Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/6

Top Pick Stats: 216/621 = -$52.40

Best Bets: 15/58 = –$12.20; Spot Plays: 17/58 = +$4.60

Best Bet: LADY HESS (RACE 9)

Spot Play: TJ BLISS (RACE 2)

Early Pick 5: 4,6,7,8/8/5,9/7/1,2,6,7

Late Pick 5: 5,9/2,4,8/3,6/5/2,4

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME.

(7) ODDS ON BRAHMASTRA is one that will be making his debut for his new connections. He was taking on some tough rivals at Hoosier Park and is one I’ll side with in his first start in Ontario. (4) ETHERIUM PARTY sat on the cones and angled out late to just get up in the closing strides. He draws well and will have every chance to double up here. (6) AQUINAS HANOVER made a miscue last time out and is one that could be a factor if we see him forwardly placed off the car like we did a handful of starts ago; using. (8) MAGICAL BET was aggressively handled and tired to be 3rd. He has gate speed and is a threat by virtue of that.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(8) TJ BLISS made her first start for new trainer Carmen Auciello and put forth a very good effort. She got shuffled turning for home, but showed plenty of late interest when she was shown racetrack. I’ll give her top honors here to get the job done. (2) LAYDEE FREIGHT was used harder off the gate than we’ve seen in starts prior. She was used multiple times in what was a first-over try and faded to be 4th. She can be a big factor with a better trip and merits respect. (1) WHO ARE YOU didn’t get the best of trips in her most recent and finished up nicely to be 7th. She can rebound here and be a bigger factor underneath. (4) IBETYOUAKISS finished a solid 4th and was never able to get involved as a result of drawing outside. She gets pp4 and should be closer from the word go.

Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000.

(5) STEAMBOAT SPRINGS was good in defeat last time out and has seemed to get better over his last few starts. He draws the center of the gate and is one I’ll side with to breakthrough this evening. (9) EARLY ACTION had an extremely tough trip in his latest and still prevailed in spite of that. He’s been razor sharp and will look to continue that moment going back to Carmen Auciello’s barn. (8) HOWMAC VICTOR showed gate speed from an outside draw and stuck around to be a solid 4th. He draws similar to last week and is one that can pick up a good piece underneath. (2) SHANES DREAM was one I liked last time out but was never able to get involved despite an inside draw. She never looked as sharp as she did in some starts prior but can hit the ticket.

Race 4: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME.

(7) BARBADIAN BREEZE is one that I liked last time out in what was a comfortable, winning score. He draws worse than he did last week – and although this group is slightly tougher, I’m expecting another gate to wire victory in this spot. (1) CHEF gapped that final turn as they approached the stretch drive but showed some good pace in the straightaway. He had to try and maneuver around some traffic trouble but is one that showed interest late; he can grab a big piece here. (4) SUNSET LOO hasn’t shown a big desire to finish off his miles or go past that last horse just yet, but is handy enough to get situated in a good spot early. That should be enough to hit the ticket. (2) LOU WHO rallied nicely to be 3rd in his latest and is one that should have every chance to land somewhere on the ticket.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(1) COCO JO JO sat on the inside and angled out at the head of the lane. She showed good life at the end of her mile and with no clear standout in this race given this group’s most recent efforts, she’s one I’ll side with and hope she can work out a clean trip. (2) CENTURY JAMILA didn’t look great qualifying and didn’t put forth the type of effort in her first start back that we know she’s capable of. She could show improvement here and is one that merits respect as a threat if she pieces it together. (7) BLINDED BY DELIGHT never got a chance to get involved by virtue of an outside draw. She takes a small dip in class but will need a better trip to be more of a factor. (6) WESTERN WISH exits a qualifying effort as she makes her first pari-mutuel start since September. She draws well and is one that’s a danger given how handy she is.

Race 6: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME.

