Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/30

Top Pick Stats: 571 - 1749 / $2,9997.70 (-$500.30)

Best Bets: 86 - 164 / $306.70 (-$21.30)

Spot Plays: 30 - 167 / $186.90 (-$147.10)

Best Bet: POINTS NORTH (5TH)

Spot Play: NYTRO J (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,8,10/2,8/1,2,3,7/4,6,9/4 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 2,4,6/7,9/1,5/7,10/1,4,6,9 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 4,6,9/4/2,4,6/7,9 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 7,9/1,5/7,10/1,4,6,9 = $6.40

Race 1: 2YO and 3YO colts and geldings NW2 or $15,000 LT **Gtd $100,000 Pick 5**

We get a very competitive field to kick off the early Pick 5 which makes me want to try to get a longer shot across to kick things off. (8) BET THE BB gets a better post and he has yet to throw a bad race in nine lifetime starts. He should be positioned better leaving the gate and he gets the call to upset. (10) ALLBETSONFRITZ just jogged at this level in the slop and McNair sticks with him over others tonight. He is probably the one to beat despite drawing widest. (3) ODDS ON KICKOFF kicked in 27-flat despite missing three weeks and he can be better tonight; using. (2) BRADY HANOVER is another that produced a big kick and he will offer a solid price stepping up to NW2. He is another that is in the mix.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(2) SHREDDAR is on a big roll, and he will be tough to beat here as he seeks a fourpeat. (8) GENTLEONMYMIND paced a 55 1/5 back 1/2 in the slop over a track rated two seconds slow and he has upset potential here. Consider him for Pick 5 tickets. (3) COLD CREEK GUERERO should be closer exiting a stakes series tonight. He figures to be in the exotics mix. (1) SPORTY BOB will likely sit an inside trip and land on the edges.

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Race 3: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $59,750 LT AE: 3YO 4YO 5YO CLM $50,000

(1) HEAD HONCHO comes off a decent effort where he was 2nd to a big chalk that got claimed. He stacks up well here and he gets the nod. (2) WOODMERE FENN looked good flying past the leaders to win at a huge price, but I wonder if the nature of the track that night helped him. I’d demand a price here. (3) BEACH TOUR figures to race close to the front again and that gives him a chance in this spot. (7) PALLADIUM HANOVER is likely helped by the short field here and he is a speed threat.

Race 4: NW $8,000 L5 or $18,800 L10 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(6) BACKSTREET GAMBLER drops and draws best, and he should get a more aggressive steer in this spot; top call. (4) CODENAME CIGAR BOX missed a check when he started from an outer post and he gets to drop here, too. Drawing well gives him a chance. (9) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER is in solid form, and he could get a setup here; using. (8) ROCKME ROLLME steps up off a loss, but it’s interesting to me that Macdonald sticks with him over others; using underneath.

Race 5: NW $16,000 L5 or NW $30,500 L10 AE: NW 10 or $100,000 LT

(4) POINTS NORTH meets a field he should handle on the class drop and he will likely head straight to the front and take no prisoners. (9) THE GREEK FREAK is another that figures on the drop but drawing post 9 again makes his chore tough. I can see him rallying late to complete the Exacta, though. (1) DUPREE HANOVER is in the mix every week and he should use his potent gate speed to get position then hold it to take a share. (3) H P MOMENTUM can pass a few of these late; price look for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $59,750 LT AE: 3YO 4YO 5YO CLM $50,000 - Pick 5

(2) NYTRO J paced a sub-54 back 1/2 over a sloppy track rated two seconds off last week and I’ll take a stab with him here in a race that looks like it can be won by a strong closer. (4) STORMALONG set solid splits wiring this class last week and he is the one to beat. (6) ACAPULCO SUNBURN made a move that looked like a winning one only to be overtaken by a rival that produced a huge stretch rally. He is a third contender to consider for multi-race tickets. (1) COLIGNY HANOVER comes off a decent effort and he can take another share in this spot.

Race 7: NW $1,950 L3 - Pick 4

(9) ROCKABILLY REBEL gets a big driver change to McNair here and he will surely look to send him right down the road on the class drop; top call. (7) BEYOND BETTER is the other dropper and he will be closing late but I wonder if it will be too late; Exacta factor. (6) FOREFATHER will likely deploy a closing style here coming off a break in stride. He can grab a share if he stays flat. (1) FLASH CUBE fits decently here but he has missed some time. I’ll use him on the bottom.

Race 8: Horses that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L3

(1) BETTER BE GOUDA looks best here after finishing 2nd at this level last week and he gets the nod. (5) BETTORBEFLYIN raced well with Henry driving here two starts back and he should be the main threat. (3) MR JOHN was used up early racing over an off track last time. He can be much closer here. (6) BLOCKBUSTER TRADE can close for another small share vs. these.

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Race 9: NW $15,000 in 2023

This is a good spot for (7) HES SWIFT who qualified fast enough to suggest he is ready to beat these coming off a rest. I’ll give him a slight nod over (10) SOMEWHERENTUSCANY, who is the obvious horse to beat coming off a facile win at this level last week at even money. (9) IM SPONGE WORTHY closed well to get 3rd last week and he is in the exotics mix again here. (6) SWEET DEISEL is capable of better than he showed last week, and I can see him sneaking into the Tri or Super here.

Race 10: NW $5,100 L5 AE: NW $43,500 in 2023

This is a tough race to end the late multi-race bets. (1) LOVEMYROCKINBIRD raced okay vs. better in his Mohawk Park return now he comes back in seven days and drops in class. I’ll give him a slight nod in a race full of possibilities. (4) BEACHIN LINDY made a big third 1/4 move then fended off the challengers in a solid effort to win at the bottom conditioned level. Moving up now ensures he will offer a good price and he could repeat. (9) SERIOUSLY HANOVER can improve sharply on the class drop and he is another that is useable on Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (6) FABRIZIO N raced better last time now he gets McNair back; price look. (8) THRILLING TIMES retains Macdonald coming off a win and he is in the mix for at least a share.