Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/19

Meet Stats: 380 – 1233 / $2,155.10 (-$310.90)
Best Bets: 60 – 110 / $194.80 (-$25.20)
Spot Plays: 22 - 113 / $180.40 (-$45.80)
Best Bet: ROSE RUN VICTORY (6TH)
Spot Play: MAN DONTFORGET ME (2ND)
Early Pick 5: 1,4,6/1,2,5/1,2,7,8/3,4/1,5 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 3/4,8,10/6,7/1,3,8,9/3 = $4.80
Early Pick 4: 3,4/1,5/3/4,8,10 = $12
Late Pick 4: 6,7/1,3,8,9/3/5,7,8 = $24

Race 1: NW $8,500 L5 or $17,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000 **$100,000 Pick 5**

(4) ON THE ROPES spent a lot of energy clearing to the front then he tired late on a night when the track wasn't particularly kind to leaders, He can bounce back from a better post here. (6) THE FIXER has a strong win record this year and this looks like a good spot for him. He should threaten in this spot; using. (1) HORSE TRADER produced a nice late rally to win on the barn change last week and he is worth a look for the exotics stepping back up a couple of levels. (9) B YOYO's recent form is uninspiring but he could wake up on the class drop here; consider for the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 2: NIAGARA SERIES 2ND LEG 3YO FILLIES

(2) MAN DONTFORGET ME is likely to show improvement coming back quicker and making her second start out of the Auciello barn and she gets the nod here. (1) FILTER HANOVER grinded her way to victory last week and she will likely be the one to fend off late. (5) TIPPERARY HILL was second to a prohibitive favorite in the opening leg of this series and she should be in the mix here tonight. (4) LAILA BLUE is likely to flash early speed again and she should stick around for a share in this short field.

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Race 3: NW $11,000 L5 or $24,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(2) PLAY JET RAY drops and moves inside and he shows a race at this level three starts back. I'll give him the nod in a race with several options. (1) EAST END got a good trip last week but the winner was too strong on the lead and nothing closed on him in the stretch. He should be a threat here starting from the inside. (7) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP made a nice wide move to win last week and he could get another great setup in this spot with a few leavers to his left; using. (8) REGAL SON paced a big mile uncovered on the rim last week but he draws worst here. He is possible, but I'd need a price from out there.

Race 4: NW $8,700 L5 or $17,500 L10 - Pick 4

(3) HEISMAN PLAYER came ready to play last week and produced a wicked late brush to nail the leader on the line. He jumps up two class levels which should help his price and he gets my nod. (4) EXIT SMILING drops and moves off the 9-hole and that makes him a contender here; using. (2) JKNR LIKETELL is another dropper who figures to improve in this spot but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (7) AWESOMENESS is capable of better and he gets a chance to show it facing easier; using underneath.

Race 5: NW3 or $59,000 LT

(5) CROSSCUT paced a big mile parked most of the way last week but the winner was just too tough. He has a good chance vs. these. (1) NATIONAL SPORT drew poorly in his last two starts in the Harvest series and you need only look three starts back to see what he is capable of when he can fire his best shot. He is a must-use for me. (8) BIG BULLY comes off a nice closing effort and he should be good for another share tonight. (2) BUSH MAN N hinted at a better effort in the final 1/4 last w Peek and he is another capable of making it into the Super here.

Race 6: NIAGARA SERIES 2ND LEG 3YO FILLIES - Pick 5

(3) ROSE RUN VICTORY dominated last week and she is clearly the filly to beat in this series although she is likely to be 1 to 5 again tonight. (1) DOCS HARMONY has improving form and she was a solid third to the choice last week and she should be an Exacta factor here. (5) BIG MYRTLE had a decent trip on the lead last week but she couldn't seal the deal; small share predicted. (2) CLASSYLANEPRECIOUS should sit another good trip here and land in the Super.

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Race 7: NW $12,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(10) WILD AND CRAZY GUY has a win and a second from the tricky second tier post in his last three starts and he drops back down to a level where he fits better. I'll give him a slight nod in a tough race. (8) DERF HANOVER is peaking right now and he should be right there again tonight racing on or near the lead. (4) DANCER HALL is capable at this level and he may get a good trip in a spot where he is likely to be driven more conservatively coming off a race where he broke. (9) MARQUIS VOLO is on a roll right now but he might be last at the 1/4 here; smaller share predicted.

Race 8: FILLIES AND MARES PREFERRED HANDICAP - Pick 4

(6) LIT DE ROSE scored as an inexplicable overlay last time, tripping out to roll by some winded leaders late. Her price drops here but her chances do not; top call. (7) SO MUCH MORE beat males last week and she is impossible to leave out facing mares again tonight. (1) IVANA FLYBYE N is in top form right now and she can come on late for a share here at a price. (4) GIAS SURREAL figures to come on late to take a share in this tougher spot.

Race 9: NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(9) ROCKME ROLLME takes a multi-level class drop here and his price will be helped by drawing widest; top call. (3) YACHT SEELSTER take a big step up but he comes off a dominating win in fast time and he is another who could provide a square price because of the class rise; using. (1) SPORTSLINE should be a speed threat again but I prefer to use him on the bottom in this spot. (8) TORRIN HANOVER comes in off a sharp win and he isn't out of this although I see him taking a closing approach here and coming on late for a slice.

Race 10: 5YO and Younger NW5 or $92,000 LT

(3) POSEIDON SEELSTER missed a month between starts but it didn't matter. He could be sharper this week and that will be ad news for his rivals; a fourpeat looms. (1) CORTEZ THE KILLER is hit right now but he couldn’t hold off the choice last week. He is in the exotics mix again. (7) GRAND POOBAH takes a share at this level almost every week and in a short field he should land a spot in the Tri or Super. (4) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE throttled easier last week but in this tougher spot I'll use him on the bottom.

Race 11: NW $5,200 L5 or $10,000 L10

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(7) SAMS A CHAMP A drops to a good spot here. This eight-year-old gelding was driven aggressively last time he raced this low and he took a win. Roy should have him rolling early. (8) DREAMFAIR MOXY is another class dropper who figures to be aggressive early here and he should have a say in the outcome. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN steps up off a sharp effort where he grinded out what appeared to be a tough first up win until he was nailed right on the wire. He's in the mix here. (6) TIGERS WAY is capable of a sharp late rally at this level and he should be used in the bottom rungs of the ticket. (1) DREAMY FELLA is in the mix every week since switching to the Auciello barn and he is another good one to use on the bottom here.