(5) CHOICE IS MINE has put forth solid showings in his first two career tries. He’s one that I think is ready for a bigger trip tonight and I’ll side with him to convert in a wide open affair. (9) BAJAN FIREFLY was solid in his career debut. I’m not sure what kind of trip he’ll be able to work out from the outside, but to me, he could be the most talented horse in a field that lacks a standout, and he’ll be a factor with the right trip. (4) JOSES TRIPLETS got things his own way last time out and tired to be 3rd. He was off nearly one month coming into that outing, but will come into this start having missed a few weeks. He’s going to be sitting close to the action and that might be enough to convert in a susceptible field, but I’m going to opt to play against him. (8) ELLINGTON was bet down as the choice last time out but rallied nicely to be a solid 2nd. He has raced well in his young career and will likely be closing for a share in this spot.

Race 7: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $15,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E).

(2) LEGION SEELSTER was used a few times from the outside draw and was a very, very, sharp 2nd. He draws better and is one I’ll side with off that sharp effort. (8) IKES DREAM will make his return back to Ontario after recent tries in PEI and NS. He will return on Lasix here and is one capable of a good effort if he’s at his best. (4) BEYOND BETTER will take a dip in class here after being a non-factor in his latest. He draws well and is one that will be heard from late. He can convert with the right trip. (9) PRIMARY DRIVER was never a factor whatsoever in his most recent. He likely needed that start and could end up hitting the ticket with a good trip.

Race 8: NW $15,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $32,700 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $100,000 LIFETIME.

(3) POWERTRAIN wasn’t a factor in the Open last time out in what was his first pari-mutuel start since April. He likely needed that tightener and I think he’s ready for a bigger effort this evening. (6) ARBITRAGE HANOVER was sharp in a 4th place try in the Open last time out. He will likely be the one to catch in this spot and is undoubtedly the one to beat. (2) PACINO HANOVER was solid in a 3rd place effort and is one that could be better with a target to chase, which he’ll most definitely get in this spot. (4) BLUE HUNT is coming off a sharp victory and is one that could end up being tough to haul down if he makes the front and keeps going. I don’t know if he can get that trip in here, though.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (OS 5) RACES OR $61,000 (OS $80,000) LIFETIME.

(5) LADY HESS is one I back last time out off what I thought was a good effort in her Ontario debut two starts back. She was relatively flat given the trip in her latest but shows up this start adding Lasix. She’s one I’ll side with in the event of a major bounce-back. (7) LA MIKI N will make her North American debut after shipping in from New Zealand and bought by new connections. She had a couple of sharp qualifying tries ahead of this effort and is a big time contender in this spot. (3) WICKED N SINGLE wasn’t a factor last time out but finds herself in a spot where she should have a chance to pick up a good piece; using underneath. (4) ROCKS SHADOW closed nicely to pick up a check last time out and she can do the same here.

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Race 10: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(2) DUBLIN DASHER was one that I backed last week off the class drop but he never got involved off the car. HE was even in that effort but takes a further drop down, and is one that should have every chance to convert here; top call. (4) LAMBORGHINI LOU rallied nicely to be 3rd in a mile he was never able to get involved in. He draws well and could be the biggest threat to the choice. (1) WHATCHULOOKIN AT converted in a spot where he probably should've, and fended off some rivals late in the stretch to do so. He has the ability to double up in this spot if he’s at his best and merits respect. (8) MYULTIMATE SNOWY A left out aggressively and hung around to be 3rd. He can grab a piece.

Race 11: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(3) AXIAL was sitting on a big effort in his latest and delivered for his backers. He faces similar company here and I’d expect him to double up yet again. (5) DOCS EARNEST has been sharp in his tries for new trainer Kayla Hendry, and he and Jonathan Drury have been a good pairing thus far. He is one that I’ll be using underneath and I’m expecting another sharp effort. (1) LYONS DUKEY was able to stay pacing throughout and that resulted in a solid, 2nd place finish. He can put forth another good effort here, but he loses Louis-Philippe Roy to the choice. (2) RBSTENACIOUS T tried a speed mission in his latest and faded to be 6th. He can secure a check with the right trip and is one I’ll throw in underneath. (6) NATIONAL TIER can hit the ticket late.