Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 1/28

Top Pick Stats: 35 - 117 / $179.40 (-$54.60)

Best Bets: 6 - 11 / $23.70 (+$1.70)

Spot Plays: 2 - 11 / $8.50 (-$13.50)

Best Bet: PROCRASTINATOR (4TH)

Spot Play: SOUTHBEACH HANOVER (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 5,6/1,7/1,5,7/3/1 = $2.40

Late Pick 5: 1,4,5,8/7,8,9/3,6/3,4/1,5 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 3/1/1,4,5,8/7,8,9 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 3,4/1,5/3,5,6/2,6 = $4.80

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5*

(5) CAPTAINS PICK raced well in his sophomore debut when coming off a five-month break, but the winner of that race was just too tough. He should have a big shot tonight. (6) CATCHMEONTHEBEACH was in against tough winners in three straight and this should be an easier spot for him. He is the logical alternative to the choice. (8) MIKRON is back in with maidens and he raced well at this level two starts back; price look. (7) BACK NINE CHARGE qualified well for this but the focus will likely be on getting around and staying on stride. I can see him closing for a slice.

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Race 2: F&M that have started for a purse of $$9K or less in 1 of L4 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(7) LITTLEBEARCAT comes to play every week and she is the one to fend off here. (1) ROCKINWITHCUSTARD comes in off a sharp win and her good gate speed should help her overcome the inside draw; using. (4) MY MOTHER PEARL has missed some time but she fits well at this level and I can see her closing for a share tonight. (8) BEST HONEY HANOVER produced a good back 1/2 here on 1/6 but this will be only her third race in more than five weeks which is a bit concerning; using on the bottom.

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Race 3: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(1) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT got a needed clean line last week and he closed well at the end of the mile. Jones should be more aggressive with him now and he is the one to beta here. (7) HEAD HONCHO won two of his last three and he gets the leading driver. He is an obvious threat in a field with no standout. (5) ROYAL JK got used a couple of times on debut and he was done by the top of the lane. A better trip can put him much closer tonight. (8) SAULSBROOK BOOMER takes frequent shares and he is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 LT - Pick 4

(3) PROCRASTINATOR really motored when he found room late and he gets J Mac now while in his sharpest form; call to repeat. (6) DELIGHTFUL LEADER steps up but he was an easy maiden breaker and he can be an Exacta factor here. (9) FLIGHT ONEFORTYSIX has been in some tough races recently and he would likely be rated higher if he drew better. From out there, he will likely close from the back for a small slice. (1) AVID fits well here but he has been off for close to two months; small share predicted.

Race 5: F&M NW $12,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $15,000 or less L4 AE: NW2 in L7

(1) JKS ROLLIN BABY drops from the top class and Filion will be aggressive with her. She will be tough to pass once she makes front. (5) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP was flying late last week and she gets Macdonald back now. She can add some value to the exotics on the class jump. (2) TWIN B SUNKISSED will likely be closer early here with McNair driving. She can be part of the Tri. (6) MAJOR LEAGUE N’s strategy is never a secret. She will lead for as far as she can. I think the choice wrestles command from her in the second 1/4 and she sticks around for a small slice.

Race 6: NW $18,000 L5 or $28,000 L8 - Pick 5

(8) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER took no prisoners last week and he did week to hang around for 2nd considering how aggressively he was driven. He gets J Mac back now and he is the one to beat. (4) ARMOR SEELSTER was first up in a fast race and he could do no better than 4th despite pacing a 27-flat kicker. He could do here if he gets a decent trip. (5) CADILLAC BAYAMA was right there last week chasing a strong winner and he is another in with a shot here. (1) CODENAME CIGAR BOX draws better and he should be closer early as a result of that post relief. He should be in the exotics mix tonight.

Race 7: NW $3,000 L5 or $8,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $9K or less L4

(9) ST LADS CASH was too far back in the Popup final and his sub-55 back 1/2 could only get him 4th. He should have a big shot tonight if he gets put into play earlier, as expected. (7) STONE CARVER hasn't hit the board yet this year, but this is a much easier spot tonight and he should wake up vs. these. (8) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES was able to leave quickly twice from the rail so you know he is sharp; price look. (4) NO BETTER JOY raced well at big odds last week and he can take another slice here.

Race 8: NW $12,200 L5 or $24,000 L10

(6) SECOND BRUISER got pounded at the windows but he wasn't allowed to clear when he made his move in the third 1/4 and that sealed his fate. Expecting him to get an easier trip here, he gets top billing. (3) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR is much better at this level and he figures to improve sharply tonight; using. (2) BEYOND BETTER gets bet every week but he doesn't win often. He will likely close late for another share tonight. (1) COMMANDING OFFICER dropped and popped and he is probably another that will close late for a slice in this spot.

Race 9: PREFERRED - Pick 4

It's kind of remarkable that (3) SAULSBROOK VICTOR has won four straight in this class since taking a 1:49 2/5 lifetime mark on 12/17 yet he has not been odds-on once. Tonight, he likely gets bet to even money or lower and he remains the one to beat. (4) SAILBOAT HANOVER really flew late with Macdonald driving two starts back then he was too far out of it last time. He could upset tonight. (6) WHEELS ON FIRE can't seem to solve the choice and he likely takes another slice here. (5) WOODMERE STEALDEAL tries hard every week and he can close for a small share here.

Race 10: NW $2,100 L3

(1) HES SWIFT is only 1 for his last 27, but this is a good spot for him and a drop-and-pop is likely tonight. (5) JET ROCK’s effort from the 10-hole in the Popup series was good last week and he should be a threat starting from one of the best posts now. (2) GOING FAST figures to be better tonight on the drop; using underneath. (7) ST CHARLESFIREBALL, a high percentage winner racing on the Maritimes, is worth a look for the exotics going for Team McNair in this local debut.

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Race 11: 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

(6) SPORTS FAN was a victim of trip last week. Expecting a more aggressive approach this time, I'll give him the nod. (5) THE BOSS SAID flew late and he will get there one of these weeks; using. (3) HOWIES MAN was better last week but going first up isn't his trip. I can see him being a threat racing on the front end tonight. (9) JOE RICH was overbet last week based on a trapped in trip the previous week. He likely closes late for another slice here.

Race 12: NW $6,000 L5 or $12,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $15K or less L3 - Mandatory Payout Jackpot High-5

(2) ROCKME ROLLME takes a big drop and he beat better than these both six starts back and 10 starts back. He picks up the leading driver and he is the obvious key to the race. (6) ROLL WITH THE FLOW raced tough in defeat and he has been sharp for several weeks. Drawing best here, he figures to be right there again. (4) DR JOE was really good in the recently concluded Popup series and his potent late speed should get him a good share here. (12) IDEAL PERCEPTION starts behind the choice which should allow him to get positioned in midpack early. He can close for a good share here. (3) FLASH CUBE will likely sit another inside trip and rally for a spot in this High-5. (9) CLEVER CHARACTER and (10) SEA LAIRD would both be rated higher if they drew better but they are worth using in the bottom rungs of the High-5.

My tickets: 2/3,4,6,12/3,4,6,12/3,4,6,9,10,12/ALL = $76.80 and 6/2/3,4,12/3,4,9,10,12/ALL = $19.20