Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/5

Meet Stats: 356 – 1149 / $2,022.80 (-$275.20)
Best Bets: 54 – 102 / $175.70 (-$28.30)
Spot Plays: 20 - 105 / $171.60 (-$38.60)
Best Bet: SINTRA (10TH)
Spot Play: POINTS NORTH (2ND)
Early Pick 5: 1,8,10/1/6,7,9/7,8/2,3,5,9 = $14.40
Late Pick 5: 5,10/4,5/4,6,8/5,6,8/4 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 7,8/2,3,5,9/5,10/4,5 = $32
Late Pick 4: 4,6,8/5,6,9/4/3,8,9 = $27

Race 1: NW $8,300 L5 or NW $16,000 L10 **$100,000 Pick 5**

(8) EAST END was lights out here last week and he gets the call to repeat here moving up one class. Stablemate (1) MAJOR HILL comes back from Flamboro Downs with two game wins in his pocket and he fits this class well. He should be a threat leaving from the inside. (10) NICKLE BAG is in solid form and he could get a great trip here following Major Hill. He's the third one that I'll use in the early Pick 5. (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER can improve on the big track and he is one to consider for deeper Pick 5 tickets.

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Race 2: NW $22,000 L5 or NW $30,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLAIMING $55,000

(1) POINTS NORTH has been racing decently in the top class, even winning one six starts back, and he gets to face easier here. Expect Drury aggression. (9) H P NAPOLEON also drops out of the Preferred and getting away from Sintra should make him one of the top contenders here; Exacta factor. (2) POINTOMYGRANSON is sharp and he should get another good trip here racing near the front. He should be part of the Tri. (4) MONGOLIAN HERO N is hot but a couple of these at least will be tougher than he has been beating and I'll use him on the bottom.

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Race 3: HARVEST SERIES FINAL ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES

This should be a good betting race with several live options. I'll side with (7) LMC BUMBLE BEE who won the opening leg then skipped a week. She projects to get a nice trip stalking the leaders here. (6) SHESWILDNFREE dominated last week and she will likely be the one to catch here although the early pace should be faster with them going for $53,500. (9) SCORCHED ROMANCE has been stellar in this series to this point but she must overcome the 9-hole now. I'd demand a price. (10) MAGIC WANDA can get a small piece of this if she stays flat; using underneath.

Race 4: F&M NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10 - Pick 4

(7) BETCHA BABY drops and she gets Filion back here. She should wake up in this spot. I'll give her a slight nod over another class dropper (8) VILLAGE JAMIE, who should get put into play by Cullen leaving the gate. (2) LYONS HEDGEABET was close last time she raced this low on 10/23 but she is stuck on one win this year and I'm inclined to use her underneath only. (3) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY steps up off a good effort and I can see her landing in the Super tonight.

Race 5: F&M NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10

(3) THEE DESPERADO was a comfortable winner last time he raced this low and if he can keep his gait issues at bay, he should be tough to beat here. (2) MARQUIS VOLO has raced okay from the second tier post in two straight and he should be one of the main contenders here, (9) FLY BEYOND raced better at this level last week in his second start back and he is in with a shot here in a field with seemingly few real contenders. (5) TRIX AND STONES can contend for a share if he stays flat this week; using underneath.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES FINAL ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES - Pick 5

(5) LYONS TILT HANOVER has been lights out so far in this series with Harris taking no chances by moving her earlier in the miles. She should get the jump her on her main rival (10) ROSE RUN VICTORY. The latter comes off a strong winning effort and she is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (3) BIG MYRTLE paced a big mile last week considering she was out the route. She can get a piece of this. (2) NO WHERE TO HIDE had an adventurous trip but she still stuck around to take a share and she can be in this Super.

Race 7: NW $11,000 L5 or $25,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(4) SPORTSLINE was a predictable winner when moved into Moreau's barn last week and if he improves a bit more here his rivals could be racing for 2nd. (5) TORRIN HANOVER is always a threat at this level and he is the one that the choice will need to fend off. (6) PLAY JET RAY is as good as any of these when he produces his best effort but, in this spot, I prefer to us him underneath as he will likely be denied the lead early. (8) BETTOR B GOING fires home every week and he should be goo for another share here tonight.

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Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW5 or $95,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) POSEIDON SEELSTER missed a couple of weeks since ripping off a sizzling 1:50 4/5 winning mile, but if he can come close to repeating that effort, he will be tough to beat here. (8) INDICTABLE HANOVER did the tough roadwork and just missed last week. He's a contender here despite drawing widest. (4) REVOLT is in the mix every week and he should be part of the Tri here again. (5) GRAND POOBAH, with 11 slices vs. one win so far this year is a good one to use on the bottom at a price.

Race 9: NW2 or $37,500 LT

(6) COLD CREEK CABO faces decidedly easier here and Jamieson should get more aggressive with him in this spot; top call. (8) WINDEMERE FRANK has tallied 8 wins from 16 starts and has finished in the Exacta in 75% of his starts this year. He enters the Auciello barn and her merits a close look in his first local start. (5) LYONS LIBERTY was no match for the winner last week but no one was as he scorched to a fast win for this class. He isn't out of this. (1) GAMBLER PANIC comes off an even try at Flamboro. I can see him getting a good following trip and landing in the Super.

Race 10: PREFERRED

(4) SINTRA is too good for these right now and any result other than him notching a threepeat would be shocking. (1) WHEELS ON FIRE, 2nd to the choice last week, likely completes a chalky Exacta here. (6) EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN likely needed last week's start. I can see him hitting the board in this second start back. (3) TRACEUR HANOVER is capable of better and he will likely be closer to the leaders in this short field; small share predicted.

Race 11: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $54,000 LT

(9) CROSSCUT is one that I put on my watch list last week when he finished with pace but had nowhere to go in the final 1/8th of a mile. Understanding that this will be no easy task leaving from the widest post, the price should justify the risk and I'll swing for the fences with him. (3) REAGAN BLUE CHIP is in tremendous form right now and he is likely the one to beat here. (8) BEE TWO BEE demolished NW2 foes but he moves back up here and draws wide. I'll use him underneath this week. (4) WHITECOOKIE has been racing well in this class and he should take another share here. (5) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE typically leaves quickly to establish position then sits a trip to land a share; using on the bottom.