Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 1/4

Final 2024 Top Pick Stats: 653 – 2041 / $3,530.30 (-$551.70)

Best Bets: 95 – 184 / $306.20 (-$61.80)

Spot Plays: 42 – 183 / $356.90 (-$.10)

Best Bet: WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH (7TH)

Spot Play: HOWMAC MAXIMUS (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4/2,7/1,2,7/4,5,6/7,10 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,3/4,5,9/1,7,9/4,9/2,6 = $14.40

Pick 6: 4,5,6/7,10/2,3/4,5,9/1,7,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 1,2,7/4,5,6/7,10/2,3 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,7,9/4,9/2,6/2,10 = $4.80

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $13,000 LIFETIME **$75,000 Pick 5**

(4) SPINDOCTOR HANOVER raced okay here on 12/21 and I think he exits one of the best races of any in here. Borth will likely race him aggressively tonight and he gets top billing to kick off the Pick 5. (2) CONTROLTHEOUTCOME and (9) LONGSHOT PANIC finished right together on 12/21 but the former draws better tonight and the latter is 0 for 16. I’ll use Controltheoutcome in the Pick 5 and Longshot Panic underneath. (5) THE BURKETONRANGER’s form doesn’t thrill, but he is worth a look at a price moving into Budd’s barn tonight.

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Race 2: NW 2 RACES OR $30,250 (OS $46,250) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS NOT AVERAGING $1,085 PER START IN 2024

(7) T H BOOMTOWN tipped his hand on 12/21 with a huge late burst in his local debut coming off a four week absence. He followed that up with a crushing win and I’ll call him to repeat here. (2) JMR SPEAK AWAY was in tough in the Valedictory series. He fits much better here, and Henry will likely put him in play leaving the gate. He is the other one that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (4) WORLD REVIVAL closed for 2nd behind the choice last week. He should be passing horses late in this mile, too; using underneath. (1) ZEBS KRAFTY was driven hard last week when 4th to the choice. I think he looks for a trip here and he is in the exotics mix.

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Race 3: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME - Pick 4

(7) ROMAN GLADIATOR qualified well preparing for this initial start for trainer Lester and I’ll give him the nod over another obvious contender, (1) BLAZING CRUISER. The latter might have scored a massive upset if he had more real estate last week. That was an improved effort on his debut, and he will probably be the one to fend off tonight. (2) CORPORATE BUSINESS tried Gold company in his second start in the summer and his comeback race was good. He is another in with a shot that merits a look for multi-race tickets. (5) WILLIE B fired a 28 1/5 kicker in his second start. He can close for a share tonight.

Race 4: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) - Pick 6

(6) HOWMAC MAXIMUS raced well in defeat to a dominant winner in the Pop Up final and he gets top billing here leaving from the best post. (5) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER got an impossible trip in that same race, and he draws much better now. He can improve sharply in this spot, and he can offer some value for multi-race tickets in a spot where he is likely to go off as an overlay. (4) BETTER BE GOUDA raced tough on the engine while setting solid fractions last time. He is another that should be in the mix that is worth using on multi-race tickets. (3) BEYOND BETTER will likely close from the back and take another slice tonight.

Race 5: NW $4,550 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $10,950 LAST 10 STARTS

(10) KOLBY TWO STEP, dropping several class levels here, will likely get sent on a speed mission by Henry; top call. (7) MOMAS SON BYRNE also drops, and Drury will likely look to put him into play leaving the gate. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (2) BETTERHAVEMYMONEY no doubt needed that start on 12/28 after missing more than a year. He can improve enough to land in the exotics tonight. (6) SAULSBROOK IAN is another dropper that figures to be in the mix but as the morning line choice, I will fade him for multi-race bets.

Race 6: NW 2 RACES OR $30,250 (OS $46,250) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS NOT AVERAGING $1,085 PER START IN 2024 - Pick 5

(3) GIGITYGIGITYGIGTY won from post 10 in a 12-horse field which is no easy feat at this track, and he was bet heavily that night. I don’t think this NW2 is any tougher and I’ll give him the call to repeat. (2) BETTOR BE EARLY gets off post 10 and he can get an easier trip in this spot. I’ll toss him on multi-race tickets. (1) LOTTO MAX had a clear shot from the pocket in the Valedictory final and he didn’t gain. I’ll play to beat him here. (5) BRIGHTSIDE MASEO can close for another small share here.

Race 7: NW $17,250 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: STARTERS FOR PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS LAST 3 STARTS. AE: MARES

(5) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH drops to a likely spot here and Travis Henry need only point him to the front and keep turning left; top call. (9) LAMBORGHINI LOU, claimed for $50K, steps up but he has been sharp for several weeks and he is worth using at a price here. (4) WHEELS ON FIRE has been racing better recently and he should get a solid pace to stalk here; using. (3) CONTROL THE POWER has been on fire the past couple of starts, but he faces much tougher this week; small share predicted.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $86,250 (OS $96,500) LIFETIME - Pick 4

(9) TRICKY MCWICKY had a good campaign last year and I like that he kicked in 27 1/5 in both qualifiers prepping for this 2025 debut. I’ll take a price stab with him. (1) WALLACE HARTLEY took a leg of the Valedictory series, and he fits well vs. these. He will likely be aggressively handled by Borth, and he is probably the one to beat in here. (7) BET THE BB beat a decent field last time and he is a threat to repeat. He is another that should be considered for multi-race tickets. (2) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER will likely sit another trip racing close to the front and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 9: PREFERRED. HANDICAP. PP 1-7 DRAWN & PP 8-9 DRAWN

(4) NO CONTROL was finishing 3rd in the Prix D’ete when last seen and he lands in a Preferred here that came up a bit soft. He is certainly fast enough for these, and he can win if he is fully cranked. (9) POWERTRAIN raced tough in defeat to improving (8) WHATCHULOOKIN AT. There’s a reason these two were forced to draw for the two outside posts and either is obviously capable in this spot. (3) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE is sharp, and he can close for a slice in this spot.

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Race 10: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $21,000 LIFETIME

(2) PURELY WICKED came close to catching undefeated 2 to 5 shot last week and I’ll give him the nod to get his second win in this 10th start. (6) STEELWHEEL HANOVER couldn’t withstand the eventual winner’s pressure in the third 1/4 in that same race. He can get a trip starting from the widest post tonight and he is worth using at a price. (3) ADMIRAL DEO got a good pace trip to break his maiden. I prefer to use him underneath in this tougher field. (5) BOOTS should get another good trip racing close to the front; using underneath.

Race 11: NW $9,700 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $65,000 IN 2024 (MIN 15 STARTS)

(2) HUNGRY MAN drops to a logical spot here and he should get an aggressive steer from Davis; top call. (10) H F PANS SHADOW raced well in the recently concluded Pop Up series and he can contend here despite drawing widest; using. (5) HESINCONTROL fits okay here, and he should be in the exotics mix racing from close range. (1) WOODMERE ROLLNPOP is a trip horse that will likely follow along and rally for a slice. (3) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA is in solid form, and he is a good one to use underneath.