.00)

Best Bet: IVY PARK (Race 3)

Spot Play: BROOKDALE JOHNNY (Race 11)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,3/1,4,6,7,8/2/1/7,8 = $6

Late Pick 5: 3,4/1/6,7/1,3,4,5/7,8 = $6.40

Pick 6: 1/7,8/3,4/1/6,7/1,3,4,5 = $5.30

Race 1: NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $22,750) LIFETIME. *75,000 GTD PICK 5*

(2) VOLCANIC has started off his career a perfect 2-2 and has done it doing gate-to-wire both times. This appears to be a group he can reel off a third-consecutive victory in similar fashion, and I’ll give him the nod. (1) ABOVEMYPAYGRADE made a first over bid in his latest and opened up on his rivals before getting picked off right at the line. He draws well and can get a big piece in here once again. (3) MOOD CONTROL got towed into a victory in his latest and is always a rival who warrants respect late in the mile. (7) MATTS BANK left out for early positioning and hung around for a share. He can do the same here.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 5 OR NW $5,200 LAST 10 STARTS

(1) SERIOUSLY HANOVER will be making his first pari-mutuel start since October and is coming off a solid 2nd-place qualifying effort on 2/7. He was first up in that morning prep and continued to move forward. He fits nicely in this group and I’ll give him the nod off the shelf here. (6) THE LIGHT SPEED has been taking on tougher company over his last few tries and drew a 10-hole in his latest since shipping in from Rideau. He does his best work when he’s on the engine, and with the draw he gets to work with tonight, an aggressive approach could be what we see from him this evening. (8) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE takes a drop in class after not being much of a factor over his last several tries. He draws the furthest outside in this group of eight and prefers to do his work off the pace. (4) CODE CRACKER was aggressively handled in his latest, en route to an easy score. He draws well here yet again and we should expect him to be forwardly placed as well; using.

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Race 3: NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $29,000 (OS $33,850) LIFETIME. AE: ONTARIO SIRED 4 YEAR OLDS NW $7,200 IN 2025.

(2) IVY PARK has steadily improved over his last couple of starts and has paced the lane well in doing so. He hooks a class that is more to his liking and he looks like he’s sitting on a good effort this evening. (1) TOBINS CHESTER made an aggressive, first-over bid in tough weather conditions and cleared the pace setter, only to get picked off by a rival with a cleaner trip. It was a great effort, and he should be sitting on another good one here, too. (5) RJ RINGO is coming off a pair of 4th-place efforts but wasn’t in good spots in either of them turning for home. He draws better and should be able to work out a better trip from here, if he so chooses. (4) OVERTHINKING left out for early positioning, then ended up stuck behind the pocket-sitter and didn’t get a chance to shake loose until late. He showed pace when free and draws well enough to be aggressively handled yet again.

Race 4: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $9,800 LAST 10 STARTS.

(1) KOLBY TWO STEP was bet down heavily in a spot where he looked like he’d be a strong win candidate and put forth an uncharacteristic performance (in a race that consisted of a recall). He was scratched the week after and went a rather conservative trip in his most recent start. He picks up JMac at the controls, draws inside and should be sitting on a winning effort this evening. (2) NAZARE was a new purchase from Dave Menary and will be back in his barn for the first time since May 2024. He will come into this start having not raced in one month so we’ll slot him underneath this evening. (7) NIGHTIME DANCER took 3/1 support in his most recent try at this class two starts back and was a solid 3rd. He should be competitive against the company he keeps here this evening. (8) PREMIER FIRST STAR has hit the board in his last two tries and has done so at a price both times. You’ll be looking at a price here yet again and he should be someone to use at the bottom of your exotics.

Race 5: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME.

(7) GET A ROOM showed improvement in his most recent qualifier under confident handling to Brodie Le Cain (who just has 13 career qualifying drives). He will pick up the services of Doug McNair this evening and looks ready to go at first asking here; top call. (8) BETTORSEETHESHOW was a solid runner-up finisher in his career debut behind a dominant winner. He can take a step forward in start number two and is capable of a big piece here. (6) BEACHOFANERA was one we loved last week and things didn’t work out despite a favorable trip. He’s shown he’s capable of a better effort than that, but is one we’ll slot underneath this evening. (2) JIMMY HOOFFA was aggressively handled in his career debut and just got picked off at the wire. He draws inside and can be a bigger threat here this evening.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $59,000 (OS $68,500) LIFETIME.

