Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/21

Top Pick Stats: 632 - 1963 / $3,406.10 (-$519.90)

Best Bets: 94 - 180 / $301.20 (-$58.80)

Spot Plays: 41 - 176 / $352.00 (+/-$0.00)

Best Bet: POWERTRAIN (9TH)

Spot Play: HOLLYWOOD DEO (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,5,8/4/4,5,6/1,4/2,6,8 = $10.80

Middle Pick 5: 4,6/3,4/6,8/5/3,7,8 = $4.80

Late Pick 5: 6,8/5/3,7,8/2,5,6,7,8/2,3,5 = $18

Early Pick 4: 1,4/2,6,8/4,6/3,4 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 5/3,7,8/2,5,6,7,8/2,3,5 = $9

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, NW $4,550 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $8,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $1,510 P/S IN 2024 **$75,000 Pick 5**

(8) GOUDAWON took a costly shuffle after leading early and she didn’t find racing room until it was too late last week. Perhaps she will get better racing luck tonight if she blasts off the gate again; top call. (5) ONE LAST BET was following the choice and had similar bad racing luck due to several mid race lead changes. She too can have better luck tonight; using. (2) POWDER PLAY was used up early last time. She is capable of better if she gets an easier trip. She is another possibility for the early Pick 5. (3) IMA DOLL seems to fit well here but she has missed more that three weeks and she is one I will have to try to beat as the morning line choice.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED

Stablemates (4) PROHIBITION LEGAL and (1) SILVER LABEL stands out here and the nod goes to the former who seems to be the sharper of the two at the moment. (6) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN was a winner at this level two starts back but no match for the choice last week. I’ll use her underneath tonight. (5) CAVIAR N CRACKERS is sharp, but this is a tough spot for her; small share predicted.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW OF 5 RACES LIFETIME. AE: N/A $3,300 P/S IN 2024

(5) LEE LOO raced great twice in a row at huge prices, and she will likely offer another good price in this field. I’ll take a stab with her in a spot where several have a chance to win. (4) ANGOSTURA HANOVER exits the same race as the choice, and she will likely get a better trip here leaving from an improved post; using. (6) SHOOT THE WHISKEY is sharp, and she should be a threat leaving from the best post. She is yet another possibility for the early Pick 5. (3) CENTURY JAMILA figures to show speed and stay for a share again.

Race 4: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS NW $22,750 LIFETIME - Pick 4

Regally bred (4) HOLLYWOOD DEO looked good winning at first asking with a first up move and he gets the call to repeat off that nice effort. (1) T H BOOMTOWN brings a 7-race win streak with him from the Maritimes, and he hasn’t been beaten since 9/28. I don’t love that he has been off since 11/28, but he might be that good that it won’t matter; using. (2) RULE THE WEST converted a good trip into a win but it took him most of the lane to get past a noted hanger. I’ll use him underneath here. (7) HES STILL WATCHING will probably close from the back for another small slice.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $8,800 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $1615 P/S IN 2024. AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 LAST START

(2) GLENBORO fired a nice kicker last time and I think she blasts out to get the pocket behind expected leader (8) MAJOR LEAGUE N then passes her late. The latter is on a roll at Flamboro, but she could get weary late in the long Mohawk Park stretch. I think she will get chased down. (6) HOW MUCH is in peak form and her versatility is a plus. She is another in with a good chance. (3) FLIGHT CREW N sill probably sit and rally for another slice tonight.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME. WITH ALLOWANCES - Pick 5

$97,000 Lexington buy (6) BLAZING CRUISER is a 1/2 to McPleasant (a starter in Race 7 tonight) who won four races this track so far in 2024 and took a mark of 1:50 3/5. This is a good spot for this gelding to make his debut. He gets the nod. (4) CONTROLTHEOUTCOME finished well last time, and he seems to be coming around to his best form. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. 0 for 30 (7) PUFFS LAST SHADOW has a decent closing kick and he can come on late for a share here. $40,000 Lexington buy (9) WILLIE B is a full brother to Grin N Sin who won only twice in 88 starts but took 30 slices. I’ll use him underneath starting from the widest post on debut.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE

(4) MANHAWK fits great at this level, and he gets the call to repeat coming in off a strong first-over victory. (3) ULYSSES beat the choice two starts back and he gets post relief tonight. He will likely bridge the gap this week and finish closer. He is the logical alternative. (6) ZEBS CRAFTY will likely show speed again, but I don’t see him beating both of the top two choices; using underneath. (8) MCPLEASANT probably passes a few of these late to land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME. WITH ALLOWANCES - Pick 5

Debutant (6) TWIN B ALLIANCE is a 1/2 to two winners that were both ready to fire early and this colt appears to be well prepped for this initial start; top call. (8) ADMIRAL DEO is getting closer each start and he will graduate soon, maybe tonight? (7) STOPWATCH has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on more than one occasion. He is one that I must try to beat at this point. (3) SPINDOCTOR HANOVER has compiled a good record to date, and he can close for a share vs. these.

Race 9: PREFERRED - Pick 4

(5) POWERTRAIN stands out here with Ervin Hanover not in this field and he will likely get sent right down the road by Macdonald. (1) FORTIFY will likely get good position early in this mile and he will likely be the main threat to the choice. (3) POSEIDON SEELSTER finished just behind the choice last week and he can sit a good trip and get a share. (4) SAULSBROOK VICTOR should improve enough adding Lasix to land in the exotics.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,150 PER START IN 2024

This is a good spot for (7) MYSTIC WILD ROSE’s comeback and trainer/driver Hudon will likely put her into action early; top call. (8) NO MONEY HONEY comes in off an excellent effort where she was out a long way and still kicked home for 2nd, almost chasing down the winner that had opened up a big lead. Her issue is, she can’t seem to muster any gate speed. I wouldn’t take a short price here. (3) STONEBRIDGE DRAMA got stuck behind several rivals while the leader sped away from the field last week. She can be closer tonight. I’m not sure what makes (5) GRANNYS WATCHING the morning line favorite. She is a bet against for me.

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Race 11: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $61,500 LIFETIME. AE: 3 & 4 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $60,000

(5) LAMBORGHINI LOU got Borth in the bike on 12/7 and that made the difference. He looks good to repeat here. (7) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER will likely leave faster this week and that gives him a shot; using. (8) A CLASS YANKEE motored home to get 2nd behind the big chalk last week. He will likely be the one to fend off, but I don’t love the widest post for him. (6) LIKE A GLOVE fits better here and he should be in the exotics mix.

Race 12: NW $16,750 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $30,250 LAST 10 STARTS

Aussie invader (3) MYULTIMATE SNOWY A looked good in his lone qualifier, and I would be happy to take the 4 to 1 morning line quote, although he will likely get bet lower. (5) JACK PANIC fits better at this level and he will almost surely get driven more aggressively on the drop. He is only 3 for 41 this year, but he is in the mix here. (2) KOLBY TWO STEP drops, and he should get put into play vs. this group. He is capable if he brings something close to his A game. (1) THE GREEK FREAK steps back up off a gutsy win, but I don’t see him getting a 57 1/5 opening 1/2 in this race. I’ll play to beat him as the morning line choice. (7) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE will likely close to land in the bottom of the exotics again.