(4) BEACH COWBOY was a distant 3rd to the one below but has been 3rd at this level over his last two tries. He draws better this evening and we might see a more aggressive approach because of it; top call. (3) LOOKINLIKEAMILLION has shown good late-speed over his last two tries and has earned himself a 1st and 2nd respectively in those starts. He draws inside and will be tough to fend off in the late stages of the mile. (5) ON TIME DELIVERY was conservatively handled after a break in his start prior. He was a strong 2nd in that effort and reunites with Doug McNair, who should look to be more aggressive with this draw. (2) JMR SPEAK AWAY was 4th at this level last time out and will likely be positioning well early; because of that, he can stick around for a good share here. (5) ON TIME DELIVERY was conservatively handled after a break in his start prior. He was a fast closing second and might b

Race 7: NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $28,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000.

(1) JACK PANIC drops a few classes from the Preferred into a much more manageable spot. He has just one, on-the-board finish in 5 starts this year but has put forth very respectable efforts vs. tougher company. He is Jonathan Drury’s choice over two others in this contest and he should find his way back to the winner’s circle against this group. (10) REDWOOD HANOVER was aggressively handled in a victory last time out and will take a step up in company and draws the far outside. He’s capable of a good effort but will have to find a little more to beat the one above. (4) FOX VALLEY LANDEN was locked in the pocket and shook loose late with plenty of pace two starts back. In his latest, he got away towards the back of the pack and wasn’t much of a factor. This 5YO gelding draws well tonight and should be summoned off the wings early, and can work out a very nice trip because of it. (6) HP LIS SHADOW didn’t fire whatsoever in his most recent effort but has hit the board in five starts prior (being no worse than 3rd in those tries). He draws well and should have every chance to hit the ticket.

Race 8: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS.

(6) BOOMING ECONOMY floated out for positioning and took a bit of a shuffle, before closing well late to be a strong 2nd. This will be his third start for new trainer Corey Giles and he will have Louis-Philippe Roy at the controls this evening, who picks up a very live drive this evening. (7) BATTERUP HANOVER got away towards the back of the pack with an outside draw in a tougher class. He showed very good wheels at the end of it and will likely be ready for a more aggressive approach this evening off that effort; contender. (3) NEEDABANKLOAN had no chance in his latest vs. a very dominant rival. He’s been racing very well as of late and is one that merits respect in this wide open affair. (8) ROCKABILLY REBEL N hasn’t been involved whatsoever over his last two tries but has the ability to hit the ticket in this spot.

Race 9: PREFERRED.

(1) POWERTRAIN was handled aggressively off the car in his latest and got picked off by a pair of rivals in a hard-fought, 3rd-place effort. He will reunite with JMac here, who guided him to a comfortable score two starts back; top call. (4) POSEIDON SEELSTER just got picked off at the wire in what was a very game effort. He is versatile and has options in regards to how he chooses to race. (3) WHATCHULOOKIN AT was an even 5th in his latest but showed a bit more life at the end of his mile, pacing home in sub-27. He draws well and can be a big threat if at his best. (5) ARSON was under a stranglehold for JMac in his most recent qualifier. This is likely a tough test at first-asking in his 4YO campaign but is one that could pull off an upset if the race falls apart.

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Race 10: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,500 LIFETIME.

(8) REGIL BUBB made a miscue off the gate in his latest start but recovered nicely to be a fast-closing 3rd. He was an easy winner two starts back and has shown the ability to get off the card with an outside draw. Giving him the nod for a bounce-back here. (7) BETTERDEALMEIN was 2nd in the Snowshoe Final to a very sharp rival. He hasn’t displayed early footing off the wings and will need to be towed into contention, but will be a threat, if close. (3) SPINDOCTOR HANOVER scored a narrow victory in his most recent try and has hit the board in his last two; he can do the same here. (4) PURELY WICKED was aggressively handled in his first start in close to a month. He should be tighter coming into this contest this evening and draws well enough to hang around for a share.

Race 11: NW $25,000 IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(4) BROOKDALE JOHNNY was locked in behind horses looking for room at this level two starts back and angled out when it was too late. He faced tougher company in his most recent try from post 10 and I’m willing to toss that effort out the window. Tonight, he is reunited with JMac, who guided him to a victory on 1/11 and this appears to be a good spot for the two of them to get their picture taken once again. (7) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER showed good wheels at the end of his mile in his most recent effort and looks to be rounding into form. He’s a danger to bottom out this field if he’s on his game. (3) GENTLEONMYMIND worked out a favorable trip but was unable to go by the pace-setter who got things his own way. He is coming off consecutive, 2nd-place finishes and draws well enough where he should work out a favorable trip once again. (2) ARMOR SEELSTER worked out a tough trip at this level two starts back, where he was trying to find room up the inside but couldn’t find a seam. He’s coming off a win and should be feeling confident. (8) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE got everything his own way in his most recent try when he went gate-to-wire in a winning effort. He might not be able to get to the front as easily in this current spot, so I’ll pencil him in for a share.